2015 Switch tech is not the most powerful at this moment, as there are other devices already over Switch. Some smartphones for example, althought those are used for multitasking purposes and are way more expensive.

DS seems untouchable to me, while 3DS lifetime sales are going to be almost surpassed after only 4 years of Switch sales. I doubt Nintendo prefers the 3DS sales pace over the Switch, which have a bigger and more diverse library than the 3DS at the same time thanks to a better western support.

I agree also that the mentioned games are at least 4 years away from release, and that's exactly why having a Switch succesor sooner than later could help to develop and release the Switch version at the same time than the other versions, or at least not so far from the og launch.

- A smart phone is not a dedicated gaming device, what other portable is active now in the market so yes NS is the most powerful in that market.

- You made a moot point here you're arguing about how long such support can keep a platform going well 3DS and DS had the exact same length in being active on the market that's the point, sales rate is a different factor altogether.

- No if anything those games being 4 years away is why the shouldn't be a release in 2022 if anything the release needs to be when these games come out so the likes of Virtuous and so on can have an even easier time porting games release at the time and in future because 4 years means Nvidia have at least another 2 years of advancements they can push through for the platform meaning less compromises have to be done.

While I do feel that we're going to see new hardware in 2021 and a platform evolution generation, rather than a scrapping of the Switch to start over from scratch on something else. Nintendo COULD hold off for years to come - as I'll explain in the next two paragraphs - and I'll explain how Gen 1 and Gen 2 can co-exist in the third paragraph.

The industry has evolved a great deal since the 1990s. The Wii and DS created an entirely new sub-market for the video game industry - and mobile + Steam have really run away with it making that pool MUCH larger than it was even in the Wii/DS era. That is, the AAA industry, and big studio game development in general has lost its dominance. These so-called "shovelware" games are what most people want to play... and to be frank, many of them are much more fun and satisfying to play than big AAA titles that are clones of things done dozens, if not hundreds of times before. All the triple A industry does is takes old ideas and makes them shinier with cutting edge technology - but the new industry which came to prominence does the opposite: it creates cutting edge experiences on technology with output resembling very old devices. Pokemon came out on Gameboy many years after it launched; and when the Gameboy launched, it already resembled very old technology (colour LCD screens were already around a decade old by the time the Gameboy came out).

That said, the AAA industry is shrinking, while the small studio industry is growing. The Switch doesn't need it to thrive and therefore doesn't need to go anywhere for quite a long while yet. The Switch-level hardware will be viable for at least another decade because most studios won't be making games that require anything greater.

Even if Nintendo Switch 2 comes out in 2021, mostly every game on it will be doable on the Switch 1, and Switch 1 wouldn't need to die any time soon - as it could continue its existence as a lower-end model - kind of like the iPad Mini 2 did for years after its release. I think next gen they maintain Switch Lite (1st gen) while phasing out the gen 1 Switch hybrid, and maybe have a gen 2 economy model Switch TV form factor. That way, it would make it a lot cheaper to port higher end games to a Nintendo platform - although, I still expect that the vast majority of Switch 2 games would be Switch 1 games as well, and I'd guess Nintendo would do both consoles if possible (since it would be possible and feasible if they support both gens). I'm a big fan of Nintendo expanding the form factors and perhaps evolving generations to be more like Smart devices, even though I'd be sticking to the highest end hybrid model, exclusively.

- NS and Nvidia Shield are the only dedicated gaming devices in the portable market afaik, and both share comparable tech. That does not change the fact that there's already better mobile tech, even if that tech is still not implemented in the dedicated videogame market. Nvidia is already working on some other new tech and architecture like amprere or the DLSS 2.0.

- By holiday 2002 or Spring 2023 the Switch woul have the same active life than both DS and 3DS (6 years).

- Releasing the succesor by the time those games come, it would led to very late ports, or rushed ones. My assumptions comes from Nintendo wanting to get those games as near as possible from the original release, or even at the same time.

- NASA super computers are better tech then what goes into most gaming PCs does that mean they're relevant when talking about dedicated gaming builds no so fact is if it's not in the dedicated gaming space as the context brought up it's not relevant.

- 3DS was active up to the end of 2019 (8 years) where the last significant game released for it was Persona Q2 in June this was an increase from DS' 7 years as it had Pokemon B/W2 in in 2012.

- Yeah and? You're acting as if the ports wouldn't be late anyway they'd even take longer to do under what you're suggesting, releasing when those games come out makes the task of porting them easier due to being able to use better tech and advancements meaning less compromises in order to get ports to work this is far better then rushing out a platform to try and catch such titles while undermining the success of a very successful platform. The latter is just better for the long term, for example that extra time could be the difference between putting out a device that could be PS4 level or in the middle of it and pro level performance.

- Please avoid hyperbole. Smartphone tech comparison is not at the same level as the NASA.

- Same can apply to the Switch. It could still be active in 2030 getting some games, but that does not neglect a succesor in 2022 or spring 2023. Wii even got Just Dance this past year and we already had Wii U and Switch.

- Developing the Switch succesor version alongside the other ones could let to more inhouse development and better quality from third parties. It can be easier for developers to add another version than look for an external studio to port an already released game. They can also have a refresh, such as the New 3DS, to address tech improvements.

It actually needs to be stronger if they want to keep getting at least the same third party support from the western studios. At this point, games like the succesor for Doom Eternal, Wicher III  and Skyrim are most likely not going to appear on Switch, the downgrade may be too much. And yes, even if there are very few AAA titles, those still are good for the library. Getting Skyrim and Doom, and later on games like Witcher III, was positive marketing.

Let's also remember that Switch is 2015 tech, and by 2022, it is going to be 7 years old with better and not expensive tech in the market that would only bring benefits to the console maker and developers, making it easier to port as much titles as posible and bring another big and diverse library that would ensure another hit.

Indies, exclusives and Japanese support cannot carry on for a long time if the sales curve starts to go down. If they wait for a long time to release the succesor, Nintendo may end with another Wii situation where the console was basically dead without any hype for the successor.

- No it highlights the irrelevancy of that point perfectly because we're talking about dedicated gaming platforms and you're bringing up non gaming devices.

- You brought up active life in regards to the Switch to the 3DS and DS I just pointed out how with each it increased and changes, GB was out for 10 years before a pro model (GBC) came out and 13 until its eventual successor in the GBA and was active a further 2 years. Standard factors that you're trying to go by don't apply to the case of the Switch the parallel markets gives it far more staying power than many of its successors.

- You mean like how current gen versions were developed alongside the PS4/X1 versions? Guess how that has worked out, you're not being at all realistic here because if you think rushing out a platform is a way to to catch ports and change the situation you're fooling yourself as many of the in house developers in general have a little clue in how to approach the extra version because all they know is working with usual platforms. What's ironic is that the scenario I'm pointing out to you in releasing a later platform with better tech is better for in house developers as the less compromises make the porting and optimization easier.

The reason the extra version more so than anything is always delayed is because western third parties never wanted to factor the added platform to begin with consumers on Nintendo platforms don't support the business models they prefer so the added version is more so to squeeze out a bit more profit out of a title most of the money now days is made through mtx and season passes upfront sales are now only really covering the development costs which is the core reason behind the whole GAAS approach. This is why an outside studio is used to do the porting as at that point the in house teams are needed for the next project and its cheaper to just have people who know what they're doing take on the job.

What this ultimately means is if rushing out a platform is not going to facilitate a change then the's no point they may as well release a non rushed platform later on and get better quality port and hardware that makes them easier to get while letting the NS have a strong prolonged life.

Switch 2 will simply get those AAA games later, just as Switch 1 got games like Witcher 3 and Doom 2016 later.

2022 is too early by your own metrics too, because if Switch 2 comes out then it'll be based on a 2020/2021 mobile SoC and won't be able to get PS5/XSX ports anyway.