Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo quarterly results May 7th 2020 - Switch: 55.77m, (21m for the FY) Animal Crossing: 11.77m

Nuvendil said:
newwil7l said:
A traditional Paper Mario coupled with 3D Mario remasters would be more than enough to keep Switch up YOY especially since it is coming in to this holiday season with so much more momentum than last year thanks to Animal Crossing.

I wouldn't necessarily bet on the momentum carrying that far.  Not yet, though it might.  More helpful will be the YOY advantage it will pick up in FY Q1, which should cushion a possible drop in late Q2 and Q3.  

Nintendo does have two big strategies they've only dabbled in:  big bundles and a price cut.  I could see Nintendo pondering those if they feel like the COVID-19 disruptions are going to cause too many issues in their schedule for late 2020 and early 2021.  

The Holiday for Switch last year was absurd though, it would take some BIG guns to top that.  You don't get a 2 million December on "momentum" alone.

We also have to ask though, if Nintendo are already projecting to be down YOY, will they be willing to cut into profits just to say they beat last years hardware units? I think its more valuable for people putting bets on this forum, then it is for Nintendo. Price cuts will come when they're needed, a 19m year, down from 21m doesn't seem like that kinda situation imo



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Otter said:
Nuvendil said:

I wouldn't necessarily bet on the momentum carrying that far.  Not yet, though it might.  More helpful will be the YOY advantage it will pick up in FY Q1, which should cushion a possible drop in late Q2 and Q3.  

Nintendo does have two big strategies they've only dabbled in:  big bundles and a price cut.  I could see Nintendo pondering those if they feel like the COVID-19 disruptions are going to cause too many issues in their schedule for late 2020 and early 2021.  

The Holiday for Switch last year was absurd though, it would take some BIG guns to top that.  You don't get a 2 million December on "momentum" alone.

We also have to ask though, if Nintendo are already projecting to be down YOY, will they be willing to cut into profits just to say they beat last years hardware units? I think its more valuable for people putting bets on this forum, then it is for Nintendo. Price cuts will come when they're needed, a 19m year, down from 21m doesn't seem like that kinda situation imo

Agreed.  But I was referring to a scenario where it was looking worse than they expected, so perhaps a sub 19 mil projection.  Unlikely as it may seem now with the Switch riding such extreme momentum, a lot can change in six months.  Still, agree it is unlikely.



curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

20mil shipped for the FY20.... the advantage here for This FY compared to the last 2 FY is that Nintendo needs to have ship and stuff the channels. Let’s take a look at what we know of sell thru vs shipped to paint a better picture here

-Nintendo had 52.5mil shipped by end of 2019. Sell thru was over 48mil. After W1 huge global sales I’m guessing roughly 3.8mil-4.0mil were on store shelves. (Let’s say 3mil for a nice number)

-Q4 shipped 3.3mil right? Well sell thru was way higher than this meaning a lot of the extra units hanging around the stores got sold out. This is what FY20 has to deal with. Not only is Q1 selling what they ship, they need to have a healthy amount of consoles in retail stores.

-Q1 like I said has AC driving it with XC and some third party end of May. The problem won’t be fully solved this quarter which already should be way ahead of previous avg for NSW shipments

-Q2 should start fixing the problem if everything goes right and this is the quarter if not especially the next to fill up as much as possible to retailers (*note doesn’t have to be sell thru as stores will need stock again especially Japan)

-Q3 where I believe most shipments will finally be up from shortages as well as good software (can be a 1-2combo of Mario collection/Paper Mario/etc). even if down this quarter the other 2 quarters should make up for it imo

-Evergreens are literally keeping this system afloat, AC as everybody has seen and even the sleeper hit RFA will still provide healthy sales despite no new software intill at least end of summer imo

Paper Mario, evergreens, and remasters of old games aren't enough, not compared to mainline Pokemon + hardware revision in 2019. 

For a 21 millions plus year, you need multiple big system sellers throughout.

You keep saying “big games” but ignore one of my main points. Your argument is Pokémon/new revision. Your right as that helped out Q2/Q3 with AC in Q4. Making that 21mil.

For me aiming near 20mil or above it this FY is possible despite the guessing of software (mid and small releases). 2 main factors I’m saying including another guess for a boost will keep Nintendo forecast of 19mil or even more a reality.

pls don’t push this to the side...

-This is the highest momentum we have seen for the NSW. This is in its 4th year,no price cut (lite isn’t a price cut), shortages tgg FF at result in lotteries (japan) intill at least end of June).

-Q1 will be whatever they ship will sell with no way of stuffing the channels. This means Nintendo still needs to ship a certain number that puts extra units on store shelves. Will happen Q2/Q3 possibly, meaning shipments will be higher than normal despite software not being as big.

-These alone will boost NSW shipments due to the fact it’s in dire need of stock not seen in any console life in its 4th year.

-while doing this paper Mario, dlc Pokémon and smash, an unannounced small-mid tier game or 2, as well as 2 Mario 3D games (which your underestimating as big). Hell I argue SM3DWD is the perfect port (I’m guessing Aug release) is the perfect game like AC to be stuck playing at home but with family

-Bonus: unlike joycon colors, NSW lite having new colors mean more hardware shipments (I can see 2 new colors this FY). On top of being in its 4th year for holidays I can see this year being a focus on bundles especially for nsmbud and Mario kart 8D (splatoon2 in japan)



tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Paper Mario, evergreens, and remasters of old games aren't enough, not compared to mainline Pokemon + hardware revision in 2019. 

For a 21 millions plus year, you need multiple big system sellers throughout.

You keep saying “big games” but ignore one of my main points. Your argument is Pokémon/new revision. Your right as that helped out Q2/Q3 with AC in Q4. Making that 21mil.

For me aiming near 20mil or above it this FY is possible despite the guessing of software (mid and small releases). 2 main factors I’m saying including another guess for a boost will keep Nintendo forecast of 19mil or even more a reality.

pls don’t push this to the side...

-This is the highest momentum we have seen for the NSW. This is in its 4th year,no price cut (lite isn’t a price cut), shortages tgg FF at result in lotteries (japan) intill at least end of June).

-Q1 will be whatever they ship will sell with no way of stuffing the channels. This means Nintendo still needs to ship a certain number that puts extra units on store shelves. Will happen Q2/Q3 possibly, meaning shipments will be higher than normal despite software not being as big.

-These alone will boost NSW shipments due to the fact it’s in dire need of stock not seen in any console life in its 4th year.

-while doing this paper Mario, dlc Pokémon and smash, an unannounced small-mid tier game or 2, as well as 2 Mario 3D games (which your underestimating as big). Hell I argue SM3DWD is the perfect port (I’m guessing Aug release) is the perfect game like AC to be stuck playing at home but with family

-Bonus: unlike joycon colors, NSW lite having new colors mean more hardware shipments (I can see 2 new colors this FY). On top of being in its 4th year for holidays I can see this year being a focus on bundles especially for nsmbud and Mario kart 8D (splatoon2 in japan)

Switch's current momentum will disappear if there aren't further big releases to sustain it. It may be in high demand now and in the short term future but that will change quickly if they can't continue to offer major software. Old remasters, B-list titles, and DLC won't cut the mustard.



curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

You keep saying “big games” but ignore one of my main points. Your argument is Pokémon/new revision. Your right as that helped out Q2/Q3 with AC in Q4. Making that 21mil.

For me aiming near 20mil or above it this FY is possible despite the guessing of software (mid and small releases). 2 main factors I’m saying including another guess for a boost will keep Nintendo forecast of 19mil or even more a reality.

pls don’t push this to the side...

-This is the highest momentum we have seen for the NSW. This is in its 4th year,no price cut (lite isn’t a price cut), shortages tgg FF at result in lotteries (japan) intill at least end of June).

-Q1 will be whatever they ship will sell with no way of stuffing the channels. This means Nintendo still needs to ship a certain number that puts extra units on store shelves. Will happen Q2/Q3 possibly, meaning shipments will be higher than normal despite software not being as big.

-These alone will boost NSW shipments due to the fact it’s in dire need of stock not seen in any console life in its 4th year.

-while doing this paper Mario, dlc Pokémon and smash, an unannounced small-mid tier game or 2, as well as 2 Mario 3D games (which your underestimating as big). Hell I argue SM3DWD is the perfect port (I’m guessing Aug release) is the perfect game like AC to be stuck playing at home but with family

-Bonus: unlike joycon colors, NSW lite having new colors mean more hardware shipments (I can see 2 new colors this FY). On top of being in its 4th year for holidays I can see this year being a focus on bundles especially for nsmbud and Mario kart 8D (splatoon2 in japan)

Switch's current momentum will disappear if there aren't further big releases to sustain it. It may be in high demand now and in the short term future but that will change quickly if they can't continue to offer major software. Old remasters, B-list titles, and DLC won't cut the mustard.

Guess we will have to agree to disagree regarding software .We will see anyway in every quarter who is right. That said I wanted to point out 1more thing.

20mil this FY doesn’t have to mean sell thru anywhere close to 20mil. Last FY shipment was 21mil but sell thru was higher (judging by Q4 sellouts and store shelves having 3-4mil on store shelves end of 2019. 

i would argue sell thru can be 17mil and lead to 20mil or higher. 

Q1 looking strong already, NSW selling good in Europe, US for a slow month like April is looking to break records. Japan game before GW sold 315k heavy supply issues, last year was 182k same time without any and they didn’t have to ship as much.

Q1 japan 2019 sell thru was 510k, if GW this year has a combine sell thru if let’s say 300k, that would already be ahead of it by a good margin without including rest of May and June. And remember in japan it’s whatever they ship they sell and lotteries will be going on intill at least end of june

from Chris on gaf 

Participations for next lottery of Switch and Ring Fit Adventure at GEO are from 18 to 22 May.

Until 30 June, GEO will sell Switch and Ring Fit Adventure only to lottery winners through GEO Application and will not sell them at stores or GEO Online Store.



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curl-6 said:

Switch's current momentum will disappear if there aren't further big releases to sustain it. It may be in high demand now and in the short term future but that will change quickly if they can't continue to offer major software. Old remasters, B-list titles, and DLC won't cut the mustard.

Don't you get tired of repeating the same thing over and over again? I'll explain what you can look forward to:

Fiscal Q1 - Last year Switch set a new record for this period with 2.13m shipped (yes, Switch kicked off a 21m fiscal year with a meager 2m). Since this year Animal Crossing's boost spills over into this quarter, last year's value will be comfortably exceeded. There's no doubt about that, so a cushion is a given.

Fiscal Q2 - Last year had the launch of the Lite which resulted in shipments of 4.80m. This year won't match that, but the cushion from fiscal Q1 should be big enough to let Switch be essentially flat for the first half of the fiscal year.

Fiscal Q3 - Due to the corona crisis, Nintendo will have a conditional strategy here. If things go according to plan A, then Nintendo's big holiday title will release; Nintendo always has a big holiday title for Switch, so don't bother pretending that they have nothing planned for this year except remasters and B-list titles. In case that it will be unavoidable to delay the big game until next year (which will be clear by the end of summer), Nintendo will simply opt for a more aggressive execution of value-added bundles during the holiday quarter. Both Switch and Switch Lite at the same price as they are now, but including a top tier Nintendo game at no additional cost for most of the holiday quarter. This will allow Nintendo to stay on track to at least meet their forecast of 19m for the fiscal year while at the same time not making any big concessions to their profit numbers. They'll ship 9m minimum with either strategic option.

Fiscal Q4 - If Nintendo's big holiday title released on time, its boost will spill over into fiscal Q4 to make Switch ship ~3m. If the holiday game didn't release on time, it will be released during this quarter, also resulting in Switch shipments of at least 3m.

You should really do the maths for yourself and see what you get with your own estimates. That's better than getting lost in the assumption that Nintendo won't have a single big game release during this fiscal year.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Harvest moon announced, bammm let the software come out!!!



tbone51 said:
Harvest moon announced, bammm let the software come out!!!

Switch is set for the rest of the year. People love games with animals.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch's current momentum will disappear if there aren't further big releases to sustain it. It may be in high demand now and in the short term future but that will change quickly if they can't continue to offer major software. Old remasters, B-list titles, and DLC won't cut the mustard.

Guess we will have to agree to disagree regarding software .We will see anyway in every quarter who is right. That said I wanted to point out 1more thing.

20mil this FY doesn’t have to mean sell thru anywhere close to 20mil. Last FY shipment was 21mil but sell thru was higher (judging by Q4 sellouts and store shelves having 3-4mil on store shelves end of 2019. 

i would argue sell thru can be 17mil and lead to 20mil or higher. 

Q1 looking strong already, NSW selling good in Europe, US for a slow month like April is looking to break records. Japan game before GW sold 315k heavy supply issues, last year was 182k same time without any and they didn’t have to ship as much.

Q1 japan 2019 sell thru was 510k, if GW this year has a combine sell thru if let’s say 300k, that would already be ahead of it by a good margin without including rest of May and June. And remember in japan it’s whatever they ship they sell and lotteries will be going on intill at least end of june

from Chris on gaf 

Participations for next lottery of Switch and Ring Fit Adventure at GEO are from 18 to 22 May.

Until 30 June, GEO will sell Switch and Ring Fit Adventure only to lottery winners through GEO Application and will not sell them at stores or GEO Online Store.

Well, I am saying IF they don't have a strong second lineup, not that they definitely won't.

For all we know at the moment they could have an excellent July-Dec lined up, it's just a mystery right now, and with the world gone crazy I'm just inclined to be cautious.



Paper Mario July 17 release. 1st game of 2nd half of year announced and coming in two months.

Nintendo is fine if they are releasing that game early. I’m confident in what they are releasing sept and onward