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Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition: Week 16 - Nintendo Financial Data + First Projections!!

 

Which Comparison are you most looking forward to?

'14 PS3 vs. '21 PS4 1 1.59%
 
'14 PS4 vs. '21 PS5 12 19.05%
 
'14 X360 vs. '21 XOne 0 0%
 
'14 XOne vs. '21 XSXS 6 9.52%
 
'20 NSW vs. '21 NSW 44 69.84%
 
Total:63
HigHurtenflurst said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

With this week, it now has been an entire year where the Switch hasn't dropped below 350k in the weekly sales anymore. I'm not sure if even the DS managed that feat.

Looking at the charts there is a 1 year period from middle of Jan 2007 to middle of Jan 2008 where it had 2 weeks below 350k, one of them in March is basically a statistical tie (347k is within the margin of error as far as i'm concerned) & the other is the post Christmas January supply shortage.
And if you extend the period an additional year to 2009 its only 11 total weeks, 5 of them being within the margin of error & most of the rest due to January shortages.

Still if we take the figures as gospel, DS's longest streak was 40 weeks above 350k (April 7th 2007 - Jan 5th 2008)


Switch has also had 1 week ending August 2020 that was 336k (maybe it was higher when first reported but adjusted down) so the current streak is technically 32 weeks, so 8 more weeks should beat the DS record.

Ultimately the 350k barrier is arbitrary, if we move it to 290k for example then the Switch has currently recorded 53 weeks, which is far better than any other system apart from the DS (next best are Wii at 21 weeks & PS4 at 18 weeks), but the DS managed it for 159 weeks.

Damn, missed that week. That was just before OBON week, so probably just holding back in Japan that made it miss the mark.

Still, even with this blunder only 8 more weeks to go for the record, nice. 



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PAOerfulone said:

Nintendo - A newsworthy week for the Nintendo Switch as it has offically passed the PlayStation Portable on the all time Video Game Console sales list. And it is primed and poised to past the Game Boy Advance next week, and then we'll have Monster Hunter Rise the week after going head-to-head with Animal Crossing: New Horizons from last year. It will almost certainly do monstrous numbers in Japan, the only question is how much will that boost extend to the other regions?

Don't know about anywhere else but in ireland it is currently number 1 and 2 on the eshop charts so thats a good sign.



Week 11 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in Japan and the Rest of the World; Down in the United States and Europe; Down overall.

Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions.

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Sony - The PS4 has officially dropped below the 40k baseline and was outsold at as close of a 2:1 ratio as you can get by the PS3. The PS5 baseline dipped a little bit as we are beginning to see a sort of teeter-totter trend these past 4 weeks for the PS5. Still easily solidly ahead of the PS4 however. Next week will prove to be a test to see if it can stay ahead. The Famitsu thread revealed that PS5 sales for the next week jumped drastically. No doubt it got a little bit of leftover boost from the release of Monster Hunter Rise. 

Microsoft - The Xbox One continues its free fall as it gets thrashed by the 360 again and for the first time since Week 1, the Xbox Series fails to outsell the Xbox One. This week marked the release of Titanfall which gave a huge boost the Xbox One sales and should have a carry over towards next week as well. 

Nintendo - The Nintendo Switch has now officially surpassed the Game Boy Advance to move into 9th place on the list of Best Selling Video Game Consoles of All Time. It gets a substantial boost as well as it prepares for the launch of Monster Hunter Rise next week. 2021 has won every single week thus far, but next week will be its first true test.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 02 April 2021

2021 is looking good with its baseline of ~400k units per week. So despite its YOY lead being bound to shrink in the coming weeks, 2021 should be able to weather the storm and remain competitive with 2020 for a long time. Right now I'd call the biggest factor of uncertainty for 2021 to become Switch's new peak year the situation that we don't know how many weeks 2021 will have in VGC's tracking. 2020 had 53 weeks, so it's more likely that 2021 will have only 52 weeks.

Regardless, 2021's ace up its sleeve is a hardware revision which we'll get on top of a stronger holiday lineup than last year's. So even if 2021 falls behind 2020 at some point, the outlook for its backend is notably more favorable. But it's possible that 2021 may stay ahead for good, because 2020 ran into shortages during May and June which resulted in a baseline below 400k units for a good while.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

PAOerfulone said:

Week 11 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in Japan and the Rest of the World; Down in the United States and Europe; Down overall.

Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Sony - The PS4 has officially dropped below the 40k baseline and was outsold at as close of a 2:1 ratio as you can get by the PS3. The PS5 baseline dipped a little bit as we are beginning to see a sort of teeter-totter trend these past 4 weeks for the PS5. Still easily solidly ahead of the PS4 however. Next week will prove to be a test to see if it can stay ahead. The Famitsu thread revealed that PS5 sales for the next week jumped drastically. No doubt it got a little bit of leftover boost from the release of Monster Hunter Rise. 

Microsoft - The Xbox One continues its free fall as it gets thrashed by the 360 again and for the first time since Week 1, the Xbox Series fails to outsell the Xbox One. This week marked the release of Titanfall which gave a huge boost the Xbox One sales and should have a carry over towards next week as well. 

Nintendo - The Nintendo Switch has now officially surpassed the Game Boy Advance to move into 9th place on the list of Best Selling Video Game Consoles of All Time. It gets a substantial boost as well as it prepares for the launch of Monster Hunter Rise next week. 2021 has won every single week thus far, but next week will be its first true test.

Sony is a force that can't be stopped , PS5 always up. Sony really has an amazing console.Xbox must be down but it's to be expected, will rebound once Xbox releases an exclusive AAA game? maybe Hellblade 2? Most are Series X sales. Sony is on Fire PS5 flexing it.



I game on all consoles and PC

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RolStoppable said:

2021 is looking good with its baseline of ~400k units per week. So despite its YOY lead being bound to shrink in the coming weeks, 2021 should be able to weather the storm and remain competitive with 2020 for a long time. Right now I'd call the biggest factor of uncertainty for 2021 to become Switch's new peak year the situation that we don't know how many weeks 2021 will have in VGC's tracking. 2020 had 53 weeks, so it's more likely that 2021 will have only 52 weeks.

Regardless, 2021's ace up its sleeve is a hardware revision which we'll get on top of a stronger holiday lineup than last year's. So even if 2021 falls behind 2020 at some point, the outlook for its backend is notably more favorable. But it's possible that 2021 may stay ahead for good, because 2020 ran into shortages during May and June which resulted in a baseline below 400k units for a good while.

2021 should be the 52 weeks ending 1st Jan 2022 as I understand it. So a YOY direct comparison would be the 52 weeks ending 2nd Jan 2021.

That means VGC firgure for 2020 the Switch had a 459k advanatage as it had to include that extra week ending Jan 4th 2020, so for 2021 anything above 27,840,000 means the Switch's new peak.



Week 12 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Up in Europe and Japan; Down in the United States and the Rest of the World; Up overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down in the United States; Down overall.

Nintendo Switch: Down in all regions.

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The Monster Has Risen!!!

That's right, Week 12 marks the official release of Monster Hunter Rise for the Nintendo Switch. So, let's not waste any time and get right into that.

Nintendo: With the release of Monster Hunter Rise, Switch hardware as sharply increased to nearly 750k for the week. This boost is obviously a big win to close out the first quarter of the year and would absolutely be a win across the boards... If not for the fact that during Week 12 of last year, we got Animal Crossing New Horizons, which absolutely blew everything else out of the water with sales cracking the coveted 'million' mark. As a result, this is the first week of the year where the Nintendo Switch is actually Down compared to last year. Thankfully, it's managed to build a big enough lead over the previous 11 weeks to the point where it still maintains a roughly 1 million advantage. However, the coming weeks and post-launch legs of Monster Hunter Rise could very well tell us how the rest of the year and this comparison could unfold. We'll see if the 2021 is able to hold off and hang on to its lead, or if 2020 starts to chip away.

Sony: The boost isn't exclusive to Nintendo it seems as Sony saw a sharp rise in PS5 sales from the previous week, with Japan sales nearly doubling the previous week. Japan, unironically, is Monster Hunter's biggest region. Obviously, a tale-tale sign that there is very much an audience for a mainline Monster Hunter game on PS5. Perhaps we will see it further down the road. But for now, it's a split battle this week as all 4 regions were split with Europe and Japan going in favor of the PS5, with the U.S. and the Rest of the World going against it. However, Europe and Japan was strong enough to give the slight worldwide victory this week to the PS5 by a slim margin. The PS4 vs. PS3 comparison continues as it has been, with the one region that may look to be competitive being the U.S. region. While the other regions were deficits in the 5-10k range. The U.S. was barely over 1k. And with the PS3 baseline looking to drop in the coming weeks in the U.S., perhaps this is the one region where the PS4 can actually be competitive.

Microsoft: Unfortunately, it looks like that boost didn't extend to Microsoft. While the Xbox Series is up from the previous week and goes back to its winning ways over the Xbox One '14, that has more to do with more stock than anything else. It actually dropped in Japan which... is not saying much. Speaking of not saying much, the Xbox One puts up another stinker against the 360. It's comical at this point.



Week 13 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Up in the United States, Europe and the Rest of the World; Down in Japan; Up overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Down in all regions.

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We are now in Week 13, which is also the final week of March this year. Ironically enough, we also got NPD figures for the month of March and adjustments to go along with them!

The PS4, PS5, and Xbox Series were all adjusted up. The Xbox One remains the same. While the Nintendo Switch was very barely adjusted down, but it's so miniscule that you probably wouldn't have known about it if I hadn't told you!

With these adjustments and new figures, the PS5 has officially taken the lead over the PS4 and is now selling ahead of it, joining the Xbox Series in consoles selling ahead of their predecessors. Meanwhile, the PS4 and Xbox One, despite favorable adjustments, continue to fall further behind THEIR predecessors. And the Switch continues to be the Switch, albeit, at a lower rate than this time last year. While Monster Hunter is quite... the monster, it is proving to be no match for Animal Crossing, which was on an entirely different level of its own. And the boost will last for a little while longer and as a result, Switch 2021 will likely see an upcoming losing streak where its lead over 2020 could be in jeopardy. That is, of course, not pending any adjustments that come n the wake of Nintendo's next financial report and Fiscal Year Earnings due on May 6th. 



Week 14 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Down in all regions.

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We are officially in the 1st week of April, which means we are now over a quarter of the way through the year! As it stands, the PS4 and Xbox One continue to lag behind their predecessors in their post-successor launch years. The PS5 maintains a slim advantage so far over the PS4 in its first year on the market, while the Xbox Series enjoys a bigger lead over the Xbox One in its first year. The Nintendo Switch of this year continues to see its lead shrink over last year as Monster Hunter, while quite... the monster, does not quite measure up to Animal Crossing. It's going to be a tough battle ahead for 2021 as it tries to hang on to its lead.



Adjustments must be made after the new March NPD leaks and Sony's financial reports.