1. Not just AAA's, but smaller 3rd parties as well. Switch is great as a secondary system, but I feel like there aren't alot of gamers using it as their primary system, unless they really like Nintendo 1st party. Nintendo 1st party is strong, nobody can dispute that, but in the end you're only getting like 5 or 6 Nintendo 1st/2nd party games a year, that leaves alot of dry periods, unless you like indies or smaller Japanese games alot (which some do, but not all gamers). Switch just doesn't feel like a complete package for a gamer like myself who likes many different types of games, specifically because it is largely lacking in the 3rd party department, especially western AA's and AAA's.
2. That fact isn't lost on me at all. Switch, much like Wii and Wii U, is largely being avoided by the larger western publishers and even the smaller ones, sometimes Japanese publishers as well. When it does get those games, they are late ports, sometimes bad ports at that. I absolutely feel like if Switch was the complete package it would be selling even better than it already is. The concept of a portable/console hybrid was clearly a great idea or else Switch wouldn't be selling as well as it is, but the lower specs that the handheld form factor necessitates also makes getting the latest, state of the art games to run on the Switch a nightmare of porting. However, MS seemingly planning to offer a lower end entry level next gen console might just be able to change that situation for Nintendo finally. If Lockhart is indeed 4 tflop, Nintendo might just be able to pull off something like 3 tflop docked, 1.5 tflop handheld by 2023, which would make getting ports of next-gen AA's and AAA's much easier for Nintendo, as the downgrades needed would be far less extensive than those needed on Switch with current gen games. Nintendo has an actual opportunity to have the best of both worlds for most of next gen, both the successful hybrid form factor, and the latest 3rd party support for the latter half of the 9th gen. They should take advantage of that. If the form factor is what lead to the success of Switch 1, there is no reason to believe that a successor with the same hybrid form factor, but higher specs that allow it to get more games from 3rd parties, wouldn't be an even bigger success for Nintendo.
3. I was under the impression that Wii's sales started to tank before the Wii U was even announced. Weren't 2011 sales already down by about 35% compared to 2010 sales? I don't think it was Wii U that killed Wii, so much as it was that the motion control fad was already starting to die out, people were ready for new hardware that wasn't so gimmicky. Wii U was just a poor idea all around, they just replaced one gimmick with another, and it was a gimmick that people didn't really like all that much. If Wii U had been a proper next-gen console aimed at core gamers, without the silly tablet gimmick and specs that were at least triple the specs of the 360 and PS3, I think it would been more successful than Wii U was, obviously not a Switch level success, but probably would have been able to move somewhere between Gamecube and N64 numbers, since they would have had the early sales advantage of having the first next-gen console.
1. Through Switch's first 37 months on the market, Nintendo had released 30 games that became million sellers. If you add the games that weren't million sellers, including Nintendo's digital-only games, then Nintendo has released more than one game per month on average, so that's more than twice the quantity that you assumed. This number is excluding the NES and SNES apps that are part of Nintendo Switch Online where Nintendo makes their classic games available.
In any case, you have conceded that your basis is your personal taste, much like curl-6's seemingly endless complaints.
2. This assumes success of Lockhart and that would be a huge gamble for Nintendo to bank their strategy on. We've already seen in the eighth gen that the base models of the XB1 and PS4 were getting merely passable versions later on, and Lockhart is going to start out with that while mid-gen upgrades for the PS5 and XSX should be absolutely a given, so by 2024 it's much more likely that the base for third party developers will be the PS5 and XSX, not Lockhart. Beyond that, an early Switch 2 launch comes with the problem that the majority of owners is not ready for next generation, especially if the primary incentive for upgrading are games that the majority doesn't care about (AAA third party software). Nintendo ran into this problem with the Wii U where their sales pitch at E3 2011 was AAA third party software and Wii owners reacted very hostile to it.
Software sells hardware, and Nintendo's first party output took a nosedive in 2011 in terms of pedigree and quantity. 2011 had:
Kirby's Epic Yarn (February, PAL-only)
Mario Sports Mix (Febuary (NA), January (PAL))
The Last Story (January, JP-only)
Pandora's Tower (May, JP-only)
Wii Play: Motion (June)
Rhythm Heaven: Fever (July, JP-only)
Xenoblade Chronicles (August, PAL-only)
Kirby's Return to Dreamland (November)
Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games (November)
Poképark 2: Wonders Beyond (November, JP-only)
The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (November)
Fortune Street (December)
There are a lot of staggered releases in there, so cleaned up it looks like this:
Japan: 9 games
North America: 6 games
Europe, Australia: 8 games
I've written down the release months above, so you can tell how barren most of the year was for each territory and that it was a very backloaded year (4 of the 5 global releases in 2011 landed in November or December). Furthermore, it was a year without big system sellers because Nintendo kept having the wrong idea with Zelda; the producer Eiji Aonuma took pride in saying that the whole game feels like a puzzle, but none of the big Wii hits have the word 'puzzle' come to mind.
That a release schedule like that isn't good for momentum should be clear, but I can emphasize my point with the much more recent 2018 of Switch where the first three quarters of 2018 were light on important Nintendo software and momentum suffered. The holiday quarter of 2018 was huge because of Super Mario Party, Pokémon: Let's Go and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, allowing 2018 as a whole to finish with healthy year over year growth over 2017, but it didn't look healthy for much of 2018, especially because of the April to June quarter.
The Wii's 2009 played out similarly, but you probably don't remember the major dip in hardware sales in the first half of 2009 that made people rejoice that the fad is over. The second half of 2009 saw Nintendo release Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus and New Super Mario Bros. Wii as major games, and the resulting hardware sales made the haters choke on their own venom.
The Wii's 2012 saw another major decline over 2011. 2013 onwards essentially flatlined for Wii's hardware sales, but you can tell why if you check the Wikipedia link above and read up on Nintendo's software output for the Wii during the late life of the console.