If third parties can scarcely be bothered porting to an install base of 57 million and rapidly growing, they're not going to port to a revision that represents a small fraction of that userbase.

You’re right, a lot of third parties are skipping the Switch and would not be incentivized by a Switch Pro (particularly as I envision it, which would require the game to be compatible with all Switches). I’m not saying a Switch Pro would attract more third parties. 

That said, while the Switch may not be getting ALL the third party games, it’s still getting plenty. Including some high profile ones that are pushing the Switch to its limits. And these games would benefit from a Switch Pro. And there are definitely Switch owners who would be interested in this kind of device.

Not to mention the many third party games that don’t push the Switch, but would now be able to take advantage of higher frame rates and resolutions.

Again, these are the games I'm talking about when I say they haven't fully utilised the Switch's capabilities yet. Take into account that BotW was a game very much developed for Wii U initially, and then they stripped back the Wii U aspects (gamepad functionality) and had to quickly ready it for Switch. Both of the Xenoblades so far were pushed out with ~2 years dev time, to help fill out the release schedule. Mario Odyssey was another launch year game, and it wouldn't surprise me if it was originally intended for Wii U, but at some point had it's development shifted to Switch instead.

With more years actually focused on development for Switch now, they should have a lot less problems fully optimising games. And unlike the twins, their games aren't focused on trying to push raw graphical power, so they won't be much more demanding.

There may be a market for Switch games in 4k, but it's definitely not the vast majority of people who buy the systems. If there's any chance for a new Nintendo system running games in 4k, it'll be their next gen system, not a mid-gen upgrade. Even then, since there's no chance they'll turn back from the hybrid architecture, it wouldn't surprise me if their next system only targets 1440p-1800p, with a 1080p portable screen. I can even see games on next-gen twins that are 4k, going down to 1080p (docked) on Switch 2 or whatever they call it.

4k just isn't that big a deal yet. Not for a Nintendo system or the people who buy them. 1080p will still be passable for the next 10 years, even while 4k slowly becomes the standard. I'd still expect Switch 2 to target higher than that, but if some games are only 1080p in 2025-2029, it won't be a world ender.

Why on earth do you think that would happen? That makes absolutely no sense.

I get you are just making a point, but given your opinions on the Switch's output as of now, imagine the complaints we'd hear if Switch lasted a measly 5 years...

If I pin-point the playstation 4/5, I think the timing is right for what they offer  technologically and being aware of the competition.

The PS4 is likely to record another extremely stable year of 220-50m in software sales , on par with 2019, which is not far off 2018. Extremely stable for a system about to replaced this year. It's buzzing with software and the userbase is extremely active. Nintendo's ability to echo this in their own environments is something i really question. They are still driven extremely heavily by 1st party and I have my doubts about the appetite of their audience for 2 Mario karts per generation, 2 Smash Bros per generation, 2 Animal Crossings. Without that kind of line up, I see steady decline for maybe 3 years leading up to holiday 2024. I mentioned the wii but I can look at the DS too. When it drops from 190m FY09 to 150m FY10, I can't see any obvuously lack of effort from Nintendo's side. To me it appears like a result of the difficulty in replicating the success of a Nintendogs or Brain Trainning. Its expected that products mature and decline, but companies normally act on this. Not as panic, but just a calculated business decision. Planning a device to arrive arrive almost 6 years after launch is not a mad rush. 

Nintendo profits can peak in 2023 due to software great, but I think thats a big if.

Ultimately no company wants to go through years of notable profit dips, if they can revitalise them they will. In the video game industry it was seen as a necessity to balance the actual capacity of teams to produce titles for new hardware, the necessary wait to produce technology leaps which validate new hardware and waiting for desire in the audience to once again repurchase hadrware.

I feel like there are so many things pointing at us saying that things do not need to be so cut and dry this decade. Even across Switch and PS4, a lot of games are operating in the same development environment. Nintendo couldn't just tweak a DS game and put it on the 3DS, they'd have to literally make 2 games. You couldn't just polish a Wii game and put it on the Wii U, it'd look like a turd. We're finally at a point where developers (and Nintendo), could comfortably transition smoothly between 2 pieces of hardware without  mandating  slums inbewteen. I' not talking about Ninetndo forcing out a new platform every 2 years, its introducing one almost 6 years after your last debuted and maybe 2 years after it peaked. I think a difference in my believe is that people believe this to be the end of the Switch whereas I don't.

Regarding software development and that fact the prior generations would have never had this opportunity. There is nothing on PS4 which couldn't be ported to Switch, although right now many games will still take too many compromises/time. That is exactly what I believe will change in the coming generation. Diminishing returns, a push for 4k, ray traycing & a key focus on scalabilty across all modern engines and the proven effectiveness of DLSS (which will only get better) will create a golden opportunity for Nintendo. I had to cackle watching the Horizon 2 breakdown on DF when they literally pause and zoom in to the lighting of the hairs on her neck.. Its nice but not a necessity, But anyway. This window of opportunity is widest at the beginning of the generation, where devs can establish their audience on X or Y platform. The reason why so many devs will ignore Switches sales is because they know that 150m people already have access to all their newest games, why waste resources squezing it on the Nintendo thingy. This won't apply in 2022 because PS5/SX won't have a huge userbase. I certainly don't want to push 3rd party support as the main point of releasing a Switch 2 in holiday 2022, but I think its the one of the most concrete ways for Ninetndo to actually end a "generation" selling 250m units of software. It is one of the safest ways to actually plot growth imo

Topping of all of this is the fact that I don't think Nintendo is planning some unqiue successor to the Switch. Nor do I believe we'll see some sudden visual leap from most of their 1st party studios outside of a few titles like Zelda and 3D mario. Its really just a case of saying, we can use some new shiny hardware to help the balance sheets this year, should we build it to last for 3 years or the next 7? For example  I don't think we will ever get something like the Xbox One X again, in future the XBox One X would be the Xbox Series S (anaconda)

From a Nintendo perspective you ask yourself. Will Mario Kart 9 sell more on Switch in 2023 or would it sell better on Switch 1+2? Will we make make more hardware revenue in 2023 selling just the Switch or could aim for 30m units like playstation achieved during the peak of  PS1/PS2. And that really caps it off, I don't see a $399 Switch 2 making a Switch 1 obsolete, I think they can tag team and nothing will be lost to Nintendo or the end user. Not until Nintendo decides its time to drop Switch 1. 

My only lingering thoughts are, what is the actual reality of a 2022 chip in terms of power, battery, cost. I know releasing in 2024 is the predictable choice, I just think there is potentially a profitable route for the next decade for them.  And of course maybe I'm completely wrong about Switch late gen software sales, maybe it maintains its peak. I'm just going off what I recall from their past and by people's usual casual interest getting the main key Nintendo games and calling it a day.

If they release Mario Kart 9 this Christmas, they wouldn't need a new system until 2029.

MK8 is doing just fine though, they probably don't need MK9 until 2029.

I love a new MK for NSW I could see it for holiday 2021 and if it does come out at that time it proves NSW will live for along time 

Lol nice reply

Honestly, it would depend on the content of those 5 years.

If it was replaced in 2022 but between now and then we get a ton of great games I actually wouldn't mind. I'd feel it was a tad premature from a business point of view but I wouldn't personally be upset or feel shortchanged.

Say the second half of this year picks up, next year is as strong as 2017/2019, and I all the games I want most arrive within Switch's lifespan and are as amazing as I hope, (BOTW2, Bayonetta 3, Metroid Prime 4...) I could accept a 5 year cycle.