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Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition: Week 17 - Minor Adjustments

So based on what I've been seeing, the regular Switch model is now becoming more and more readily available for purchase. Before you'd literally needed to wait the as soon as stores received the Switch in stock to be able to get one, but now you could nearly easily get a 300$ Switch whenever you want.

This could either mean that Switch demand is now finally starting to decline to levels where more Switch's will be available to purchase now in 2021, or that Nintendo has ramped up production even more the past few months to get the Switch more readily available. I'm leaning more towards the first option since I doubt Nintendo a year after AC and the pandemic Nintendo finally decided to ramp up production to meet all demand, plus I don't think Nintendo is really able to produce enough Switch's to do this. Nintendo last year could've easily broken the DS's record in sales if there was more stock but it seems like Nintendo could only produce so many Switch's as it seems like 30Million in one year is maximum capacity for them. So I'm leaning more towards a decline in demand now.





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I initially thought that Series would sell 8.5-9 million this year but if they keep the good performance and they manage to have Starfield launch this year I think they could sell 10 million.



javi741 said:

So based on what I've been seeing, the regular Switch model is now becoming more and more readily available for purchase. Before you'd literally needed to wait the as soon as stores received the Switch in stock to be able to get one, but now you could nearly easily get a 300$ Switch whenever you want.

This could either mean that Switch demand is now finally starting to decline to levels where more Switch's will be available to purchase now in 2021, or that Nintendo has ramped up production even more the past few months to get the Switch more readily available. I'm leaning more towards the first option since I doubt Nintendo a year after AC and the pandemic Nintendo finally decided to ramp up production to meet all demand, plus I don't think Nintendo is really able to produce enough Switch's to do this. Nintendo last year could've easily broken the DS's record in sales if there was more stock but it seems like Nintendo could only produce so many Switch's as it seems like 30Million in one year is maximum capacity for them. So I'm leaning more towards a decline in demand now.

During 2020 Nintendo ramped up their production from ~20m the year before to ~28m and they weren't going to decrease production to 2019 levels in 2021. The sell-through data we have from Japan, the USA and the UK tells us that Switch is selling better during the January to February period than a year ago, so when more consoles are sold while at the same time there's more stock at retailers, it clearly points to higher production levels than a year ago.

Adjustments to production levels aren't made on the fly. It usually takes months until an ordered increase materializes in the supply chain. Switch's increase during 2020 belongs to the biggest ones that have ever been made in video game history, right up there with the Wii and DS, and ahead of every other console. It also makes no sense to look at 30m as some sort of general ceiling; Nintendo would produce more if they expected the console to sell at even higher levels, but that would be very bullish on their part. A year ago you could consider 30m the ceiling for the year 2020, simply because the required logistics in assembly wouldn't allow for a bigger increase in comparison to the year before.

As for demand in 2021, it's going to be more evenly spread across the year due to the lack of extraordinary circumstances we had last year. We won't see the same peaks and valleys as last year, but instead a higher and more stable baseline for most of the year, topped off by a stronger holiday season. Whether or not that will be sufficient to exceed 2020's sales for the year has to be seen, but 2021 should land in the ballpark of 24-30m.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

javi741 said:

So based on what I've been seeing, the regular Switch model is now becoming more and more readily available for purchase. Before you'd literally needed to wait the as soon as stores received the Switch in stock to be able to get one, but now you could nearly easily get a 300$ Switch whenever you want.

This could either mean that Switch demand is now finally starting to decline to levels where more Switch's will be available to purchase now in 2021, or that Nintendo has ramped up production even more the past few months to get the Switch more readily available. I'm leaning more towards the first option since I doubt Nintendo a year after AC and the pandemic Nintendo finally decided to ramp up production to meet all demand, plus I don't think Nintendo is really able to produce enough Switch's to do this. Nintendo last year could've easily broken the DS's record in sales if there was more stock but it seems like Nintendo could only produce so many Switch's as it seems like 30Million in one year is maximum capacity for them. So I'm leaning more towards a decline in demand now.



Nintendo having supply issues now in Japan.  And Spain



thank you once again for your threads



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Week 6 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions.

Well, that was a quick and easy summary. 

With the release of Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury, Switch sales saw a big rise from last week as they are back over 400k. But Nintendo weren't the only ones who were planning on shipping extra units for this week. In addition to the Nintendo Switch having another 100k+ advantage this week, the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series each saw noticeable bumps in sales, especially the former, as they both achieve their largest victories so far this year. Looks like Mario felt like spreading the wealth. The Xbox Series adds to its growing lead over the Xbox One, and the PS5 nearly cuts the PS4's lead in half. Both new-gen systems also saw higher adjustments, which adds to their yearly sales. Looks like all members of the Big Three are clicking on all cylinders (outside of manufacturing of course.)

The PS4 and Xbox One continue to fall further behind their predecessors with no signs of letting up. It'll be curious to see how much further their legs will fall as Sony and Microsoft continue to focus more and more on their new gen consoles, and how those cut legs will effect the PS4 and Xbox One's final totals. If this keeps up, it'll just add to my doubts as to whether or not the PS4 will even manage to catch the Game Boy.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 26 February 2021

6 weeks down, 6 weeks left until Godzilla/Animal Crossing vs. King Kong/Monster Hunter takes effect. This will be a losing battle for Switch 2021, but with the buffer it's building I wonder how competetive it can be and how close it can stay before getting some help on the back end of the year.



Week 7 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Down in the United States; Up in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Up Overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in the United States, Europe, and the Rest of the World; Down in Japan. Up Overall.

Another one bites the dust, darlings. As the late, great, Freddie Mercury would say.

The PS5 has almost completely caught up and overtaken the PS4, with its largest win of the year to date. It will almost certainly pass the PS4 and take the lead next week thanks in large part to its rising stock and growing baseline in Japan, of all places. Which, despite being the home country of PlayStation, has been its weakest market. 

In a similar boat as the PS5, is the Xbox Series, which continues to add to its growing lead over the Xbox One. And given the fact that at this same time in 2014, the Xbox One was lagging considerably behind the PS4, and with numerous consoles sitting on shelves, this is proving to be quite the turnaround for Microsoft from the previous generation. 

The 8th gen twins continue their rapid decline into obscurity as another week sees them fall further behind their 7th gen predecessors. It looks like the Xbox One will limp towards 50 million, and the PS4 continues to struggle to catch the Game Boy.

The Nintendo Switch, despite being behind in Japan this week, continues to add to its worldwide lead, which saw it boosted thanks to adjustments that were made to last year's totals, bringing it down in the first 2 months of the year, but up overall. Which means it has a bigger lead now, but later weeks will put up tougher battles. 



PAOerfulone said:

The PS5 has almost completely caught up and overtaken the PS4, with its largest win of the year to date. It will almost certainly pass the PS4 and take the lead next week thanks in large part to its rising stock and growing baseline in Japan, of all places. Which, despite being the home country of PlayStation, has been its weakest market. 

The PS5 has no chance whatsoever to take the lead next week, because the upcoming week contains the PS4's launch in Japan which puts the global total well above 400k.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
PAOerfulone said:

The PS5 has almost completely caught up and overtaken the PS4, with its largest win of the year to date. It will almost certainly pass the PS4 and take the lead next week thanks in large part to its rising stock and growing baseline in Japan, of all places. Which, despite being the home country of PlayStation, has been its weakest market. 

The PS5 has no chance whatsoever to take the lead next week, because the upcoming week contains the PS4's launch in Japan which puts the global total well above 400k.

I forget this.

It paints a new view about the massive Ps5 sucess.