Forums - Nintendo Discussion - NSW is here to Stay!! Itís Life Will Be Long and No Successor Will Come Before 2025!

When will NSW2 come out?

2022 Holiday 11 10.28%
 
2023 Spring 17 15.89%
 
2023 Holiday 21 19.63%
 
2024 Spring 35 32.71%
 
2024 Holiday 15 14.02%
 
2025 Spring 7 6.54%
 
2025 Holiday 0 0.00%
 
2026+ 1 0.93%
 
Total:107
mZuzek said:
Amnesia said:
I am still a believer for a collapse of the sales after Christmas 2020 (the next in 6 months).
Then in 2021 a new console is presented, and it comes out in 2022.
It is not the announcement which makes collapse the sales in my scenario, but the Switch will simply run out of interest.

Are you also still a believer for Earth being flat?

Oh I have made a screenshoot and saved this...

I will show you this again in a year or two.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

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Amnesia said:
mZuzek said:

Are you also still a believer for Earth being flat?

Oh I have made a screenshoot and saved this...

I will show you this again in a year or two.

Don't worry, I'll have forgotten about it by tomorrow.



mZuzek said:
Amnesia said:

Oh I have made a screenshoot and saved this...

I will show you this again in a year or two.

Don't worry, I'll have forgotten about it by tomorrow.

Not me.

We live in a dumb world because people have no memory, they can be continuously fooled.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

Amnesia said:
mZuzek said:

Are you also still a believer for Earth being flat?

Oh I have made a screenshoot and saved this...

I will show you this again in a year or two.

Usually it's the people who are right that show the people who were wrong how wrong they were, but your approach is a nice change of pace.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Otter said:
archbrix said:

You should have added 2021 to the poll just to see how far the madness would go.

The 3DS was succeeded in 6 years. People suggesting that Switch's successor will arrive in 2022 means that it would be succeeded in 5 years. Considering that Switch will be close to 3DS' lifetime sales on its fourth birthday, it's safe to say that Switch is performing quite a bit better than the 3DS.

It is inconceivable that Switch 2 is arriving anytime before 2024.

The 3DS was dropped like a rock, it was completely replaced. 

Obviously anyone saying 2022 Switch 2 has very different ideas about how Switch 2 will function within the market. As we can see looking at the launch of Series X, all of its first party games will also be playable on Xbox One. No one is expecting the Switch to be replaced in 2022. 

First off, no, 3DS wasn't dropped like a rock, but for the sake of argument... so what?  The point is that it was Nintendo's money maker, didn't live up to their expectations and it still got six years of life and dev support before their next console.  Switch's life before its successor won't be shorter than the 3DS.

Second, if you think that "No one is expecting the Switch to be replaced in 2022" then you haven't been paying attention.  There are plenty of people who erroneously believe that Nintendo will release a new, more powerful Switch to combat the arrival of the new consoles.  Will there be a redesign of the current Switch?  Inevitably.  But will there be an all new console that supports an all new library?  Not any time soon.  And yes, when Switch 2 does arrive it will be backwards compatible just like Series X/One, obviously.



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2024. As long as games not developed on NS first will be developed for PS4 and XBOne too, there will be little or no difficulty at all porting them to NS too, but when most games not made for NS first will be developed for consoles with 12GB to 16GB RAM on entry level models, and moreover developed for recent SSD's, porting them to a 4GB RAM machine with slower and very much smaller internal storage (and even slower card based expansion), will become very hard or impossible, so while 1st and 3rd party exclusives and multiplats developed on NS first could be fine forever, to keep good relationships with as many 3rd parties as possible, Ninty will need to release a new machine when they need it. Scalable engines, and devs increasing max GPU usage faster than they increase CPU usage, mean that Ninty will still be able to keep power lower, competing, home-only consoles, and graphics RAM or the part of unified RAM used for graphics won't need to be as big as in competitors, but main RAMused by the CPU will need to be almost as big as in competitors (some savings will be possible with a more frugal OS and having to cache smaller textures, but a total 66% saving, as it will be keeping a 4GB machine compared to 12GB minimum competitors, will be impossible), and internal storage too will need to be much larger and faster, although smaller textures will allow some savings in size and speed.
Anyhow, considering competitors use Zen 2 CPU cores, NS will be able to get the necessary power from latest or almost latest 2024 tech ARM or Zen CPU cores while keeping power consumption within hybrid console limits (battery tech improvements will help increasing these limits, making things even easier).
So we can expect NS2 to be very powerful without killing battery autonomy and costing at launch no more than NS.
This anyhow doesn't mean sudden death for NS in 2024, as long as devs want it will still receive new games (and while the most HW demanding games won't be portable, the huge user base NS will have then will make desirable for 3rd parties to port any game that can be ported), and as long as Ninty wants it will be produced, just like DS and 3DS before, and until NS2 price will drop enough, ther will still be a market for NS1 too. NS lifecycle could easily reach and surpass 10 years, even with NS2 coming in its 7th year.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Why a new console in 2022 would necessarily mean a brutal STOP for the Switch ? They can keep selling the Switch cheap at a decent pace until 2030 while there is a new gen system as main product.
They can unlock some more GPU from the current Switch, but this will never be enough to really push farther the technical limit of acceptable ports the Switch can handle. Even from 2017 to 2020, the Switch received nothing serious from Capcom and Square. I don't think that repeating the Nintendo's IP again and again on a limited hardware will be enough to keep the competition after 2022. Decreasing the price to 250$ (or offering Mario Kart 8 with the console), will offer a good boost, but for how long...



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

archbrix said:
Otter said:

The 3DS was dropped like a rock, it was completely replaced. 

Obviously anyone saying 2022 Switch 2 has very different ideas about how Switch 2 will function within the market. As we can see looking at the launch of Series X, all of its first party games will also be playable on Xbox One. No one is expecting the Switch to be replaced in 2022. 

First off, no, 3DS wasn't dropped like a rock, but for the sake of argument... so what?  The point is that it was Nintendo's money maker, didn't live up to their expectations and it still got six years of life and dev support before their next console.  Switch's life before its successor won't be shorter than the 3DS.

Second, if you think that "No one is expecting the Switch to be replaced in 2022" then you haven't been paying attention. There are plenty of people who erroneously believe that Nintendo will release a new, more powerful Switch to combat the arrival of the new consoles.  Will there be a redesign of the current Switch?  Inevitably.  But will there be an all new console that supports an all new library?  Not any time soon.  And yes, when Switch 2 does arrive it will be backwards compatible just like Series X/One, obviously.



lol, I am one of those people. What I'm saying is that people's concepts of console succession and commercial success are very rigid. Times are changing. 

If you see the Switch as the 3DS' successor, that was a hard reset where Switch immediately received flagship Nintendo games that were not available on the 3DS. A lot of them. When people talk about a Switch 2 in 2022, many of us are not talking about a platform which arrives and forces the OG Switch out of the market right away with a whole bunch of exclusive Nintendo experiences.

Also Arbirary comparison don't make the best sense here, the 3DS may never reach the Gameboy Advance 81m figure but the GBA was replaced a lot quicker (4years). 

Remember the new3DS/DSi? These received exclusive software, and were weird late gen updates. Instead of doing a weird refresh or simply having a Switch Pro, I think Nintendo will just have a new Switch which will eventually transition into its own platform. Nintendo has found their mojo now and I think will more aggressively keep people in their echosystem and expand their online services with iterative hardware & soft generational leaps. No more starting from zero every 6 years.

This is an extremely safe business direction, the main counter argument is that it hasn't been done before in the game space but we can see MS moving towards this. The other thing is people are more obsessed by unit sales of individual platforms then they are about the actual stability and share value of Nintendo the company.

I think the Switch 2's release will not be based on the current Switch's sales. The Switch will inevitably be in decline in 2022, it's just a matter of when Nintendo feel the technology is right to offer a generational leap because I don't think Switch 2 will have any USP compared to Switch 1. And just as the Tegra X1 was released 2 years prior to the actual Switch, a Switch 2 in 2022 will not actually be any weaker than if the platform was released in 2024. A hard generational transition forces you to launch at a more accessible price since your entire business is leaning towards the new platform. A soft transition gives room for the Switch 2 to start at a premium price and live next to the more mass market $199-249 Switch for casuals, budget house holds and late adopters.



Alby_da_Wolf said:

2024. As long as games not developed on NS first will be developed for PS4 and XBOne too, there will be little or no difficulty at all porting them to NS too

There is already a lot of difficulty porting to Switch from PS4/Xbox One, so much so that most AAA games skip the platform entirely, those that don't often come late and require entire seperate teams. With the event of PS5/SX, games will also become less optimised for PS4/Xbox One 



Otter said:
archbrix said:

First off, no, 3DS wasn't dropped like a rock, but for the sake of argument... so what?  The point is that it was Nintendo's money maker, didn't live up to their expectations and it still got six years of life and dev support before their next console.  Switch's life before its successor won't be shorter than the 3DS.

Second, if you think that "No one is expecting the Switch to be replaced in 2022" then you haven't been paying attention. There are plenty of people who erroneously believe that Nintendo will release a new, more powerful Switch to combat the arrival of the new consoles.  Will there be a redesign of the current Switch?  Inevitably.  But will there be an all new console that supports an all new library?  Not any time soon.  And yes, when Switch 2 does arrive it will be backwards compatible just like Series X/One, obviously.



lol, I am one of those people. What I'm saying is that people's concepts of console succession and commercial success are very rigid. Times are changing. 

If you see the Switch as the 3DS' successor, that was a hard reset where Switch immediately received flagship Nintendo games that were not available on the 3DS. A lot of them. When people talk about a Switch 2 in 2022, many of us are not talking about a platform which arrives and forces the OG Switch out of the market right away with a whole bunch of exclusive Nintendo experiences.

Also Arbirary comparison don't make the best sense here, the 3DS may never reach the Gameboy Advance 81m figure but the GBA was replaced a lot quicker (4years). 

Remember the new3DS/DSi? These received exclusive software, and were weird late gen updates. Instead of doing a weird refresh or simply having a Switch Pro, I think Nintendo will just have a new Switch which will eventually transition into its own platform. Nintendo has found their mojo now and I think will more aggressively keep people in their echosystem and expand their online services with iterative hardware & soft generational leaps. No more starting from zero every 6 years.

This is an extremely safe business direction, the main counter argument is that it hasn't been done before in the game space but we can see MS moving towards this. The other thing is people are more obsessed by unit sales of individual platforms then they are about the actual stability and share value of Nintendo the company.

I think the Switch 2's release will not be based on the current Switch's sales. The Switch will inevitably be in decline in 2022, it's just a matter of when Nintendo feel the technology is right to offer a generational leap because I don't think Switch 2 will have any USP compared to Switch 1. And just as the Tegra X1 was released 2 years prior to the actual Switch, a Switch 2 in 2022 will not actually be any weaker than if the platform was released in 2024. A hard generational transition forces you to launch at a more accessible price since your entire business is leaning towards the new platform. A soft transition gives room for the Switch 2 to start at a premium price and live next to the more mass market $199-249 Switch for casuals, budget house holds and late adopters.

Something akin to the New 3DS or DSi is not what I'm referring to - that's entirely possible when they announce their redesign of the current Switch.  That is not Switch 2, which will be an entirely new system with the start of a new library for the 10th gen.  This splits the user base and the developers' priorities as well.  New 3DS had only a handful of exclusives, with Xenoblade and Fire Emblem Warriors being most notable, and the DSi had even less.  Not the same thing at all.  The idea that Nintendo would release a more powerful system so soon just to cater to 3rd parties is a recipe for disaster on so many levels.

Gameboy Advance was facing impending competition from Sony with PSP.  Nintendo was set with a touch screen gaming device years before iPhone or iPod Touch.  Launching the DS when they did was indisputably the right thing to do; I remember at E3 before launch, Iwata himself said that he was most proud of the DS out of all of Nintendo's accomplishments.  That was the power of the DS and Nintendo knew this.  The Switch faces zero direct competition on the horizon and its sales in its fourth year will far exceed what the GBA was doing aligned.

But you have made yourself clear to me now:  The majority of your argument hinges on the fallacy that Switch's sales will be in a dangerous decline come 2022.  If a redesign is indeed released in 2021, Switch's sales will be over 20m again, and 2022 will see shipments sales well above 15m; far more than the ~7m that the 3DS garnered in its 6th year.

Last edited by archbrix - 6 days ago