Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 27, 2020 (Jun 29 - Jul 05)

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Do you prefer I use a different word to discuss sales of a game when compared to hardware sales during the same period? Its obvious that for example, Animal Crossing has an existing customer base to sell to but most evergreen titles are selling at a % of new owners, in the case of some of them this % doesn't fluctuate. 

Whether its lifetime attach rates or looking at it from an annual basis to get insight into future sales trends - to me it's the data that's revealed and what it could tell us about the future sales. Overall whether we call it to attach rates or legs, it's the number of new hardware owners that purchase "old" software at mostly full price

Lifetime attach rate is also an interesting topic:

New Horizon Week 12: 14.69%
New Horizon Week 20: 32.95%
New Horizon Week 27: 35.86%

It will be interesting to look back at this over the course of the year, but once it reaches 40% it won't drop in 2020. Its drop will also be lower than Smash's drop in it's second year which was 24% or Splatoon 2's 33%. New Horizon despite launching in March 2020, will probably have around 40% attach rate for 2021. It will outperform Smash because it's bringing much bigger new demographics to the Switch.  Based on Splatoon 2, Smash, Pokemon Sword/Shield drops in their second year 1.5M is the least it can do next year. The real interesting part will be if it can maintain 20% in it's 3rd year on the market. 

We are witnessing History in Japanese Videogaming a record that no one thought any game would ever hit will be broken on a device that is twice to three times more expensive than the DS depending on it's the form factor. The success of the Switch and the upcoming domination of Nintendo on its home market is an unprecedented fact that we are beginning to witness. 

We haven't even gotten into the fact that this will basically make Animal Crossing one of the biggest IPs in the World, TV Rights/Movie rights alone would be evaluated in the trillions. 

Last edited by noshten - on 12 July 2020

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https://game.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/news/1265103.html

Ninjala got downloaded 3M times so far.



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So... eBaseball will likely open close on Switch and PS4 with Switch having slightly more sales on COMG, Tetsuya.
Like I mentioned previously this is one of the big games this quarter, I won't be surprised if it manages 300K on the Switch by the end of September but this remains to be seen.



noshten said:

Do you prefer I use a different word to discuss sales of a game when compared to hardware sales during the same period? Its obvious that for example, Animal Crossing has an existing customer base to sell to but most evergreen titles are selling at a % of new owners, in the case of some of them this % doesn't fluctuate. 

Whether its lifetime attach rates or looking at it from an annual basis to get insight into future sales trends - to me it's the data that's revealed and what it could tell us about the future sales. Overall whether we call it to attach rates or legs, it's the number of new hardware owners that purchase "old" software at mostly full price

Lifetime attach rate is also an interesting topic:

New Horizon Week 12: 14.69%
New Horizon Week 20: 32.95%
New Horizon Week 27: 35.86%

It will be interesting to look back at this over the course of the year, but once it reaches 40% it won't drop in 2020. Its drop will also be lower than Smash's drop in it's second year which was 24% or Splatoon 2's 33%. New Horizon despite launching in March 2020, will probably have around 40% attach rate for 2021. It will outperform Smash because it's bringing much bigger new demographics to the Switch.  Based on Splatoon 2, Smash, Pokemon Sword/Shield drops in their second year 1.5M is the least it can do next year. The real interesting part will be if it can maintain 20% in it's 3rd year on the market. 

We are witnessing History in Japanese Videogaming a record that no one thought any game would ever hit will be broken on a device that is twice to three times more expensive than the DS depending on it's the form factor. The success of the Switch and the upcoming domination of Nintendo on its home market is an unprecedented fact that we are beginning to witness. 

We haven't even gotten into the fact that this will basically make Animal Crossing one of the biggest IPs in the World, TV Rights/Movie rights alone would be evaluated in the trillions. 

Here is a question I have.  What is the top selling game in Japan by revenue?  It might actually be AC: NH at this point (once you include digital).  It's selling for about 6000 yen.  I'm pretty sure every other game in the top ten had a significantly lower price.  Also inflation isn't much of a factor in Japan since it's also had plenty of years of deflation.




Here is a question I have.  What is the top selling game in Japan by revenue?  It might actually be AC: NH at this point (once you include digital).  It's selling for about 6000 yen.  I'm pretty sure every other game in the top ten had a significantly lower price.  Also inflation isn't much of a factor in Japan since it's also had plenty of years of deflation.

Its a good question, considering there is also digital revenue where retailers don't get a cut, also there is potentially new NSO Subscribers.

It's very likely already more profitable than Pokemon Red, Blue, Green and Yellow. Adjusted for inflation Pokemon Red, Blue and Green are actually one of the most expensive games ever launched on a handheld and apparently in the top 20 of the most expensive games ever made. Development actually took 6 years, Yellow was launched in 1998 and the games had legs until Gold / Silver released in 2000

1996 Pokémon Red / Green / Blue - 1.663.861

1997 Pokémon Red / Green / Blue - 3.995.992

1998 Pokémon Red / Green / Blue - 1.520.428

1999 Pokémon Red / Green / Blue - 726.524

Pokémon Red / Green / Blue TOTAL: 7.906.805

1998 Pokemon Yellow - 1.482.638

1998 Pokemon Yellow - 272.142

Yellow TOTAL: 1.754.780

With little doubt that it will sell over 9.66M in the first four years on the market, New Horizon is already probably the most profitable game for Nintendo in Japan of all time. The main difference is that Pokemon also exploded in terms of merchandise, TV syndication, movies, card games, etc.

So although New Horizon is the most profitable game it's still not a cultural phenomenon outside of Japan. There is also a little mobile game that will probably stick around but it's not bringing the type of money selling TV or movie rights might bring to Nintendo. 

The main thing that should not be understated with New Horizon is the expansions in terms of demographics buying the Switch.  A lot of the new owners would not have bought the Switch without it - every title they purchase on the Switch is an additional amount Nintendo wasn't making before New Horizon launched. 



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https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=242877



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Me trying to write reviews:
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