I hope Ninty releases a home only switch as well and it provides a bit better experience than the current docked version for games. And they set it up where you can seamlessly switch from your home only version to the lite and this continues your game on the go as save data is backed up via cloud. That way the switch marketing would still make sense and Ninty did say the brand is more than the one base console.

And after the release a pro version in 2022 for all 3 iterations. That will extend the life of the switch to 2025 spring where they release the switch 2 with all 3 versions. Just continue switch, switch lite, switch home but with a 2 in front of them and with the pro models a pro in front of them. No need to make it fancy. No unique names or gimmicks. Just keep it simple. It makes sense and anyone can understand it. Nothing like the Wii U where people thought the U was for a version of the Wii with a gamepad tablet.

GTA has proven that remasters can sell as much if not more than the original. MK8D helped confirm it.

I agree with a lot of what you say re sequels v originals as system sellers but Nintendo makes and breaks rules as often as they follow established rules so it's near impossible to predict what they can/will do given how capable they are when they're in the zone.

I think N can make MK9 different enough to MK8 (Nintendo/Smash Kart) to maximise sales (additive instead of competitive). I wouldn't release MK9 until MK8 has been bundled/preloaded for a year or two.

Every 20m+ selling game could have done 10m+ on weaker hardware with compromises (at least) a gen earlier (Eg Minecraft could and should have been done on N64).

Edit-you should save the lols for when you're 100%+ confident you're right. 

My guess is 2022 for the succesor.
Full retrocompatibility.
Some 2022 and 2023 Nintendo titles to be released for both consoles.
From 2024 onwards everything is for 2witch.

I think 2022 would be too soon; that would give Switch a shorter time before succession than the 3DS despite it selling way better.

This phased transition some of you are plugging doesn't seem likely either, as the whole point of the Switch is to unify their development efforts into a single system.

I think 2022 is more unlikely than 2026 at this point

My guess comes from these assumptions:

1. Switch sales. At this moment, I believe having a big and diverse library, not only consisting in their own first party titles, is the major factor for the current success. They are going to pursue this objective in the following years and systems, thus it is very important to keep the tech gap between the other devices and their own one in a manageable position to allow external studios to keep porting their games. Even EA has announced more titles and other companies are willing to port their games if the tech is there.

2. Nvidia's partnership. They are going to try to push mobile tech thru Nintendo's devices. Having a much more modern device in the market showing amazing capabilities for an hybrid system is and going to continue giving them good image in the tech industry.

It doesn't need to be any stronger to keep getting third party games; it already gets very few current AAA games so that won't change much, while indies, exclusives, and Japanese support will continue to carry it.

It actually needs to be stronger if they want to keep getting at least the same third party support from the western studios. At this point, games like the succesor for Doom Eternal, Wicher III  and Skyrim are most likely not going to appear on Switch, the downgrade may be too much. And yes, even if there are very few AAA titles, those still are good for the library. Getting Skyrim and Doom, and later on games like Witcher III, was positive marketing.

Let's also remember that Switch is 2015 tech, and by 2022, it is going to be 7 years old with better and not expensive tech in the market that would only bring benefits to the console maker and developers, making it easier to port as much titles as posible and bring another big and diverse library that would ensure another hit.

Indies, exclusives and Japanese support cannot carry on for a long time if the sales curve starts to go down. If they wait for a long time to release the succesor, Nintendo may end with another Wii situation where the console was basically dead without any hype for the successor.

You're looking at the Switch as if it's a traditional bit of hardware it isn't leading to several factors that are in play for one due to being a hybrid it has a monopoly on the portable market where the 2015 tech is still the most powerful. Indies, exclusives and Japanese support in this side of the market has shown to be more than enough to go on after all 3DS lasted 9 years even with a poor start, DS also lasted 9 years as well with both platforms having at least 7 years before a successor arrived.

The successors of the games you mention likely aren't going to arrive for another 3 to 4 years and that's assuming they have quick development especially going by how long developers took to get to grips with the PS4/X1 that amount of time makes it even more questionable to release in 2022 it would be better to release a platform closer to the time of those games to be able to utilize even better tech that becomes viable.

2015 Switch tech is not the most powerful at this moment, as there are other devices already over Switch. Some smartphones for example, althought those are used for multitasking purposes and are way more expensive.

DS seems untouchable to me, while 3DS lifetime sales are going to be almost surpassed after only 4 years of Switch sales. I doubt Nintendo prefers the 3DS sales pace over the Switch, which have a bigger and more diverse library than the 3DS at the same time thanks to a better western support.

I agree also that the mentioned games are at least 4 years away from release, and that's exactly why having a Switch succesor sooner than later could help to develop and release the Switch version at the same time than the other versions, or at least not so far from the og launch.