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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch, PS5 and Series X/S - What 9th gen console will sell most this Holiday?

 

Which 9th gen system will sell the most this Holiday?

Switch 95 67.38%
 
PS5 40 28.37%
 
Series X/S 6 4.26%
 
Total:141

Switch by a wide margin. It sold close to 9 mil in Nov + Dec last year, and the new consoles won't get close to that.
In fact here's my prediction: Switch will sell more in Nov + Dec than PS5 and Xbox Series combined.

Ofc the Switch gets a headstart because the other systems aren't released at the beginning of November and without that I wouldn't be making that prediction.
My concrete predictions for Nov + Dec sales:
Switch - 9,5 mil
PS5 - 5,2 mil
Xbox Series - 3,4 mil



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Switch is in the prime of its lifecycle and PS5 and XSX need time for ramping up so this won't be much of a fight.



Marth said:
Switch is in the prime of its lifecycle and PS5 and XSX need time for ramping up so this won't be much of a fight.

A more interesting question is, can ps5 and Series X|S beat the Switch? Can enough systems be shipped?



Bandorr said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

"What does then?" and "What causes a generation change?
When a company launches a successor that is on the market for at least 4 years, then that system is in a new generation.  The first company to do this starts the next generation.  That's the way it has always been.

"The Switch is considered Gen 9 because The WIi U was a massive bust."
The Switch is considered Gen 9, because it is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS.  Both were Generation 8 systems.  The Gamecube was a massive bust and the Wii was still next gen.  The Saturn was an even more massive bust and the Dreamcast was considered next gen.  A failed system still counts as long as it is supported for a whole generation.  That is the way it has always been.

"If they had back to back bust would the Switch have been Gen 10 then?"
The N64 and Gamecube were both failed systems, and they both counted for a whole generation.  The Wii was still a Generation 7 system.

"Why is the X1X not considered a new generation?"
Because it has the same game library that the normal XBox1 does.  It's just an upgrade like the DSi or New 3DS, and these have never caused a new generation.

Well written post that answered all my questions. Thank you.  I hadn't considered the success of the N64 or gamecube before.

Do you think it is possible we will see generations with only one console? If one releases one every 4 years and the others every 7 or 8 we may end up with empty generations.

Anyways those we all quite helpful so thanks.

I think how we define both console and generation will likely change a lot in Generation 10 (i.e. PS6 generation).  Nintendo and Microsoft are changing the console market in dramatic ways.  Nintendo has their hybrid system which is clearly extremely successful.  It's somewhat like both a home system and a handheld system, but really it's a new thing entirely.  Microsoft is emphasizing Gamepass/xCloud and that is going to be somewhat successful if for no other reason than they just bought a bunch of game studios.  I think the PS6 is going to have to be some kind of significant response to what either Nintendo or Microsoft is doing (or maybe both).  I don't think the PS6 can just be another more powerful iteration like we got with PS1-PS5.

So, we are just going to have to wait and see how Generation 9 plays out, but it may be the last time we get traditional home consoles with games sold separately like Generations 2-8.  So, this may not directly answer your question, but I'm just saying these kind of questions may be moot in a few years.



@Bandorr just stop pussyfooting around it, its obvious the Switch isn't a gen 9 console



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Bandorr said:

Well written post that answered all my questions. Thank you.  I hadn't considered the success of the N64 or gamecube before.

Do you think it is possible we will see generations with only one console? If one releases one every 4 years and the others every 7 or 8 we may end up with empty generations.

Anyways those we all quite helpful so thanks.

I think how we define both console and generation will likely change a lot in Generation 10 (i.e. PS6 generation).  Nintendo and Microsoft are changing the console market in dramatic ways.  Nintendo has their hybrid system which is clearly extremely successful.  It's somewhat like both a home system and a handheld system, but really it's a new thing entirely.  Microsoft is emphasizing Gamepass/xCloud and that is going to be somewhat successful if for no other reason than they just bought a bunch of game studios.  I think the PS6 is going to have to be some kind of significant response to what either Nintendo or Microsoft is doing (or maybe both).  I don't think the PS6 can just be another more powerful iteration like we got with PS1-PS5.

So, we are just going to have to wait and see how Generation 9 plays out, but it may be the last time we get traditional home consoles with games sold separately like Generations 2-8.  So, this may not directly answer your question, but I'm just saying these kind of questions may be moot in a few years.

It's a fine answer.  That's why I think of switch as more Gen 1 - start of a new beginning kinda thing.



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Well, the NPD Group disagrees with your assessment on what gen the Switch belongs to, but that's neither here nor there.

The Switch will definitely remain #1 in Japan and will likely remain #1 by a comfortable margin in the U.S./NA. Europe may be more competitive, though. PlayStation is ridiculously popular there, and is the one region where the Switch has underperformed relative to the PS4. However, given the PS4's launch there, it is unlikely to have a launch that bests the Switch's holiday performance. And even if the PS5 does edge out the Switch in Europe, the Switch will more than make up for it in NA & Japan.

Unless the Switch experiences massive year-over-year declines and/or the PS5's launch absolutely shatters the PS4's record-setting launch, the Switch is nearly guaranteed to remain #1 globally throughout the holiday season, likely by a very significant margin, and will probably remain #1 through most of 2021.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 02 October 2020

Switch's holiday sales have averaged around 9-10m that in itself raises the question if both XSX and PS5 combined will be able to compare let alone just one platform.



Between PS5 and XS? PS5 for sure.



Since when does a launch console stand a chance against a successful console close to it's peak? The Switch will sell the most, without question.



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