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Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition: Week 35 - First Week of September

I think the most recent week of data was considered to be part of July, since it ends in July. I noticed that you still had it part of June on the first post.



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I'm starting to wonder if Series X is going to reclaim America. One thing is for certain, the gap is definitely shrinking from last gen just about everywhere.



This really is a great thread!  Here are some of my thoughts on what has transpired so far.

Switch '20 vs. '21
Switch is only down in Europe.  Why is that?  When you look at the data for Europe, we see that '21 lost major ground due to the release of Animal Crossing in '20.  Europe had more stock on the shelves when Animal Crossing released compared to other regions, so it didn't get short supplied nearly as quickly.  As a result '20 made the biggest gains on '21 in Europe.  Now that we are past the biggest part of the Animal Crossing juggernaut, '20 has nothing left to really compare to '21.  This year's Switch sales will pull ahead of '20, although we many not really see that until the OLED model releases.

PS3 2014 vs. PS4 2021
This is the comparison that I find the most interesting.  We know that PS3 sales were backloaded, so we expect PS3 to be ahead here.  But do we really expect PS3 to be ahead by this much?  PS4 legs really seem to be disappearing, but let's break it down by region:

PS3 2014 & PS4 2021 comparison (first 6 months)

PS3PS4net change% change
US         325,180         314,090-11,090-3%
Europe         797,809         598,430-199,379-25%
Japan         297,518           63,173-234,345-79%
RoW         527,052         168,749-358,303-68%


Look at the regions that have the biggest % change: Japan and RoW.  They are not buying PS4 at all.  These are also the regions where the Switch is clearly dominating the whole market by a huge margin.  People are not buying PS4, because they are getting Switch instead.

People say that Playstation is not competing with Switch, but the data says otherwise.  It just didn't say it the moment the Switch released.  The impact doesn't happen instantaneously, because the average person does not buy a new system every year.  Instead people buy a new system every 6-7 years if they own one current system, or about every 3 years if they own two.  In the end though, Switch is eating into the PS4's legs very seriously in Japan and RoW.

I point this out, because I think this also is an indication of the PS5's fate, especially in Japan and RoW.  I expect PS5 to continue to sell well for the rest of the year in every region.  However, I don't expect PS5 to do nearly as well as PS4 in lifetime sales, especially in Japan and RoW.  These regions are dramatically going over to the Switch, and I don't expect them to switch back to Playstation.  Instead I expect PS5 sales to peak either this near or '22 in these regions.  Switch is most definitely competing with Playstation, but you have to look carefully to see it.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

Look at the regions that have the biggest % change: Japan and RoW.  They are not buying PS4 at all.  These are also the regions where the Switch is clearly dominating the whole market by a huge margin.  People are not buying PS4, because they are getting Switch instead.

People say that Playstation is not competing with Switch, but the data says otherwise.  It just didn't say it the moment the Switch released.  The impact doesn't happen instantaneously, because the average person does not buy a new system every year.  Instead people buy a new system every 6-7 years if they own one current system, or about every 3 years if they own two.  In the end though, Switch is eating into the PS4's legs very seriously in Japan and RoW.

I point this out, because I think this also is an indication of the PS5's fate, especially in Japan and RoW.  I expect PS5 to continue to sell well for the rest of the year in every region.  However, I don't expect PS5 to do nearly as well as PS4 in lifetime sales, especially in Japan and RoW.  These regions are dramatically going over to the Switch, and I don't expect them to switch back to Playstation.  Instead I expect PS5 sales to peak either this near or '22 in these regions.  Switch is most definitely competing with Playstation, but you have to look carefully to see it.

Finally someone who thinks like me about this, and sees correctly that Switch is competing with Playstation and that the people are looking between both when they are doing the choice what to pick, despite Switch being different type of console, It's still gaming. And most people are not buying two consoles for gaming.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 18 July 2021

Week 27 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down in the United States; Up overall.

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It is Week 27 and the First Week of July! We are officially in the 2nd Half of the Year!!

The story remains the same for the PlayStation and Xbox consoles.

The Switch managed to get a win this week, snapping a 5 week losing streak, though I have a feeling that will change one way or the other depending on adjustments.



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@PAOerfulone Shouldn't the most recent week of data be considered the second week of July? The prior week should be considered the first week of July because that week ends in July.

Nice to see the Switch up a bit, but I do definitely see it losing to 2020 before the Switch OLED releases. Even without it, I felt that the Switch would lose the lead by around the time September rolls around. There's nothing releasing on Switch this September to counter the 500,000 it sold last year when 3D All-Stars released.



Torpoleon said:

@PAOerfulone Shouldn't the most recent week of data be considered the second week of July? The prior week should be considered the first week of July because that week ends in July.

Nice to see the Switch up a bit, but I do definitely see it losing to 2020 before the Switch OLED releases. Even without it, I felt that the Switch would lose the lead by around the time September rolls around. There's nothing releasing on Switch this September to counter the 500,000 it sold last year when 3D All-Stars released.

No, because in the prior week the majority of the days were in June, 4 days to be exact, while the remaining 3 days were in July. Thus, since the majority of the days were in June, it counts as a June week. If the week ended on July 4th, meaning the majority of days were in July, THEN it’d be a July week, but that’s not the case.



Week 28 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in the United States and Europe; Down in Japan and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

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Some adjustments came around this week.

Due to Sony's latest PS5 figures, the console was adjusted down from its previous numbers. The Switch was also adjusted just slightly down, we'll see how that changes when Nintendo posts their updated figures later tonight. Meanwhile, the Xbox Series was adjusted up.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 05 August 2021

Both PS4 and XB1 have been adjusted as well



This looks like a lot of work, especially when you have to go back and change things when they are adjusted. Thanks for your effort!

Switch just got adjusted down 400k, more work. ;-;

Last edited by Zippy6 - on 05 August 2021