Yeah, I'm thinking Late 2024 as well. Used to think Late 2025, but things would be pretty dry from late 2024 through most of 2025 if they waited that long, in my opinion. Of course releasing as late as possible would make the Switch 2's earlier years as good as possible, but I feel it wouldn't be in their best interest. (Anything earlier than 2024 is too early though, I think.)

I think a Late 2024 release would give them just enough stuff to release on Switch prior to the successor's launch and still have big games to release for their successor.

Ex:

2022- Pokemon Legends, Kirby, Splatoon 2, Bayonetta 3, Mario + Rabbids, Zelda (all confirmed) & XC3, DK by Odyssey team, Prime remake, Fire Emblem, Mario Sports title (Baseball, please!) (all speculation)

2023- Pokemon Gen 9 (early 2023), Star Fox, Kirby Spin-off, Pikmin 4, FE: Warriors 2, Prime 4, F-Zero, Mystery Dungeon Explorers DX, Next Level Games' next game (hoping Mario Strikers), WW/TP HD, XCX Deluxe, Luigi's Mansion 1/2 HD (all speculation)

2024- TTYD HD, Detective Pikachu 2, Fire Emblem Remake, Yoshi's Woolly World, Let's Go Johto, OOS/OOA HD, DKCR HD, Golden Sun HD and Mario Sports compilation (all speculation)

Kind of wishlist-y near the end, but this does seem like a good slate of games for the second half of Switch's life. Very heavy on HD remakes in 2024, but obviously big stuff would be saved for Switch 2 which could launch with a 2D Mario and Mario Kart in Holiday 2024 and then get games like Animal Crossing in 2025 which would be BIG.

I'm calling it here, spring 2024. Launching with Mario Kart 9 or new 3D Mario if they aren't out by then.

@trunkswd What games do you think they'll have ready for 2024? Mario Kart & 2D Mario seem like good possibilities.

Switch successor is absolutely coming before 2025. Can't imagine using the Switch still in 4 years.

Holiday 2023 is my guess, with full BC to the Switch. I think Nintendo goes straight with Switch 2. I'm glad the Switch has been as successful as it has been, given technology (since the Switch launch) has increased significantly. I expect the Switch 2 will be a massive jump in fidelity.

March or holiday 2024.
I think there could be maybe one or two crossgen games, not much more.
The Switch 2 should be fully backwards compatible.

2022 should have 20m, 2023 should have 12m. March 2024 sounds most likely atm.

If we see a more powerful Switch (like PS4 Pro or Xbox One X) in 2022 or 2023, the successor should be delayed to 2025/26. This is not likely if leaks and rumours are true and developers are struggling to guarantee backward compatibility on Nintendo's next 4K console, because the hardware of the 4K dev kits is very different compared to Switch. So don't expect a Switch 2. Nintendo already said that they always try something new with every console.

@trunkswd Mario Kart should definitely be a shoe in for the next systems launch. If rumors are true that the Odyssey team us releasing a DK game this year, I don't think they will have a 3D Mario game ready in 2 years. The 2D Mario team should have something by then though. It's true that 2D Mario has gotten stake lately but maybe they'll make something unique. Even then, a regular 2D Mario would probably still sell well. Even NSMBU DX has done well.

I would be worried having the system launch with a 2D Mario though because we had Wii launching with Zelda and Wii U launching with 2D Mario, and then we'd just have Switch with Zelda and Switch 2 with 2D Mario.

When this was initially posted I voted for Spring 2023 with Holiday 2023 nearly as likely. Now I'm betting more on Holiday 2023 or Spring 2024. There are still so many chip shortages that I think releasing Switch 2 in March 2023 will lead to mass shortages and scalping. Or at least more than if it releases later.
Switch has a pretty significant 2022 in the works and I'm sure there are some key titles that can release in 2023 as well.

@trunkswd True that it would never fail like Wii U, thanks to the fact that they only have 1 system. I was just pointing out a similarity.