The Last of Us is too big for the quality of the game or it's messages to keep it's minimum sales below exceptional. The only question is whether those sales will be deserved or not.
You want to put messages in the entertainment you're making? By all means go for it but make it original and make sure entertainment is still the priority. Stop hijacking big prexisting franchises and only using them as a platform for your message.
I also think TLOU2 will be a huge success hit, will easily sell 10 million copies. It doesn't matter what they do, it will be huge. Its like The Rise of Skywalker, it doesnt matter how bad it was, it was definitely be a big hit with.
I also agree with what you say about hijacking franchises. This happen because if they try to build something to fit their agenda since the beginning, there is a chance it won't really succeed, so it's easier to do it with something already established.
For example if the next uncharted game has Drake's daughter as protagonist, Drake left Elaine as he found himself to be homossexual and now is trying to fight for the socialist revolution in africa, and the plot revolves around joining forces with an antifa group to overthrown the conservative president which is allied with the local church, it would still sell gazillions as this is uncharted and has all those characters we love.
But if you try to start something with such amount of messages people would probably not buy the game. Therefore, you need to rely on changing what is existing. And it sucks.