Forums - Nintendo Discussion - NSW is here to Stay!! Itís Life Will Be Long and No Successor Will Come Before 2025!

When will NSW2 come out?

2022 Holiday 11 10.28%
 
2023 Spring 17 15.89%
 
2023 Holiday 21 19.63%
 
2024 Spring 35 32.71%
 
2024 Holiday 15 14.02%
 
2025 Spring 7 6.54%
 
2025 Holiday 0 0.00%
 
2026+ 1 0.93%
 
Total:107

Wii shipments for the fiscal years ending March...

2009: 25.94m
2010: 20.54m (-21%)
2011: 15.08m (-26%)
2012: 9.84m (-35%)
2013: 3.99m (-60%)

Like I said in my previous post, 2009 closed out with high stock levels; 5.43m were shipped in January to March 2009, followed by only 2.23m in April to June 2009. If you account for stock levels and take away 1m from 2009 and add it to 2010 which is more representative of sell-through, then you are only looking at a decline of ~3m from one fiscal year to the next which is under 15%. Consequently, that would make the decline for 2011 bigger, but 2011 was already notably weaker in releases than previous years.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/wii.html

2007: Wii Sports, Wii Play
2008: Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Japan, America), Wii Fit (Japan)
2009: Wii Fit (America, Europe), Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Europe), Mario Kart Wii
2010: Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, New Super Mario Bros. Wii
2011: Wii Party
2012: N/A
2013: N/A

The biggest fiscal years strongly correlate with the release timings of the biggest Nintendo games. SSBB and Wii Fit spilled over into 2009, because it wasn't until March 2008 that SSBB got released in America while Wii Fit got a spring 2008 release in both America and Europe. 2010's big releases (WSR, WFP and NSMBW combined for over 80m lifetime); 2011's releases couldn't even combine for 30m (Wii Party, Super Mario Galaxy 2 and all the rest). 2012's release schedule was underwhelming; I already posted what Nintendo did during calendar year 2011. It's no secret that the Wii lived by Nintendo's first party lineup, so it shouldn't be hard to believe that it died by the lack of it.

Moving on to your faulty hardware logic...

Someone who buys a revision isn't necessarily out of the ecosystem only three years later. All it takes to retain is a next gen console that is worth buying and if Nintendo pulled that off, they would prolong the lifecycle of Switch and get all the benefits from next gen. Your logic is that a good five years of Switch are enough and that should be used to fuel into (presumably) five good years for Switch 2, but it would obviously be better for Nintendo's business if they get a good seven years out of Switch that fuel into another long lifecycle for Switch 2. There's no good reason to believe that they can't pull that off. It would actually be easier to go that route, because their best first party developers can finish their Switch games in late 2020 and throughout 2021 and then prepare to launch next gen games in late 2024 and throughout 2025 to get Switch 2 strong out of the gates. But judging from your post, you are actually talking about second string teams being supposed to prepare the launch year titles for Switch 2?

You also mentioned a cross-gen release strategy, but how do you get Nintendo fans to upgrade for processing power when they've not shown to go for that in the past? You hamper Switch 2 sales by doing cross-gen and that in turn would make the already reluctant third parties (they never have faith in Nintendo) hesitate even more. You'd invite a negative feedback cycle where lack of sales leads to lack of games which leads to lack of sales.

But above all, you assume that Nintendo fans would be tired of Switch in only two years from now. What is that based on?

And what do you think Nintendo needed to do to not be down 13% YOY? It's still a notable decline with some of systems biggest software releases since launch, cumulatively bigger than FY09 software releases correct? Can Nintendo continually just pump out bigger sellers? NSMB alone outsold almost all of FY 2011's titles, despite FY 2011 having a more dense, more varied and higher quality release schedule. This is exactly why I don't see the 4 year green future some of you are predicting and  I couldn't see the wii having much of an alternate ending in its life through more software output. If Animal Crossing outsells Pokemon Snap, Zelda BOTW2, Metroid Prime 4 and Bayonetta 3 combined, will we turn around and say 2021 just had a bad line up and thats why the Switch declined? I will wait patiently and see as I think there's only so much Nintendo can do to ensure a constant stream of new mega hits. At some point it becomes a throw of the dice, whereas there bread and butter releases do commendable 5-10m. If Mario Galaxy 2 is not seen as a major release in  FY 2011, and a 5m selling holiday title like DK is dismissed, maybe it's not actually sustainable to keep software afloat in the way you imagine and thus not the hardware either. 

With regards to Switch 2 launch titles, Whatever is releasing on Switch that holiday, also arrives on Switch 2. So the launch titles could be a Pokemon Remake, A Zelda Collection, Mario Odyssey 2. Whatever it is that Nintendo is already planning for 2022... Could that be enough? I absolutely think so, an exclusive here or there for less popular franchises like Star Fox or Metroid would be welcome before 2024, but I think superior versions and  better third party support is enough reasons for Nintendo's core audience to upgrade in the initial year, whilst late adopters and casuals continue to see the cheaper Switch as attractive purchase if Switch 2 doesn't interest them right away. I don't think there has been a president set that Nintendo fans won't upgrade for processing power. Nintendo fans won't upgrade if there are a lack of big IPs, or if the system is not handheld, but the Switch 2 will be a handheld, have physical benefits and can easily launch with big IPs.... By your own estimation, you expect hugely successful/high selling software line ups for the next few years. I think a Switch 2 would certainly sell much better than a SKU update and I'm sure many people expect to see one of those in the coming years.

Would it be better to just wait til 2024? I don't think so. It's hard to predict a trajectory for the Switch and its audience in 4 years time, but the same way people were just not here for the 3DS, I could see many people just loosing interest in a hybrid Nintendo platform which is why I think laying the foundation for their future userbase whilst interest is in its peak and using that peak to introduce something future proof is vaulable.

Regarding 3rd party. I think people deeply overestimate the value developers see in big hardware sales, not that I expect a Switch 2 will launch poorly but it may be a more modest 10m first year. to due to cross gen. But developers are more concerned about the ability for their games to sell and function well on said platform, which is why Xbox One is so well supported. This is why the wii was mostly given shovelware and why 90-80% retail releases skip the Switch and will continue to do so. Switch 2 does not need to sell faster than Switch to receive games, it needs to be a more viable platform with a future ahead where the technology fits with developers own pipeline. A Switch 2 would never be in lack of games from Nintendo (unless the Switch was also in lack of games in 2023), it will never be lack of indies (infact I could see many more making exclusives), nor do I think it will be ignored from many big third parties for whom it is also be a handheld device in line with a PS4 specs, but much better memory and more powerful when docked. This is in a market where diminishing returns, 4k ambitions and reconstruction technology makes it a no brainer for far more developers to support it then they supported Switch, especially as PS5/SX wouldn't be quite so dominant in terns of software sales or userbase yet. Of course the Switch 2 will come into its owns with exclusives like Zelda, its own smash bros, new 3D Mario in and around 2024-2025.


On the last point, 2 years and 6 months is a long time. 2 years and 6months ago, we were discussing whether Labo would be a flop or not. Typically by this 5 and a 1/2 year point, Nintendo would have already released a new premium SKU like the DSi XL. The biggest software sellers are behind it and usage dwindles. There is no concrete data to go on, its just a collection of anecdotes including personal. If people would be ready for a premium SKU, they would be ready for a Switch 2 imo.

Last edited by Otter - 4 days ago

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This idea of a soft transition sounds fucking horrible to me, frankly. You'd get the worst of both worlds; Switch 1 would be robbed of its potential, and the new system won't be fully taken advantage of until years into its life.

Give me 5-7 years of proper support, then a hard reset and a new system with actual exclusives, thank you very much. 



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Otter said:

Wii shipments for the fiscal years ending March...

2009: 25.94m
2010: 20.54m (-21%)
2011: 15.08m (-26%)
2012: 9.84m (-35%)
2013: 3.99m (-60%)

Like I said in my previous post, 2009 closed out with high stock levels; 5.43m were shipped in January to March 2009, followed by only 2.23m in April to June 2009. If you account for stock levels and take away 1m from 2009 and add it to 2010 which is more representative of sell-through, then you are only looking at a decline of ~3m from one fiscal year to the next which is under 15%. Consequently, that would make the decline for 2011 bigger, but 2011 was already notably weaker in releases than previous years.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/wii.html

2007: Wii Sports, Wii Play
2008: Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Japan, America), Wii Fit (Japan)
2009: Wii Fit (America, Europe), Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Europe), Mario Kart Wii
2010: Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, New Super Mario Bros. Wii
2011: Wii Party
2012: N/A
2013: N/A

The biggest fiscal years strongly correlate with the release timings of the biggest Nintendo games. SSBB and Wii Fit spilled over into 2009, because it wasn't until March 2008 that SSBB got released in America while Wii Fit got a spring 2008 release in both America and Europe. 2010's big releases (WSR, WFP and NSMBW combined for over 80m lifetime); 2011's releases couldn't even combine for 30m (Wii Party, Super Mario Galaxy 2 and all the rest). 2012's release schedule was underwhelming; I already posted what Nintendo did during calendar year 2011. It's no secret that the Wii lived by Nintendo's first party lineup, so it shouldn't be hard to believe that it died by the lack of it.

Moving on to your faulty hardware logic...

Someone who buys a revision isn't necessarily out of the ecosystem only three years later. All it takes to retain is a next gen console that is worth buying and if Nintendo pulled that off, they would prolong the lifecycle of Switch and get all the benefits from next gen. Your logic is that a good five years of Switch are enough and that should be used to fuel into (presumably) five good years for Switch 2, but it would obviously be better for Nintendo's business if they get a good seven years out of Switch that fuel into another long lifecycle for Switch 2. There's no good reason to believe that they can't pull that off. It would actually be easier to go that route, because their best first party developers can finish their Switch games in late 2020 and throughout 2021 and then prepare to launch next gen games in late 2024 and throughout 2025 to get Switch 2 strong out of the gates. But judging from your post, you are actually talking about second string teams being supposed to prepare the launch year titles for Switch 2?

You also mentioned a cross-gen release strategy, but how do you get Nintendo fans to upgrade for processing power when they've not shown to go for that in the past? You hamper Switch 2 sales by doing cross-gen and that in turn would make the already reluctant third parties (they never have faith in Nintendo) hesitate even more. You'd invite a negative feedback cycle where lack of sales leads to lack of games which leads to lack of sales.

But above all, you assume that Nintendo fans would be tired of Switch in only two years from now. What is that based on?

And what do you think Nintendo needed to do to not be down 13% YOY? It's still a notable decline with some of systems biggest software releases since launch, cumulatively bigger than FY09 software releases correct? Can Nintendo continually just pump out bigger sellers? NSMB alone outsold almost all of FY 2011's titles, despite FY 2011 having a more dense, more varied and higher quality release schedule. This is exactly why I don't see the 4 year green future some of you are predicting and  I couldn't see the wii having much of an alternate ending in its life through more software output. If Animal Crossing outsells Pokemon Snap, Zelda BOTW2, Metroid Prime 4 and Bayonetta 3 combined, will we turn around and say 2021 just had a bad line up and thats why the Switch declined? I will wait patiently and see as I think there's only so much Nintendo can do to ensure a constant stream of new mega hits. At some point it becomes a throw of the dice, whereas there bread and butter releases do commendable 5-10m. If Mario Galaxy 2 is not seen as a major release in  FY 2011, and a 5m selling holiday title like DK is dismissed, maybe it's not actually sustainable to keep software afloat in the way you imagine and thus not the hardware either. 

With regards to Switch 2 launch titles, Whatever is releasing on Switch that holiday, also arrives on Switch 2. So the launch titles could be a Pokemon Remake, A Zelda Collection, Mario Odyssey 2. Whatever it is that Nintendo is already planning for 2022... Could that be enough? I absolutely think so, an exclusive here or there for less popular franchises like Star Fox or Metroid would be welcome before 2024, but I think superior versions and  better third party support is enough reasons for Nintendo's core audience to upgrade in the initial year, whilst late adopters and casuals continue to see the cheaper Switch as attractive purchase if Switch 2 doesn't interest them right away. I don't think there has been a president set that Nintendo fans won't upgrade for processing power. Nintendo fans won't upgrade if there are a lack of big IPs, or if the system is not handheld, but the Switch 2 will be a handheld, have physical benefits and can easily launch with big IPs.... By your own estimation, you expect hugely successful/high selling software line ups for the next few years. I think a Switch 2 would certainly sell much better than a SKU update and I'm sure many people expect to see one of those in the coming years.

Would it be better to just wait til 2024? I don't think so. It's hard to predict a trajectory for the Switch and its audience in 4 years time, but the same way people were just not here for the 3DS, I could see many people just loosing interest in a hybrid Nintendo platform which is why I think laying the foundation for their future userbase whilst interest is in its peak and using that peak to introduce something future proof is vaulable.

Regarding 3rd party. I think people deeply overestimate the value developers see in big hardware sales, not that I expect a Switch 2 will launch poorly but it may be a more modest 10m first year. to due to cross gen. But developers are more concerned about the ability for their games to sell and function well on said platform, which is why Xbox One is so well supported. This is why the wii was mostly given shovelware and why 90-80% retail releases skip the Switch and will continue to do so. Switch 2 does not need to sell faster than Switch to receive games, it needs to be a more viable platform with a future ahead where the technology fits with developers own pipeline. A Switch 2 would never be in lack of games from Nintendo (unless the Switch was also in lack of games in 2023), it will never be lack of indies (infact I could see many more making exclusives), nor do I think it will be ignored from many big third parties for whom it is also be a handheld device in line with a PS4 specs, but much better memory and more powerful when docked. This is in a market where diminishing returns, 4k ambitions and reconstruction technology makes it a no brainer for far more developers to support it then they supported Switch, especially as PS5/SX wouldn't be quite so dominant in terns of software sales or userbase yet. Of course the Switch 2 will come into its owns with exclusives like Zelda, its own smash bros, new 3D Mario in and around 2024-2025.


On the last point, 2 years and 6 months is a long time. 2 years and 6months ago, we were discussing whether Labo would be a flop or not. Typically by this 5 and a 1/2 year point, Nintendo would have already released a new premium SKU like the DSi XL. The biggest software sellers are behind it and usage dwindles. There is no concrete data to go on, its just a collection of anecdotes including personal. If people would be ready for a premium SKU, they would be ready for a Switch 2 imo.

The hybrid thing is convenient, it's not a cool gimmick with a ticking clock. It would take a lot for people to loose interest on that level of convenience. I didn't think I would disagree so much on everything someone wrote about this topic but I do here. All suppositions seem to be reversed for me



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

curl-6 said:

This idea of a soft transition sounds fucking horrible to me, frankly. You'd get the worst of both worlds; Switch 1 would be robbed of its potential, and the new system won't be fully taken advantage of until years into its life.

Give me 5-7 years of proper support, then a hard reset and a new system with actual exclusives, thank you very much.

I don't get why people don't get this basic fact



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Shaunodon said:
nuckles87 said:
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it here: I think it depends on what you consider a Switch 2. I think there will definitely be some sort of hardware upgrade next year, but I also expect most, if not all of the content made for it will be compatible with the original Switch. The modular design of the Switch means they could quite easily release an upgraded version of the tablet to sell standalone for current Switch owners to encourage upgrades. If they do something like that, I could see a Switch successor that also changes the joycons and dock waiting until the mid-2020s.

As much as I wouldn't mind something like a Switch Pro, I can't see the point in it. The only purpose would be for supporting new AAA third party games, which have a nice market on Switch but not enough to justify a hardware revision. We're seeing enough of those games can already run on Switch with enough work put in, and the few that can't right now can be early releases for Switch 2 in 2024/2025.

People that buy Switch want to play 1st party games and other killer exclusives for the system. Most of those titles we've seen so far haven't even taken full advantage of the Switch hardware yet, so I can't see why any of the future ones would be restricted by it.

There are a few things Nintendo could do with an upgraded Switch now.

They can add a larger, 1080p screen. They can make it 4K capable. With a higher res screen and more onboard power, they can also make it a more capable VR device. 


A Switch Pro would not only be more capable of running third party games, it could also run first party Nintendo games at higher resolutions and frame rates, both in portable and docked mode. There are already first party games that don’t run at 1080p now (like the Xenoblade games, Mario Odyssey, BOTW), and with 4K TVs becoming more prevalent there is DEFINITELY a market for this sort of thing, and if they can do that without dividing the market, there is little incentive not to.

Honestly, Nintendo’s only real incentives for releasing a true “Switch 2” would be if they want to make significant changes to the platform as a whole (such as revised joy cons and dock with new features, altered form factor, or a VR pack-in peripheral), or be able to no longer promise near-universal compatibility between the Switch family of devices. If Nintendo’s fine with the current Switch joy con & dock tech, and are okay with just slowly phasing out software compatibility with older models ala smart phones, they may never need to make an official “Switch 2”. XD

Although I do fully expect a Switch 2. If Nintendo was going to go all-in on a smartphone-like upgrade mentality, we’d be getting one THIS year. But I can definitely see them doing something along the lines of a PS4 Pro or New 3DS.

Last edited by nuckles87 - 4 days ago

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nuckles87 said:

A Switch Pro would not only be more capable of running third party games

If third parties can scarcely be bothered porting to an install base of 57 million and rapidly growing, they're not going to port to a revision that represents a small fraction of that userbase.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

You’re right, a lot of third parties are skipping the Switch and would not be incentivized by a Switch Pro (particularly as I envision it, which would require the game to be compatible with all Switches). I’m not saying a Switch Pro would attract more third parties. 

That said, while the Switch may not be getting ALL the third party games, it’s still getting plenty. Including some high profile ones that are pushing the Switch to its limits. And these games would benefit from a Switch Pro. And there are definitely Switch owners who would be interested in this kind of device.

Not to mention the many third party games that don’t push the Switch, but would now be able to take advantage of higher frame rates and resolutions.



nuckles87 said:
Shaunodon said:

As much as I wouldn't mind something like a Switch Pro, I can't see the point in it. The only purpose would be for supporting new AAA third party games, which have a nice market on Switch but not enough to justify a hardware revision. We're seeing enough of those games can already run on Switch with enough work put in, and the few that can't right now can be early releases for Switch 2 in 2024/2025.

People that buy Switch want to play 1st party games and other killer exclusives for the system. Most of those titles we've seen so far haven't even taken full advantage of the Switch hardware yet, so I can't see why any of the future ones would be restricted by it.

There are a few things Nintendo could do with an upgraded Switch now.

They can add a larger, 1080p screen. They can make it 4K capable. With a higher res screen and more onboard power, they can also make it a more capable VR device. 


A Switch Pro would not only be more capable of running third party games, it could also run first party Nintendo games at higher resolutions and frame rates, both in portable and docked mode. There are already first party games that don’t run at 1080p now (like the Xenoblade games, Mario Odyssey, BOTW), and with 4K TVs becoming more prevalent there is DEFINITELY a market for this sort of thing, and if they can do that without dividing the market, there is little incentive not to.

Honestly, Nintendo’s only real incentives for releasing a true “Switch 2” would be if they want to make significant changes to the platform as a whole (such as revised joy cons and dock with new features, or a VR pack-in peripheral), or be able to no longer promise near-universal compatibility between the Switch family of devices. If Nintendo’s fine with the current Switch joy con & dock tech, and are okay with just slowly phasing out software compatibility with older models ala smart phones, they may never need to make an official “Switch 2”. XD

Although I do fully expect a Switch 2. 

Again, these are the games I'm talking about when I say they haven't fully utilised the Switch's capabilities yet. Take into account that BotW was a game very much developed for Wii U initially, and then they stripped back the Wii U aspects (gamepad functionality) and had to quickly ready it for Switch. Both of the Xenoblades so far were pushed out with ~2 years dev time, to help fill out the release schedule. Mario Odyssey was another launch year game, and it wouldn't surprise me if it was originally intended for Wii U, but at some point had it's development shifted to Switch instead.

With more years actually focused on development for Switch now, they should have a lot less problems fully optimising games. And unlike the twins, their games aren't focused on trying to push raw graphical power, so they won't be much more demanding.

There may be a market for Switch games in 4k, but it's definitely not the vast majority of people who buy the systems. If there's any chance for a new Nintendo system running games in 4k, it'll be their next gen system, not a mid-gen upgrade. Even then, since there's no chance they'll turn back from the hybrid architecture, it wouldn't surprise me if their next system only targets 1440p-1800p, with a 1080p portable screen. I can even see games on next-gen twins that are 4k, going down to 1080p (docked) on Switch 2 or whatever they call it.

4k just isn't that big a deal yet. Not for a Nintendo system or the people who buy them. 1080p will still be passable for the next 10 years, even while 4k slowly becomes the standard. I'd still expect Switch 2 to target higher than that, but if some games are only 1080p in 2025-2029, it won't be a world ender.



Otter said:

And what do you think Nintendo needed to do to not be down 13% YOY? It's still a notable decline with some of systems biggest software releases since launch, cumulatively bigger than FY09 software releases correct? Can Nintendo continually just pump out bigger sellers? NSMB alone outsold almost all of FY 2011's titles, despite FY 2011 having a more dense, more varied and higher quality release schedule. This is exactly why I don't see the 4 year green future some of you are predicting and  I couldn't see the wii having much of an alternate ending in its life through more software output. If Animal Crossing outsells Pokemon Snap, Zelda BOTW2, Metroid Prime 4 and Bayonetta 3 combined, will we turn around and say 2021 just had a bad line up and thats why the Switch declined? I will wait patiently and see as I think there's only so much Nintendo can do to ensure a constant stream of new mega hits. At some point it becomes a throw of the dice, whereas there bread and butter releases do commendable 5-10m. If Mario Galaxy 2 is not seen as a major release in  FY 2011, and a 5m selling holiday title like DK is dismissed, maybe it's not actually sustainable to keep software afloat in the way you imagine and thus not the hardware either. 

With regards to Switch 2 launch titles, Whatever is releasing on Switch that holiday, also arrives on Switch 2. So the launch titles could be a Pokemon Remake, A Zelda Collection, Mario Odyssey 2. Whatever it is that Nintendo is already planning for 2022... Could that be enough? I absolutely think so, an exclusive here or there for less popular franchises like Star Fox or Metroid would be welcome before 2024, but I think superior versions and  better third party support is enough reasons for Nintendo's core audience to upgrade in the initial year, whilst late adopters and casuals continue to see the cheaper Switch as attractive purchase if Switch 2 doesn't interest them right away. I don't think there has been a president set that Nintendo fans won't upgrade for processing power. Nintendo fans won't upgrade if there are a lack of big IPs, or if the system is not handheld, but the Switch 2 will be a handheld, have physical benefits and can easily launch with big IPs.... By your own estimation, you expect hugely successful/high selling software line ups for the next few years. I think a Switch 2 would certainly sell much better than a SKU update and I'm sure many people expect to see one of those in the coming years.

Would it be better to just wait til 2024? I don't think so. It's hard to predict a trajectory for the Switch and its audience in 4 years time, but the same way people were just not here for the 3DS, I could see many people just loosing interest in a hybrid Nintendo platform which is why I think laying the foundation for their future userbase whilst interest is in its peak and using that peak to introduce something future proof is vaulable.

Regarding 3rd party. I think people deeply overestimate the value developers see in big hardware sales, not that I expect a Switch 2 will launch poorly but it may be a more modest 10m first year. to due to cross gen. But developers are more concerned about the ability for their games to sell and function well on said platform, which is why Xbox One is so well supported. This is why the wii was mostly given shovelware and why 90-80% retail releases skip the Switch and will continue to do so. Switch 2 does not need to sell faster than Switch to receive games, it needs to be a more viable platform with a future ahead where the technology fits with developers own pipeline. A Switch 2 would never be in lack of games from Nintendo (unless the Switch was also in lack of games in 2023), it will never be lack of indies (infact I could see many more making exclusives), nor do I think it will be ignored from many big third parties for whom it is also be a handheld device in line with a PS4 specs, but much better memory and more powerful when docked. This is in a market where diminishing returns, 4k ambitions and reconstruction technology makes it a no brainer for far more developers to support it then they supported Switch, especially as PS5/SX wouldn't be quite so dominant in terns of software sales or userbase yet. Of course the Switch 2 will come into its owns with exclusives like Zelda, its own smash bros, new 3D Mario in and around 2024-2025.


On the last point, 2 years and 6 months is a long time. 2 years and 6months ago, we were discussing whether Labo would be a flop or not. Typically by this 5 and a 1/2 year point, Nintendo would have already released a new premium SKU like the DSi XL. The biggest software sellers are behind it and usage dwindles. There is no concrete data to go on, its just a collection of anecdotes including personal. If people would be ready for a premium SKU, they would be ready for a Switch 2 imo.

Every console declines at some point, but that's not the point where the introduction of next gen is necessary. The PS4's shipments peaked in its third full fiscal year (ending March 2017), but the PS5 didn't launch in 2018 because of that. The Wii's decline we are talking about (following a 25.94m year) was coming off the biggest year a home console had had ever. What bothers me in this discussion is that you continue to frame any sort of decline as an event of urgency that demands to move on to next gen, but a console that ships 20m+ is still more than fine. If Switch declines in the following fiscal year from, say, 22m shipped to 20m shipped, then that's nothing to worry about. Every console completes its growth phase eventually, but that's not the same thing as hitting saturation.

The Wii and Switch aren't comparable anyway, because the Wii's third party support was questionable to begin with and broke down after about four years; that's why I said that the Wii lived and died by its first party support. The best comparison to Switch you can get is the DS; while Nintendo's first party software had fewer big hitters in the latter years, the DS kept trucking because it had a lot to offer in terms of third party software. That's what we have ahead of us; Nintendo won't be able to have a first party lineup with the same impact on Switch (first installment of a series moves more hardware than sequels), but the sheer volume of overall software quality will sustain hardware sales at a high level.

What do you think of Sony's PS4 to PS5 transition in terms of timing and everything else? Same question about Microsoft and Xbox One to Xbox Series X. If you answer these questions, it would be easier to understand your perspective on the matter.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

curl-6 said:

This idea of a soft transition sounds fucking horrible to me, frankly. You'd get the worst of both worlds; Switch 1 would be robbed of its potential, and the new system won't be fully taken advantage of until years into its life.

Give me 5-7 years of proper support, then a hard reset and a new system with actual exclusives, thank you very much. 

Why on earth do you think that would happen? That makes absolutely no sense.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.