By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Japanese Financial Expert predict that Sony will able to sell 200 Million PS5 (lifetime sales)

Tagged games:

 

will PS5 able to surpassed PS4 lifetime sales

Yes 14 15.73%
 
No 58 65.17%
 
close 15 16.85%
 
Not much 2 2.25%
 
Total:89

This expert analysis must be from another planet.



Around the Network
Marth said:
RolStoppable said:

Are you able to translate it?

There are translation services out there.

While the artcle talks about PS5 and 200M it is more in the line of "this is the potential customer base that PS5 could reach thanks to the existing Playstation userbase since PS2 days and the potential of growth thanks to esports related titles and activities.

But also they predict 12M first year (up from 10M originally) and 20M second year for PS5. (with PS4 around 9M this year and 5M next year)

They also talk about a whole lot of other stuff like Switch and Capcom performance. This is not a PS5 exclusive article.

He's factually incorrect on this one, no Playstation console had a userbase of 200 million, let alone a persistent 200 million userbase since the PS2.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

This might age as poorly as the switch will fail predictions.



Analysts might understand more about a whole company or market as the average guy knows about but they don't know more than as example people on this forum about potential PS5 sales.

That's why I never understand why people on gaming forums talk so much about the opinion of analysts.

You guys spend sometimes hours a day just to talk about Playstation. There is no reason why he should understand the potentisl of Playstation better than you.







Jumpin said:
Marth said:

There are translation services out there.

While the artcle talks about PS5 and 200M it is more in the line of "this is the potential customer base that PS5 could reach thanks to the existing Playstation userbase since PS2 days and the potential of growth thanks to esports related titles and activities.

But also they predict 12M first year (up from 10M originally) and 20M second year for PS5. (with PS4 around 9M this year and 5M next year)

They also talk about a whole lot of other stuff like Switch and Capcom performance. This is not a PS5 exclusive article.

He's factually incorrect on this one, no Playstation console had a userbase of 200 million, let alone a persistent 200 million userbase since the PS2.

200M is not in the context of the Playstation userbase.

Basically this is what he says. "If the PS4 users buy a PS5 and esports athletes and viewers buy into the PS5 and people who bought Playstation systems previously also get the PS5 then the sales will exceed 200M"

It is a very hypothetical best case scenario of where he sees the ceiling for potential PS5 sales. He is only talking about the possibility and what it would take for it to happen. But does not claim at all that this is a sure thing.

And in the very next part he talks about the negative profitability of the console.

Basically he goes over a lot of info to say that Rakutens earnings forecast for Sony does not change. Stock price target remains the same and they will wait for Q2 of 2021 for further guidance.

Overall its a talk about possibilities, but they are taking the wait and see approach to whether Sony can pull this off.



Around the Network

I believe the article has mistaken the Sony ps5 for the Nintendo Switch. If any console has the slightest chance at breaking the 200M wall down it is the Nintendo Switch. I say this because households are now starting to buy multiple switches and nintendo is trying to promote households owning multiple switches. With mario kart live circuit I will probably grab a second switch to have just so I can play it with friends when they come over.



Marth said:
RolStoppable said:

Are you able to translate it?

There are translation services out there.

While the artcle talks about PS5 and 200M it is more in the line of "this is the potential customer base that PS5 could reach thanks to the existing Playstation userbase since PS2 days and the potential of growth thanks to esports related titles and activities.

But also they predict 12M first year (up from 10M originally) and 20M second year for PS5. (with PS4 around 9M this year and 5M next year)

They also talk about a whole lot of other stuff like Switch and Capcom performance. This is not a PS5 exclusive article.

Seeing their PS4 prediction makes it clear that first year for PS5 means by March 2021. I doubt that demand for the PS5 is so high that Sony can ship 12m. Or rather, a sure problem will be that much of the demand for the PS5 will be for its $399 SKU, for which Sony will deliberately limit production to keep their losses on hardware sales under control. Come January, there's not enough time for Sony to adjust production capacities of individual SKUs to get shipments out in time for the current fiscal year, so the PS5 will fall well short of that predicted 12m target.

20m for the fiscal year ending March 2022 is too lofty of a prediction too. We have a myriad of Digital Foundry analyses ahead of us where the most common result should be that third parties tend to make use of the XSX's advantage (resolution and framerate), but not so much the PS5's advantage (faster SSD). XSX establishing itself as the more powerful console is going to hurt PS5 sales. Then there's the price increase of software where I'd be surprised if the rest of the big game publishers didn't follow Sony and Take Two; that has a good chance of being favorable for Microsoft's Game Pass proposal on both XSX and XSS.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

After what Microsoft did, I'm not sure the PS5 will outsell the PS4, yet alone come anywhere close to 200m.