On the contrary, I think mid-gen releases are perfect for Nintendo with the hardware they're pushing. A 2024 or later launch gives enough time for the mobile technology to catch up, so that the next Switch will once again be able to run modern AAA games to a decent degree. Maybe even better with what they've learned already.

Nintendo not being reliant on AAA games means having them ported a year or two later isn't a big deal. They'll still find a nice market just like they are right now on Switch. But it's important Nintendo still try to support that market too.

Switch 2 will arrive by holiday 2022 and maybe even holiday next year.

It will not replace Switch 1.

It will replace the concept of a Switch Pro, it will have it's own exclusives from third parties but Nintendo will enforce cross gen internally for 2 years for most titles.

They will make more money and secure a safer future then they ever could by just relying on the Switch alone until 2025 lmao. We really think after all these hardware inconsistencies Nintendo wants another hard reset, and at a point where they will be at their least relevant? 

Imagine Nintendo waiting until their ONLY hardware falls to 10m sales? You really think after these heights they are going to wait until they are surviving off crums & dying software sales

$399 (2TFlop/250GB flash memory/720p-1080p focus/DLSS upscaling)

Who waits to replace their console 5 years after peak? I feel like quarantine has warped your perception of time.

Anyway next system will be iterative & non cannabolising, whereas "Switch" 3 will involve new concepts and arrive end of the decade.

Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk ^_^

It's not uncommon for people to want things to look forward to. For Switch to maintain these kind of sales, they need to maintain its relevancy - with upcoming games.  I don't buy the fact that Covid had completely messed with Nintendo's plans, as said by others, other companies haven't seemed to be negatively impacted that much... The next gen is still coming this year. Sony just had a massive presentation. After Paper Mario, Nintendo should really start making more announcements/have an actual Direct again.

Smash just had a character reveal and it shows how COVID19 is affecting them. Sony/MS releasing their consoles on track and showing off a lot of games doesn’t mean they weren’t impacted. Games that will follow afterwards are the ones more being delayed.

A good example of what I’m saying is television , shows and movies are still being released now but does that mean they aren’t effected? Of course not. Movies were already in production and being made. You’ll see a notable decline in releases starting probably end of 2020 or beginning of 2021.

most of the games shown were probably already done or close to completion. That said yes we all want Nintendo to show us what’s in store for the rest of the year. I don’t disagree with that. I’m just saying they are the most infamous ones to show a big game and suddenly release it shorty after. RFA did it in less than a month and paper Mario in 2 months 

I would say spring or holiday 2023 for a Switch successor. As others have pointed out, Switch 2 will not hard-reset what have been done with the current model, it need to be backward compatible and share the games library. When Switch 2 is released, the current model will still be supported for several years to come, as for the 3DS.

Speaking of the no-new-games situation... Actually the Switch is my favorite Nintendo console since the SNES, but last game I played on it was Link's Awakening and some good indie games in January/February.. I'm not a fan of Pokemon or Animal Crossing, and not much interested in the recently released third-party ports/remasters.

I'm still waiting for announcements by Nintendo, at least to just know if there will be something for me to play by the end of the year.. or not.

I take it you missed FFVIIR, TLOU2, GOT and Cyber Punk 2077 all being delayed with some games more than once.

This looks probable I think. But I think a Spring 2024 Switch 2 launch is most likely and Switch sales die off quickly after that, so that FY9 will drop off I think to like 3mil instead of 7.5mil. But through FY8 I feel like you're pretty much dead on, I might adjust FY5 - FY8 down by a total of like 1 or 2 million but that's about it.

A 2022 launch for successor is just a completely absurd idea at this point. 2023 is a bit early as well. At absolute earliest Nintendo might release it holiday 2023. But Spring 2024 feels just right. Holiday 2023 might be a Pokemon game as the last major first party title for Switch, and lots of discounts to close out the Switch with a great final holiday, as people look forward to the Switch 2 a few months later. Any longer than that feels like it would probably be dragging on. By 2024 it'd probably be a very weak year for Switch if they tried to keep it going all the way until the holidays before a successor launches.

I'd say like 60% chance of spring 2024 launch, 35% holiday 2023, 4% holiday 2024, 1% spring 2023.

If they capitalize on their momentum in the first half of the year, Switch's 2020 sales total could be one of the highest for any game system ever.

Unfortunately, they are currently showing no sign at all of doing so. 

So you are the one person who voted 2026+

With a correct handling I definitely see them reaching a 8-9 year lifespan. It all depends on how they move regarding revisions and upgrades. In certain point they should promote hardcore Switch users to upgrade but they should keep supporting older Switch versions with First Party games, so less "hardcore" users may have the option of keep playing Nintendo games.