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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts April 2020 Discussion Thread

Stop with those emerging markets, they weren't so big deal, they just helped PS2 with around 5M units more, and besides this, I lowered the number on the PS4 from the 50M that PS2 did to 30/35M that PS4 should do and can do with the right things happening. I think 15M between what PS4 should do and PS2 did is enough of a difference for your "emerging markets" thing.

As for the catching to the DS, we will see.. it's is doubtful and hard, yes, however not impossible imo.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 25 May 2020

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According to VGChartz, PS2 sold 25.57 million outside the major regions (North America, Japan, and Europe) so not an insignificant amount.

PS2 also benefited from the PS3 stumbling out of the gate with a $600 price tag and so not quickly replacing it. PS5 is unlikely to trip up the same way and Sony have talked about wanting to transition players from PS4 to PS5 more quickly than in past generational shifts: https://www.gamespot.com/articles/sony-wants-a-faster-shift-from-ps4-to-ps5-than-in-/1100-6471259/



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

I can see the PS4 getting to 150m, but all of the "stars" would have to line up for them.  Here are all the potential things that would have to go right for them.

1) They definitely have to cut the price, preferably to $199.

2) They have been growing the market in Central and Eastern Europe this generation which is why sales are still high in Europe compared to the rest of the world.  They can still get a few years worth of sales from this.

3) Third parties may find they can make a lot of money by doing a bunch of PS4/XB1/Switch simultaneous releases and they continue this for several more years, because Switch is in its prime.

4) Corona virus is still going to be around for at least another year.  This can end up both helping PS4 and hurting PS5.  People are more likely to want a cheap console if they have to stay at home during a recession, especially if they were on the fence about getting one to begin with.

5) We still have to see the full reveal for PS5 (and series X), but it is likely to have a slow start for a variety of factors.  The slow PS5 start is going to help PS4 sales.

Each of these factors can boost the life of PS4 by several million, and if they all kick in then 150m is not out of the question.



yo33331 said:

Stop with those emerging markets, they weren't so big deal, they just helped PS2 with around 5M units more, and besides this, I lowered the number on the PS4 from the 50M that PS2 did to 30/35M that PS4 should do and can do with the right things happening. I think 15M between what PS4 should do and PS2 did is enough of a difference for your "emerging markets" thing.

As for the catching to the DS, we will see.. it's is doubtful and hard, yes, however not impossible imo.

PS2 sold 26M in RoW. No other consoles is even really close to that number, so yeah, they were a very big deal. And the PS2 got released there for the most part only after the release of the PS3 in the industrialized countries. Same with many eastern European countries, Middle East and northern Africa (which are all counted to Europe afaik). All in all that's probably about 40M consoles that were sold in countries where PS2 sales only opened up after the PS3 got released, not just 5% as you're claiming.

Claiming they were not a big deal is like saying that the PS4 won't sell over 115M, utterly ridiculous considering the data we have.



yo33331 said:

Personally I don't think the thing with the emerging markets is so big of a deal.. it did around 10% of what PS2 sold after PS3 launched, so not much ..

However even if it is a true valid thing, as I wrote PS4 need around 30-35M after PS5 launch, not 50M like PS2, so I think this big difference cover the emerging markets thing ..

As for the pricecuts, yes you may have point there, however hard disks are old technology now.. even xbox 360 in 2013-2014 dropped to 199$ with a hard drive so 10 years later (2022/2023 for the 99/149$ pricecut) I think is preety reasonable time for this price with hard disk included to be possible. However if sony will do it and want to do it this is another topic ...

About the PS consoles, yes we have 5 PS consoles, however PSV is a failure, you cannot even put it here when we talk about a successful console like PS4. And besides, it is handheld, PSP is handheld too, so a little different type of console. But even that PSP percentage based sold not so bad after PSV launched in 2011. Somewhere around 10M, which to that point PSP was around 70M so this is more than 10% of the total console sales, even close to 15%, so not so bad. Better than PS3.

However still with that PSP and PS3 were OK selling consoles. PS4 is very good selling console, that's why it will sell more, and which other is successful console ? PS1 and PS2. They are much closer to PS4 than PS3 and PSP are. Why PS4 would sell all of it's life on PS2 levels (ahead of PS1 sales even) and all of a sudden after PS5 launched (at double the price) PS4 will fall with the speed and the low sales of PS3 ? (or close to it) I don't get it.

So you are saying that PS4 from making 20M then 18M, then 14M, and this year maybe around 12M all of a sudden will drop to what ? 6-7M in 2021 and then 2 years with 2-3M and it will be done ? I can't see that happening.

PS3 was the only PS console with so bad legs and it was for 3 reasons.
1. PS3 in general didn't sell that well, just okay, PS4 for that matter is selling way way better.
2. Sony didn't do any price cuts after the PS4 launched.
and 3. PS4 was only 100$ more than PS3, therefore pretty much anyone including casual gamers would just take PS4.
Those 3 reasons are not and will not be present in the PS4/PS5 sales period

So because PS4 selling better in its life than PS3 you are adding only 2 to 4M more to it's death years ? only with this reason I can get them up to 15M in total sales after PS5, in comparison to 8M of the PS3.

Because of the pricecut that probably will happen (even if it is 50$, which didn't happen to PS3 in the PS4 launch year or after) I am adding additional of around 5M more (which will be result of the pricecut through all of it's remaining life).

And because of the big difference in price PS4 and PS5 will have (at least 200$ however very possible to be even 300$ or more if sony price cut the PS4, and may launch PS5 at 600$) I am giving another 10M more in PS4 lifetime sales.

So with all of these numbers we are getting to 140/150M sales range, and with a little luck, good bundles and marketing, and maybe one more pricecut PS4 may get above 150M

Your suggested price points of $99/$149 are completely unreasonable. Not only because the production costs will never get low enough to hit those prices, but also because there's no business sense in giving consoles away to very late adopters who won't spend much money on games and services.

Good to see that you refuted your own point about home consoles vs. handhelds, because it really doesn't make a difference.

The reason why the PS4 could closely match PS2 sales up to this point is that the PS4 took advantage of early launches worldwide as well as the positive economy in developing markets. Launch-aligned, the PS2 has yet to get to those sales, that's why we'll see the PS2 pulling clearly ahead of the PS4 in the long run. You have to remember that the PS4 is far behind the PS2 in the mature markets of the USA and Japan, so that's a huge deficit that not even the increased sales in developing markets can make up for.

Indeed, the PS4 will be done much quicker than the PS1 and PS2. The PS5 launch price and backwards compatibility are bound to make a lot of gamers sell their PS4s to stores to get a PS5 for cheaper, which in turn means that stores will focus on selling used PS4s instead of ordering new PS4s from Sony. The same thing has already cut into the legs of the PS3.

PS4 sales progression:

End of 2019: 106.0m LTD
End of 2020: ~117m LTD
End of 2021: ~123m LTD
End of 2022: ~126m LTD
Lifetime: ~128m

That's even on the optimistic side, because I don't expect Sony to have killer deals on Black Friday this year ($199 PS4 console with three bundled games) due to the PS5 launch and Sony wanting to push the new console. Likewise, next year will be all about the PS5.

The majority of Sony's gaming profits comes from PS+ subscriptions. Early adopters are much more likely to sign up than late adopters, that's why Sony will push the PS5 hard and not lose much thought on increasing the total number of PS4s sold. Sony has the full data on PS+ subscriptions and it's reasonably to assume that the later someone bought their PS4, the less likely they were to subscribe to PS+. That's why Sony has been hesitant to cut the PS4's price, even when it was already overdue.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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Bofferbrauer2 said:
yo33331 said:

Stop with those emerging markets, they weren't so big deal, they just helped PS2 with around 5M units more, and besides this, I lowered the number on the PS4 from the 50M that PS2 did to 30/35M that PS4 should do and can do with the right things happening. I think 15M between what PS4 should do and PS2 did is enough of a difference for your "emerging markets" thing.

As for the catching to the DS, we will see.. it's is doubtful and hard, yes, however not impossible imo.

PS2 sold 26M in RoW. No other consoles is even really close to that number, so yeah, they were a very big deal. And the PS2 got released there for the most part only after the release of the PS3 in the industrialized countries. Same with many eastern European countries, Middle East and northern Africa (which are all counted to Europe afaik). All in all that's probably about 40M consoles that were sold in countries where PS2 sales only opened up after the PS3 got released, not just 5% as you're claiming.

Claiming they were not a big deal is like saying that the PS4 won't sell over 115M, utterly ridiculous considering the data we have.

Those 26M of rest of the world include those middle east and northern africa countries that you mentioned, so no there can be 40M of the sales after 2006 only to "rest of the world" And those 26M are not all after 2006. Probably most like 15 or 20M at max. And even then PS2 still sold around 30M more after 2006 through out europe, us, and japan.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

I can see the PS4 getting to 150m, but all of the "stars" would have to line up for them.  Here are all the potential things that would have to go right for them.

1) They definitely have to cut the price, preferably to $199.

2) They have been growing the market in Central and Eastern Europe this generation which is why sales are still high in Europe compared to the rest of the world.  They can still get a few years worth of sales from this.

3) Third parties may find they can make a lot of money by doing a bunch of PS4/XB1/Switch simultaneous releases and they continue this for several more years, because Switch is in its prime.

4) Corona virus is still going to be around for at least another year.  This can end up both helping PS4 and hurting PS5.  People are more likely to want a cheap console if they have to stay at home during a recession, especially if they were on the fence about getting one to begin with.

5) We still have to see the full reveal for PS5 (and series X), but it is likely to have a slow start for a variety of factors.  The slow PS5 start is going to help PS4 sales.

Each of these factors can boost the life of PS4 by several million, and if they all kick in then 150m is not out of the question.

Yes, I can agree, only maybe without reason no 4, it's not recommended I mean.

And PS5 sales will most likely be slow at the beginning because of the 500$ or 600$ pricetag.



RolStoppable said:
yo33331 said:

Personally I don't think the thing with the emerging markets is so big of a deal.. it did around 10% of what PS2 sold after PS3 launched, so not much ..

However even if it is a true valid thing, as I wrote PS4 need around 30-35M after PS5 launch, not 50M like PS2, so I think this big difference cover the emerging markets thing ..

As for the pricecuts, yes you may have point there, however hard disks are old technology now.. even xbox 360 in 2013-2014 dropped to 199$ with a hard drive so 10 years later (2022/2023 for the 99/149$ pricecut) I think is preety reasonable time for this price with hard disk included to be possible. However if sony will do it and want to do it this is another topic ...

About the PS consoles, yes we have 5 PS consoles, however PSV is a failure, you cannot even put it here when we talk about a successful console like PS4. And besides, it is handheld, PSP is handheld too, so a little different type of console. But even that PSP percentage based sold not so bad after PSV launched in 2011. Somewhere around 10M, which to that point PSP was around 70M so this is more than 10% of the total console sales, even close to 15%, so not so bad. Better than PS3.

However still with that PSP and PS3 were OK selling consoles. PS4 is very good selling console, that's why it will sell more, and which other is successful console ? PS1 and PS2. They are much closer to PS4 than PS3 and PSP are. Why PS4 would sell all of it's life on PS2 levels (ahead of PS1 sales even) and all of a sudden after PS5 launched (at double the price) PS4 will fall with the speed and the low sales of PS3 ? (or close to it) I don't get it.

So you are saying that PS4 from making 20M then 18M, then 14M, and this year maybe around 12M all of a sudden will drop to what ? 6-7M in 2021 and then 2 years with 2-3M and it will be done ? I can't see that happening.

PS3 was the only PS console with so bad legs and it was for 3 reasons.
1. PS3 in general didn't sell that well, just okay, PS4 for that matter is selling way way better.
2. Sony didn't do any price cuts after the PS4 launched.
and 3. PS4 was only 100$ more than PS3, therefore pretty much anyone including casual gamers would just take PS4.
Those 3 reasons are not and will not be present in the PS4/PS5 sales period

So because PS4 selling better in its life than PS3 you are adding only 2 to 4M more to it's death years ? only with this reason I can get them up to 15M in total sales after PS5, in comparison to 8M of the PS3.

Because of the pricecut that probably will happen (even if it is 50$, which didn't happen to PS3 in the PS4 launch year or after) I am adding additional of around 5M more (which will be result of the pricecut through all of it's remaining life).

And because of the big difference in price PS4 and PS5 will have (at least 200$ however very possible to be even 300$ or more if sony price cut the PS4, and may launch PS5 at 600$) I am giving another 10M more in PS4 lifetime sales.

So with all of these numbers we are getting to 140/150M sales range, and with a little luck, good bundles and marketing, and maybe one more pricecut PS4 may get above 150M

Your suggested price points of $99/$149 are completely unreasonable. Not only because the production costs will never get low enough to hit those prices, but also because there's no business sense in giving consoles away to very late adopters who won't spend much money on games and services.

Good to see that you refuted your own point about home consoles vs. handhelds, because it really doesn't make a difference.

The reason why the PS4 could closely match PS2 sales up to this point is that the PS4 took advantage of early launches worldwide as well as the positive economy in developing markets. Launch-aligned, the PS2 has yet to get to those sales, that's why we'll see the PS2 pulling clearly ahead of the PS4 in the long run. You have to remember that the PS4 is far behind the PS2 in the mature markets of the USA and Japan, so that's a huge deficit that not even the increased sales in developing markets can make up for.

Indeed, the PS4 will be done much quicker than the PS1 and PS2. The PS5 launch price and backwards compatibility are bound to make a lot of gamers sell their PS4s to stores to get a PS5 for cheaper, which in turn means that stores will focus on selling used PS4s instead of ordering new PS4s from Sony. The same thing has already cut into the legs of the PS3.

PS4 sales progression:

End of 2019: 106.0m LTD
End of 2020: ~117m LTD
End of 2021: ~123m LTD
End of 2022: ~126m LTD
Lifetime: ~128m

That's even on the optimistic side, because I don't expect Sony to have killer deals on Black Friday this year ($199 PS4 console with three bundled games) due to the PS5 launch and Sony wanting to push the new console. Likewise, next year will be all about the PS5.

The majority of Sony's gaming profits comes from PS+ subscriptions. Early adopters are much more likely to sign up than late adopters, that's why Sony will push the PS5 hard and not lose much thought on increasing the total number of PS4s sold. Sony has the full data on PS+ subscriptions and it's reasonably to assume that the later someone bought their PS4, the less likely they were to subscribe to PS+. That's why Sony has been hesitant to cut the PS4's price, even when it was already overdue.

PS5 will be 500 or 600$, PS4 at the same time will be 249$ (holidays) or 299$. There will be some people selling their PS4s yes, but that will be mostly hardcore gamers, and even not all of them. Also at this price difference the casual gamers, families, or kids with their mothers will get PS4s.

The primary thing that cut the PS3 legs was the price difference between it and PS4, only 100$. Of course that everyone would get the new console for only 100$ more. Here we will have at least 200$ at best and maybe 300 or 350$ (if PS4 get price cut) difference at worst. This is huge.

As for the PS+ no, there were many PS3 users too after PS4 launched, even with the PS3 online being free. And sony showed it - they were giving free games up until last year for that console for PS+ subscribers. Also there is still people playing online on their PS3s to this day. As PS4 have sold more units, there will be more users playing online on it after PS5 launch, then there were PS3 users playing online after PS4.

And no your sales projections are so no optimistic .. they are preety much the worst it can be .. without price cuts, and 3rd party support just dies with this year, and no marketing from sony anymore for PS4.

So even without price cuts i see it like this

PS4 sales progression:

End of 2020: ~118m LTD
End of 2021: ~126/128m LTD
End of 2022: ~132/134m LTD
Lifetime: ~138/140m with at least 2 more years left after 2022.

If they do pricecut or 2 it may reach 150M or somewhere around it.



yo33331 said:

PS5 will be 500 or 600$, PS4 at the same time will be 249$ (holidays) or 299$. There will be some people selling their PS4s yes, but that will be mostly hardcore gamers, and even not all of them. Also at this price difference the casual gamers, families, or kids with their mothers will get PS4s.

The primary thing that cut the PS3 legs was the price difference between it and PS4, only 100$. Of course that everyone would get the new console for only 100$ more. Here we will have at least 200$ at best and maybe 300 or 350$ (if PS4 get price cut) difference at worst. This is huge.

As for the PS+ no, there were many PS3 users too after PS4 launched, even with the PS3 online being free. And sony showed it - they were giving free games up until last year for that console for PS+ subscribers. Also there is still people playing online on their PS3s to this day. As PS4 have sold more units, there will be more users playing online on it after PS5 launch, then there were PS3 users playing online after PS4.

And no your sales projections are so no optimistic .. they are preety much the worst it can be .. without price cuts, and 3rd party support just dies with this year, and no marketing from sony anymore for PS4.

So even without price cuts i see it like this

PS4 sales progression:

End of 2020: ~118m LTD
End of 2021: ~126/128m LTD
End of 2022: ~132/134m LTD
Lifetime: ~138/140m with at least 2 more years left after 2022.

If they do pricecut or 2 it may reach 150M or somewhere around it.

Your sales progression without price cuts doesn't make sense from 2021 onwards. 2019 dropped to 14m from 18m in 2018, so it was visible that the PS4 was getting ever closer to its saturation point at an MSRP of $299. If the price remained the same, the drops were bound to get more pronounced with each passing year. The reason why I still granted the PS4 11m in 2020 is because of the temporary boost from the corona restrictions. 2021 will be without any noteworthy PS4-exclusive games because Sony will have moved on to make PS5 games. Interest in the PS4 will drop quickly without new big titles while remaining at the same old price, so you won't see 8-10m in 2021, followed by 6m in 2022.

One additional reason for the shorter PS3 legs that hasn't been mentioned yet is the longer timeframe it had as Sony's main console. It had seven years to itself, unlike the PS1 (five years, can vary by region) and the PS2 (six years, can vary by region). The PS4 is getting seven years to itself, just like the PS3. This means that by their time of replacement, the PS3 and PS4 were closer to their respective saturation points than the PS1 and PS2 were, regardless of the region we are looking at. Consequently, that's resulting in shorter legs.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
yo33331 said:

PS5 will be 500 or 600$, PS4 at the same time will be 249$ (holidays) or 299$. There will be some people selling their PS4s yes, but that will be mostly hardcore gamers, and even not all of them. Also at this price difference the casual gamers, families, or kids with their mothers will get PS4s.

The primary thing that cut the PS3 legs was the price difference between it and PS4, only 100$. Of course that everyone would get the new console for only 100$ more. Here we will have at least 200$ at best and maybe 300 or 350$ (if PS4 get price cut) difference at worst. This is huge.

As for the PS+ no, there were many PS3 users too after PS4 launched, even with the PS3 online being free. And sony showed it - they were giving free games up until last year for that console for PS+ subscribers. Also there is still people playing online on their PS3s to this day. As PS4 have sold more units, there will be more users playing online on it after PS5 launch, then there were PS3 users playing online after PS4.

And no your sales projections are so no optimistic .. they are preety much the worst it can be .. without price cuts, and 3rd party support just dies with this year, and no marketing from sony anymore for PS4.

So even without price cuts i see it like this

PS4 sales progression:

End of 2020: ~118m LTD
End of 2021: ~126/128m LTD
End of 2022: ~132/134m LTD
Lifetime: ~138/140m with at least 2 more years left after 2022.

If they do pricecut or 2 it may reach 150M or somewhere around it.

Your sales progression without price cuts doesn't make sense from 2021 onwards. 2019 dropped to 14m from 18m in 2018, so it was visible that the PS4 was getting ever closer to its saturation point at an MSRP of $299. If the price remained the same, the drops were bound to get more pronounced with each passing year. The reason why I still granted the PS4 11m in 2020 is because of the temporary boost from the corona restrictions. 2021 will be without any noteworthy PS4-exclusive games because Sony will have moved on to make PS5 games. Interest in the PS4 will drop quickly without new big titles while remaining at the same old price, so you won't see 8-10m in 2021, followed by 6m in 2022.

One additional reason for the shorter PS3 legs that hasn't been mentioned yet is the longer timeframe it had as Sony's main console. It had seven years to itself, unlike the PS1 (five years, can vary by region) and the PS2 (six years, can vary by region). The PS4 is getting seven years to itself, just like the PS3. This means that by their time of replacement, the PS3 and PS4 were closer to their respective saturation points than the PS1 and PS2 were, regardless of the region we are looking at. Consequently, that's resulting in shorter legs.

That's why I am giving PS4 around 20M more not 40 or 50M more sales like PS2.

With this year PS4 finishing around 12M I don't see 2021 to be less than 8M for the system, and 2022 seem reasonable for 5-6M range.

However I really think that Sony will do at least 1 more 50$ pricecut.

Also there is another thing that no one hasn't mentioned yet.

With the tight production because of the coronavirus there is many rumors around the net of delaying the next gen consoles to next year, despite sony and microsoft still confirming it. And they may launch this year yes, however there is some chance of delaying the consoles if they don't meet the production requirements for the launch as number of units. If that happens it will give some boost to PS4 for the year and the holiday season, and even maybe the first months of the next year.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 26 May 2020