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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS5 Data Analysis: JAN Update (PS5 has the 5th best First January)

UPDATE: January year 1

Hello everyone, here is the DAMA profile for the PS5 this month.

Obviously short stock had a big impact on this report, but it is still interesting to analyze:

Some key Highlights:

1)PS5 officially passed the Atari 7800 lifetime sales, the next target is the Dreamcast with 8.2M (it took the PS4 7 months to reach 8.2M).

2) The PS5 is only behind the 3DS and the NS on the first ever Holiday of each console.

3) The PS5 currently has a gap advantage of 457K units over the PS4

4) 5 Consoles had a better first December than the PS5. This shows the impact that stock had this launch for the PS5.

5) The record for best first January is 1.3M by the Wii. PS5 should be able to ship more than this.

Here is a graph of the first holiday season for all available consoles:

Bonus question: Will PS5 be able to sell more  than the Wii on January (1.3M)?.

Here is the first big sign of the sales power of the PS5. Up to now it is selling everything it ships, so if it is able to produce at least 300k units each week, then 1.2M should be well within its range of possibilities. This can be a photo finish.

 

Last edited by dmillos - on 12 February 2021

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Hi Everyone, continuing with the Data analysis of the PS5, here is a look at what January could possibly look like.

First lets look at how all consoles sold during the same weeks of the PS5 Week 5-8 (these are month aligned, so we look at the NS holiday season as well)

We have that the PS5 sold very similar to the XOne and also somewhere in Between the DS and the Wii. I don't think that the XOne was as supply constrained as the PS5, but I do believe that the Wii had a similar situation, so I think we can look at what happened to the Wii for better reference.

I also think that right now companies should be able to produce more units than what they produced before, but corona might severely limit those capabilities.

Now let's look at week 9-12 for all consoles:

The XOne sold only 267K units, but I don't think these weeks will be similar for the PS5, like I said, I believe it should be more similar to the Wii. I think the million dollar question here is how much can Sony produce and ship. Without Corona I think there is no doubt that PS5 would break this record, but with limits in shipping, manufacturing, and selling. There has to be an impact still. 

My Spidey sense tells me that it should be between 800-900K but that is not fun, so my bet will be for 1000K-11000K. I want the PS5  to break records.

Some of you might also be wondering what the Gap chart looks like with this new Update, here it is:

The PS4 was able to beat the PS5 for a 6th consecutive week. The PS5 still has a 228K lead.

Week 9 was 188K for the PS4 so if I want my prediction to be correct, I really hope the PS5 stops this streak and starts turning this chart around.



dmillos said:

Hi Everyone, continuing with the Data analysis of the PS5, here is a look at what January could possibly look like.

First lets look at how all consoles sold during the same weeks of the PS5 Week 5-8 (these are month aligned, so we look at the NS holiday season as well)

Some of you might also be wondering what the Gap chart looks like with this new Update, here it is:

The PS4 was able to beat the PS5 for a 6th consecutive week. The PS5 still has a 228K lead.

Week 9 was 188K for the PS4 so if I want my prediction to be correct, I really hope the PS5 stops this streak and starts turning this chart around.

I think PS4 might take 1 or 2 more weeks, then unless Sony is having severe difficulties with the supply chain the gap should level off & start to increase.



HigHurtenflurst said:

I think PS4 might take 1 or 2 more weeks, then unless Sony is having severe difficulties with the supply chain the gap should level off & start to increase.

Hi @HigHurtenflurst you were correct, the PS4 did manage to stay ahead another week. 

The gap is now at 190k this lead is enough to last the PS5 a few weeks, so maybe by then, the stock issues will improve and it may never reach negative values:

Now with the bet for this thread, I think things are complicated. There are only 3 weeks left in january, so it should be hard for the PS5 to reach very good numbers: