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Forums - Sales Discussion - May NPD 2020: Switch ~530K; PS4/XBO >150K

Shadow1980 said:
mk7sx said:

Does anyone have the PS2 and DS 2005 and 2006 monthly NPD numbers?

I have scavenged a couple of months, but mostly cannot find them on here or GAF or through articles.

I got the hook up for you, bro.

Edit: Hmm. Didn't format correctly. Bear with me a bit. Well, I can't seem to get the table to be a more reasonable width, so I just combined the two and added 2006 figures for the PS2.

PS2 NDS
Jan. 2005 490 152
Feb. 538 135.8
March 492 137.4
April 332 62
May 273 59
June 355 112
July 260 82
Aug. 253 100
Sept. 268 164
Oct. 252 136
Nov. 535 370
Dec. 1477 1070
Jan. 2006 272 158
Feb. 299 150
March 273 184
April 205 140
May 232 147
June 312 593
July 241 377
Aug. 262 278
Sept. 306 403.4
Oct. 235 360
Nov. 664 918
Dec. 1400 1598.6

Thank you very much!



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Shadow1980 said:

I got the hook up for you, bro.

Edit: Hmm. Didn't format correctly. Bear with me a bit.

PS2
Jan. 2005 490
Feb. 538
March 492
April 332
May 273
June 355
July 260
Aug. 253
Sept. 268
Oct. 252
Nov. 535
Dec. 1477

NDS
479
746
2005 152
135.8
137.4
62
59
112
82
100
164
136
370
1070
2006 158
150
184
140
147
593
377
278
403.4
360
918
1598.6

Wow, those pre-lite DS numbers are atrocious, , especially March/April 2005, where it only did low XBO, even almost Wii U numbers. Really didn't think it would have done that bad at the time

Ds became stronger with New Super Mario Bros. The Great seller for the big portable. 



Shadow1980 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Wow, those pre-lite DS numbers are atrocious, , especially March/April 2005, where it only did low XBO, even almost Wii U numbers. Really didn't think it would have done that bad at the time

Yeah. The DS did relatively poorly prior to the release of the Lite. To compare it to other Nintendo handhelds plus the Switch:

Overall, it sold only 2.58M in all of 2005. Meanwhile, the GBA sold 4.75M in 2001, the 3DS sold 4.11M in 2011, and the Switch sold 4.89M in 2017.

Wonder what kind of numbers Switch will do this December. I'm sure it'll be up YOY

2.04 million sold in 2019, maybe 2.5-3 million in 2020? Though the 3.31 million of DS looks unreachable



Ryng said:

Wonder what kind of numbers Switch will do this December. I'm sure it'll be up YOY

2.04 million sold in 2019, maybe 2.5-3 million in 2020? Though the 3.31 million of DS looks unreachable

Hard to say. The Switch being up YoY since March is clearly an artificial bubble fueled by the outbreak (the PS4 & XBO likewise saw big YoY jumps). It's YoY improvements had been generally trending downward, and it was even down YoY in January & February (assuming the best-guess estimates on Era weren't way under the mark). Those are signs that a system is closing in on the post-peak part of its life cycle. It's entirely possible that the recent console-buying bubble could front-load sales for this year, drawing away sales from later on this year. A lot of people that were waiting for this holiday to buy a Switch may have already bought one with their stimulus money. Even if that's not the case, it's still entirely possible that once this bubble is deflated that the Switch could be back to being flat or even down YoY.

Over 2.3M Switches have been sold in the U.S. in the March-May period, the second-largest non-holiday 3-month period ever after the DS's 2.44M sold in the April-June period, and one of the biggest YoY jumps ever. It's also far better than the Switch's previous best non-holiday 3-month period of a bit over 1M in Jan.-March 2019 (that's excluding the Switch's actual first three months; it sold 1.35M in that time span, but two-thirds of that were in just launch month). This sort of anomalous spike could serve to deplete the remaining pool of future buyers. There's only so many people willing and able to buy any given system, after all, and something unexpected that encourages them to buy it sooner rather than later could result in worse sales further down the road than what might have otherwise happened.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

this is the only place those numbers are available on the internet, vgc used to have that data aswell before the whole ps2/GC/OG xbox and gameboy/DS weekly data got removed



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Shadow1980 said:
Ryng said:

Wonder what kind of numbers Switch will do this December. I'm sure it'll be up YOY

2.04 million sold in 2019, maybe 2.5-3 million in 2020? Though the 3.31 million of DS looks unreachable

Hard to say. The Switch being up YoY since March is clearly an artificial bubble fueled by the outbreak (the PS4 & XBO likewise saw big YoY jumps). It's YoY improvements had been generally trending downward, and it was even down YoY in January & February (assuming the best-guess estimates on Era weren't way under the mark). Those are signs that a system is closing in on the post-peak part of its life cycle. It's entirely possible that the recent console-buying bubble could front-load sales for this year, drawing away sales from later on this year. A lot of people that were waiting for this holiday to buy a Switch may have already bought one with their stimulus money. Even if that's not the case, it's still entirely possible that once this bubble is deflated that the Switch could be back to being flat or even down YoY.

Over 2.3M Switches have been sold in the U.S. in the March-May period, the second-largest non-holiday 3-month period ever after the DS's 2.44M sold in the April-June period, and one of the biggest YoY jumps ever. It's also far better than the Switch's previous best non-holiday 3-month period of a bit over 1M in Jan.-March 2019 (that's excluding the Switch's actual first three months; it sold 1.35M in that time span, but two-thirds of that were in just launch month). This sort of anomalous spike could serve to deplete the remaining pool of future buyers. There's only so many people willing and able to buy any given system, after all, and something unexpected that encourages them to buy it sooner rather than later could result in worse sales further down the road than what might have otherwise happened.

Animal Crossing is a big system seller and brings new market tier. The growth of Xbox and PS4 is not the same, in size or shape. With Animal Crossing, switch have new type of consumers, because of that, the sales have big grow, second motive is Covid. 



With development slowing down and games being delayed this is going to lead to something I hadn't really thought about: The games that do come out will have "artificially" high sales due to people's desperation for any kind of new game. ACNH sold so well not just because it is a great game, but because of all the delays.

I predict, based on this, that Paper Mario Oragami King will be the best selling PM ever. This will be a great thing if they do return to form enough, as it will encourage them to continue the trend of going back to the old school style. If the game is innovative for the sake of being innovative and doesn't return some of the more demanded features of PM and PMTTYD then those great sales will probably reconfirm their resolve to innovate rather than going back to formula and tick all of us hardcore PM fans off for at least one more generation.

Covid 19 artificial sales bubble has a LOT of impact on the future direction of my favorite series ever and that kind of stresses me out. I don't want PM to perform so badly that they stop making them (a bad paper Mario game is better than most games to me still), but I want them to perform badly enough (when done like SS/CS) that they move in the old direction more (and OK does seem to be a step in the right direction so far).



Paper mario will be just fine and they are doing an effort to bring back the franchise to what made it special with the 2 first titles. And that effort will be rewarded cause there is a lot of hype to it and a pretty dusty schedule for the Switch atm so i see a lot of people buying it even if they wouldn't necessarily do it.

For the Switch Yoy growth, the console had little momentum in Jan and Feb 2020 since the last big game that came out was Pokemon in mid November while 2019 had Smash in December. Switch was bound to have a big leap even with just animal crossing but the Covid did help make the game go viral. I think it help bring a bigger audience but looking at social media and amazon it is clear the Switch is still in high demand even 3-4 months after that happened and even with social distancing becoming less of an issue.

I don't think it will keep that growth for each month but i do think it should stay up atleast till september, at that point it will depend on what move they do.



Agente42 said:

Animal Crossing is a big system seller and brings new market tier. The growth of Xbox and PS4 is not the same, in size or shape. With Animal Crossing, switch have new type of consumers, because of that, the sales have big grow, second motive is Covid.

Individual games rarely produce long-term increases to baseline sales. That goes for the latest Animal Crossing as well. In Japan, where AC:NH is one of the most successful games ever and appears to be the biggest system-seller for any system ever, the effect on sales was short-lived. Sure, it produced one of the best sales weeks for any system ever in Japan (and the biggest outside of the December holidays or launch weeks), but just three weeks later sales were back down to baseline levels, with said baseline not appearing any higher than the previous baseline. Even in the U.S., I can't seem to find a single instance of any individual game released in the past three generations producing any detectable gains for a period lasting more than two monthly sales periods (and in some cases those gains may have been assisted by other factors like price cuts). Usually you just see a spike in sales the month the game is released (and since U.S. sales are tracked monthly instead of weekly like in Japan, it takes a particularly big system-seller to make itself obvious in the data).

As for the PS4 & XBO, of course their COVID boosts haven't been as big, because they're old systems nearing the ends of their lives (five months to go until replacement). While demand was temporarily up as people got their stimulus checks, overall demand is down so sales may not be as high in absolute terms as they could have been if they were close to their peaks. Also, the total number of systems in the supply channel isn't going to be as big as it once was because shipments decline in late life, so there is likely less supply to meet the recent increase in demand. Even then, though, this past April was the second-biggest non-holiday month ever for the PS4, and tied with October 2016 (One S launch month) for biggest non-holiday month ever for the XBO. The PS4 and XBO were up 178% and 210%, respectively, from April 2019. Not as big as the Switch's 256%, but still massive.

Now, for March the Switch was up 161% from February, while for the PS4 and XBO their gains were 79% and 70%, respectively (March is usually down from February barring other factors). That's a much larger disparity than for April, which is where we are likely seeing an effect from AC:NH, but the smaller proportional gap in April suggests the AC effect wearing off. For May, the PS4 and XBO were down -62% and -54% from April, respectively, while the Switch was down only 34%, but with us being this far out from AC's release, I'd say it's more likely that we're seeing the effects of stock come into play after weeks of artificially increased demand for consoles.

Given the typical short-term effects of system-sellers as well as the observed effects of COVID-19 and the resulting windfalls from stimulus, the vast majority of the Switch's gains can be attributed to that, and not to Animal Crossing. There is no reason to assume that AC will by itself be capable of enhancing Switch sales for a long period of time. It didn't do so in Japan, and, especially given the external factors at play, there's no reason to think the situation is any different in the U.S.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Shadow1980 said:
Agente42 said:

Animal Crossing is a big system seller and brings new market tier. The growth of Xbox and PS4 is not the same, in size or shape. With Animal Crossing, switch have new type of consumers, because of that, the sales have big grow, second motive is Covid.

Individual games rarely produce long-term increases to baseline sales. That goes for the latest Animal Crossing as well. In Japan, where AC:NH is one of the most successful games ever and appears to be the biggest system-seller for any system ever, the effect on sales was short-lived. Sure, it produced one of the best sales weeks for any system ever in Japan (and the biggest outside of the December holidays or launch weeks), but just three weeks later sales were back down to baseline levels, with said baseline not appearing any higher than the previous baseline. Even in the U.S., I can't seem to find a single instance of any individual game released in the past three generations producing any detectable gains for a period lasting more than two monthly sales periods (and in some cases those gains may have been assisted by other factors like price cuts). Usually you just see a spike in sales the month the game is released (and since U.S. sales are tracked monthly instead of weekly like in Japan, it takes a particularly big system-seller to make itself obvious in the data).

As for the PS4 & XBO, of course their COVID boosts haven't been as big, because they're old systems nearing the ends of their lives (five months to go until replacement). While demand was temporarily up as people got their stimulus checks, overall demand is down so sales may not be as high in absolute terms as they could have been if they were close to their peaks. Also, the total number of systems in the supply channel isn't going to be as big as it once was because shipments decline in late life, so there is likely less supply to meet the recent increase in demand. Even then, though, this past April was the second-biggest non-holiday month ever for the PS4, and tied with October 2016 (One S launch month) for biggest non-holiday month ever for the XBO. The PS4 and XBO were up 178% and 210%, respectively, from April 2019. Not as big as the Switch's 256%, but still massive.

Now, for March the Switch was up 161% from February, while for the PS4 and XBO their gains were 79% and 70%, respectively (March is usually down from February barring other factors). That's a much larger disparity than for April, which is where we are likely seeing an effect from AC:NH, but the smaller proportional gap in April suggests the AC effect wearing off. For May, the PS4 and XBO were down -62% and -54% from April, respectively, while the Switch was down only 34%, but with us being this far out from AC's release, I'd say it's more likely that we're seeing the effects of stock come into play after weeks of artificially increased demand for consoles.

Given the typical short-term effects of system-sellers as well as the observed effects of COVID-19 and the resulting windfalls from stimulus, the vast majority of the Switch's gains can be attributed to that, and not to Animal Crossing. There is no reason to assume that AC will by itself be capable of enhancing Switch sales for a long period of time. It didn't do so in Japan, and, especially given the external factors at play, there's no reason to think the situation is any different in the U.S.

you are aware that the switch is selling everything that is shipped in japan, right? The baseline literally can not go higher due to production issues. There are lotteries there and for what it seems, the switch is being prioritized in the West rather than in Japan. Animal crossing will probably be the second best selling game ever in Japan and has brought in a new market( as evident by the rise of splatoon).