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Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition: Week 35 - First Week of September

Can't wait to see the adjustments!



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Week 16 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in the United States, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down in Europe; Up overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in Japan; Down in the United States, Europe, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

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Apologies for the extended wait.

As you could imagine, I had A LOT of adjustments to make to the comparisons in light of Sony's financial figures and the April NPD figures... That and my mind was on the NFL Draft (Go Niners, baby!! Welcome to the Trey Area!!!) I finally finished all the adjustments at around Tuesday afternoon, and by that time, we were already 2 days away from not only the next batch of weekly numbers, but also NINTENDO'S financial figures. So I figured I'd wait it out to see if any MORE adjustments needed to be made before finally posting an update. (They weren't.)

With that said, let's dive in!

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Sony: The adjustments have proven to be VERY kind to Sony's systems. The PS4 was adjusted up to the point where it's actually putting up a decent fight against the PS3 in the U.S. There's still not much to say about that comparison, but at least the PS4 is putting up an effort in this regard. Meanwhile, the PS5 has kicked it to another gear and starting to put some considerable distance between itself and the PS4. It still has some catching up to do in Japan, but in all the other regions and overall, it's proving to have stronger momentum than the PS4 did at this point in its first year. 

Microsoft: The adjustments were beneficial to Microsoft as well. Although, it was only to the Xbox Series, which continues to build its own lead over the Xbox One of 2014. Towards the 2nd week of June was when the Xbox One had the Kinect taken out and a $100 price cut to go along with it, which notably raised its baseline. However, that baseline is still below what the Xbox Series is selling now with stock issues. So the Xbox Series is proving to be a big success for Microsoft in that regard.

Nintendo: The adjustments were also beneficial to Nintendo as the Switch saw its sales raised a bit, however, not enough to where it could take a week away from 2020, post-Animal Crossing. And now, we can see its lead starting to chip away worldwide, and Japan has been a dead-even, back-and-forth battle. Now if there's one thing I think the Switch will have going for it in the coming months is that its summer schedule is slightly better than last year's (at least in my view) between Mario Golf and Skyward Sword HD among their top titles for the summer, that should help 2021's chances in maintaining or perhaps building its lead.



Now that we're 16 weeks in, enough time has passed and we've got our first financial reports of the new year from Sony and Nintendo, it's time for my personal favorite part of this thread, PROJECTIONS!!!

At this point in time during their respective years, the PS3, PS4, Xbox One, Xbox Series, and Nintendo Switch sold through these percentages of their sales:

PlayStation 3 '14 - 37.72248446%

PlayStation 4 '14 - 22.03296402%

Xbox 360 '14 - 30.72062864%

Xbox One '14 - 16.40180156%

Nintendo Switch '20 - 23.87841713%

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If each of these percentages were to hold for all 5 systems this year, these would be the estimated final yearly totals for all 5 in 2021.

PlayStation 4 '21 -

Worldwide: ~2,226,388 units

Spoiler!
United States: ~421,002 units
Spoiler!
Europe: ~961,913 units
Spoiler!
Japan: ~278,364 units
Spoiler!
Rest of the World: ~555,108 units

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PlayStation 5 '21 - 

Worldwide: ~16,132,895 units

Spoiler!
United States: ~5,455,646 units
Spoiler!
Europe: ~6,684,807 units
Spoiler!
Japan: ~1,114,550 units
Spoiler!
Rest of the World: ~2,877,892 units

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Xbox One '21 -

Worldwide: ~1,057,853 units

Spoiler!
United States: ~578,983 units
Spoiler!
Europe: ~270,216 units
Spoiler!
Japan: ~3,810 units
Spoiler!
Rest of the World: ~204,837 units

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Xbox Series '21 -

Worldwide: ~10,493,908 units

Spoiler!
United States: ~6,114,968 units
Spoiler!
Europe: ~2,760,442 units
Spoiler!
Japan: ~63,340 units
Spoiler!
Rest of the World: ~1,555,157 units

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Nintendo Switch '21 -

Worldwide: ~30,841,923 units

Spoiler!
United States: ~10,211,150 units
Spoiler!
Europe: ~8,064,467 units
Spoiler!
Japan: ~6,958,860 units
Spoiler!
Rest of the World: 5,607,447 units



Tremendous work!! Thank you so much!!



PAOerfulone said:

Now that we're 16 weeks in, enough time has passed and we've got our first financial reports of the new year from Sony and Nintendo, it's time for my personal favorite part of this thread, PROJECTIONS!!!

At this point in time during their respective years, the PS3, PS4, Xbox One, Xbox Series, and Nintendo Switch sold through these percentages of their sales:

PlayStation 3 '14 - 37.72248446%

PlayStation 4 '14 - 22.03296402%

Xbox 360 '14 - 30.72062864%

Xbox One '14 - 16.40180156%

Nintendo Switch '20 - 23.87841713%

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I'm guessing that's the global percentage (16 weeks sales/total 2020 sales *100)

But looking at your Switch Japan projection I believe you have applied the global percentage to extrapolate the regional 2021 totals?

I think this would still result in your global projections being correct, but might mean your regional projections are skewed, eg from your tables in the first post the Switch in Japan 2021 is basically neck & neck with 2020, I believe to be more like 29% of yearly Japan sales. (US & Europe are probably a bit lower than 23.8% to compensate)

So for Japan if you keep to just the regional figures:
2020 at 16 week = 1,865,457
2020 total = 6,383,954
16 week percentage = 29.22%
2021 at 16 week = 1,869,354
2021 projection = 6,397,290

That said as I mentioned earlier in the thread, as you are comparing a 52 week year to a 53 week, Switch 2020 will basically be starting the year with 459k advantage (216k in Japan), to project for 2021 it might be better to compare the 16 weeks ending 24th April 2021 with the 16 weeks ending 25th April 2020. It won't make a big difference to the global projection (in fact for Switch it will lower it slightly as it sold more on that w/e 25th than it did w/e 4th Jan) but it will match the weeks up better.

So for Japan with 52 week comparison:
2020 at 16 week = 1,760,800
2020 total = 6,167,442
16 week percentage = 28.55%
2021 at 16 week = 1,869,354
2021 projection = 6,547,667

And for global 52 week comparison:
2020 at 16 week = 6,841,845
2020 total = 27,834,889
16 week percentage = 24.58%
2021 at 16 week = 7,364,563
2021 projection = 29,961,479

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 07 May 2021

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Week 18 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in the United States; Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down in Europe; Up overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in the United States: Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

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It's officially the first week of May and following more adjustments, we're seeing leads grow and shrink all over the place.

The Switch is seeing its lead get smaller and smaller and it will take a big hit next week. We'll see if Mario Golf and Skyward Sword HD in June and July will be able to help 2021 withstand 2020's onslaught and hang on to its lead is we enter the dog days of summer.

The PS5 and Xbox Series continue to steadily add to their leads while the PS4 and Xbox One continue to fall further behind their predecessors.



Next week is probably the last of the big hits Switch 2021 will get from Switch 2020 until probably the holidays. Switch 2021 lead will probably shrink to about 250k after next week. From then on, I can see Switch 2021 being more competitive and perhaps gaining back some ground against Switch 2020.

Mario Golf in June and SS HD in July should definitely help. First console Mario Golf in almost 2 decades. I could see SS being a big system seller, potentially outselling the Wii version in its launch quarter.

Big E3 news could also help bump up Switch numbers and hopefully there will be some big titles this holiday. If Switch Pro & BOTW 2 launch this year, maybe 2021 could win (personally, I see Switch Pro & BOTW 2 launching simultaneously on March 25, 2022, the 12th week of the year, which is the same week we got ACNH & MH:R).

Either way, I am impressed at how well Switch 2021 has done against Switch 2020 so far. I don't think it's likely for 2021 to beat 2020, but I definitely have not ruled it out. We'll definitely know more in less than a month. Maybe if the Switch Pro launches next year, they could cut the price of the OG Switch and Switch Lite this September. I'm sure Pokemon will bring a big bump to Switch sales. Should sell more than any Switch game released last holiday.



PAOerfulone said:

Week 18 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in the United States; Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down in Europe; Up overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in the United States: Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

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It's officially the first week of May and following more adjustments, we're seeing leads grow and shrink all over the place.

The Switch is seeing its lead get smaller and smaller and it will take a big hit next week. We'll see if Mario Golf and Skyward Sword HD in June and July will be able to help 2021 withstand 2020's onslaught and hang on to its lead is we enter the dog days of summer.

The PS5 and Xbox Series continue to steadily add to their leads while the PS4 and Xbox One continue to fall further behind their predecessors.

Famitsu numbers has Switch up 300k this year compared to last, while this comparison has it at only 25k. Are VGC numbers that much off (they're usually quite similar to Famitsu) or have you put in the wrong number somewhere?



Mbolibombo said:
PAOerfulone said:

Week 18 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in the United States; Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down in Europe; Up overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in the United States: Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's officially the first week of May and following more adjustments, we're seeing leads grow and shrink all over the place.

The Switch is seeing its lead get smaller and smaller and it will take a big hit next week. We'll see if Mario Golf and Skyward Sword HD in June and July will be able to help 2021 withstand 2020's onslaught and hang on to its lead is we enter the dog days of summer.

The PS5 and Xbox Series continue to steadily add to their leads while the PS4 and Xbox One continue to fall further behind their predecessors.

Famitsu numbers has Switch up 300k this year compared to last, while this comparison has it at only 25k. Are VGC numbers that much off (they're usually quite similar to Famitsu) or have you put in the wrong number somewhere?

Different weeks counted.

Famitsu ends on Sundays for a start, VGC weeks end on Saturday (though this doesn't make a big difference except when those days cross specific holidays)

Famitsu figures are also more recent, the latest week is for w/e Sunday May 16th, VGC latest week is for Saturday May 8th

Main thing though is that for VGC week 1 of 2021 is w/e Sat 9th Jan, whereas for Famitsu week 1 of 2021 is w/e Sun 3rd Jan.

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So these are the actual date ranges being compared:

Famitsu:
20 week ending May 17th 2020 vs. 20 weeks ending May 16th 2021

VGC figures PAOerfulone is using:
18 weeks ending May 2nd 2020 vs. 18 weeks ending May 8th 2021


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This means VGC figures for 2020 include the week that crosses the New Year, which is a big sales period in Japan, wheras the figures for 2021 don't include that week. I do think it's a mistake when doing direct weekly comparisons, but that week would have to be put somewhere for yearly comparisons.



Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 22 May 2021

Pardon my impatience, but ima make quick projection like with last weeks results:

Edit: Added 2017 and 2018 to the comparison

Switch 2017 *Launched in March

As of week 18: 3.215 million

Percentage of total: 24.51%

Total sales for year: 13.118 million

Switch 2018

As of week 18: 3.535 million

Percentage of total: 21.64%

Total sales for year: 16.339 million

Switch 2019 *Switch Lite Release in September

As of week 18: 4.26 million

Percentage of total: 22.07%

Total sales for year: 19.296 million

Switch 2020

As of week 18: 7.746 million

Percentage of total: 27.38%

Total sales for year: 28.294 million

Switch 2021

As of week 18: 8.227 million

(Assuming same percentage applies from 2017)

Total sales for year: 33.57 million

(Assuming same percentage applies from 2018)

Total sales for year: 38.03 million

(Assuming same percentage applies from 2019)

Total sales for year: 37.28 million

(Assuming same percentage applies from 2020)

Total sales for year: 30.05 million

Given Holiday sales last year were somewhat underwhelming, the road to 30 million and beyond remains clear.

Last edited by CheddarPlease - on 23 May 2021