Honestly, if not for the pandemic; All of what you just said + SMT III & V + Paper Mario: TOK + New Pokémon Snap + Bravely Default II would have probably been their E3 Direct.
Pretty much, and it would've been one hell of a show, possibly Switch's strongest E3 yet. And don't forget No More Heroes 3, which was slated to arrive this year but was delayed due to COVID.
Ah yes, that's true. I also think that if not for COVID, Monster Hunter Rise would have been the big holiday title for the Switch. In hindsight, with no COVID/pandemic, I could have seen the 2nd half of 2020 looking like this
July - Paper Mario: The Origami King
Aug - Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity + SMT III (Japan only)
Sept. - Super Mario 3D All Stars
Oct. - Bravely Default 2 + Pikmin 3 Deluxe
Nov. - Mario 3D World Deluxe
Dec. - Monster Hunter Rise + NMH 3
The Switch probably wouldn't have sold nearly as much as it's selling now, but there's a very good chance that this year could still have been its peak year with Animal Crossing and Monster Hunter supercharging Japan, along with Mario's 35th anniversary serving as the cherry on top of the cake.
I also think that the E3 Direct would have given us another trailer for Breath of the Wild 2 with a '2021' release date. To serve as the "one final game to show you" surprise.