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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bolder Prediction: [So Far 8.18mil] Animal Crossing New Horizons will be 12mil in Japan Lifetime

 

It will sell (ship+digital)

Under 7mil 5 10.87%
 
Around 7.5mil 5 10.87%
 
8mil 3 6.52%
 
8.5mil 4 8.70%
 
9mil 3 6.52%
 
9.5mil 3 6.52%
 
10mil 3 6.52%
 
10.5mil 2 4.35%
 
11mil 2 4.35%
 
12mil 16 34.78%
 
Total:46
tbone51 on 26 April 2020
Mar1217 said:
Plz make one of your crazy predictions for Xenoblade so we can enjoy another successful entry !!

Lmao, Xenoblade Chronicles 3 to sell 5mil :P



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tbone51 on 26 April 2020
IcaroRibeiro said:
@tbone51 please make a 10 million bold prediction for metroid 4 prime ;D

I would love too, that be a bigger story than BotW doing 20mil imo. As for your other post, it’s on course to do 6mil ship+digital by end of June ;P



tbone51 on 26 April 2020
Metallox said:
You want roughly 1 out of every Japanese to have a copy of the game. That's nuts.

Naw, lifetime not this year xD. NSW should be around 17mil by years end and I put AC roughly above 8mil by that time 



tbone51 on 26 April 2020
sethnintendo said:
Finally a bold prediction. If someone says too bold then you know you are doing something right or wrong. I'm proud of you.

Yes that’s why I made a second one cuz my first one (I actually had it at 7.5mil and then bumped it to 8mil) felt like I was cheating lmao

UnderwaterFunktown said:
Considering its probably closing in on 5 mil already if you include digital, it's certainly not impossible.
But it's the attachment rate that gets me skeptical. 40-45 % is significantly more than even any of the Pokémon games, which have always been the definition of system sellers in Japan.
If the Switch itself somehow catches up to the DS, it could maybe happen, but while it is ofc dangerous to doubt your predictions I'll go with a slightly safer 10,5 mil.

I think NSW will sell no less that. 27mil but no more than 33mil. AC could possibly be over 8mil and if it is close to 9mil then this prediction has a chance. If it’s under 8mil I’ll admit defeat



sethnintendo on 26 April 2020

Do we have any idea what the digital sales are or do we have to wait till next quarter report.  I know one site said 5 million but then people trashed the site.



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tbone51 on 26 April 2020
sethnintendo said:

Do we have any idea what the digital sales are or do we have to wait till next quarter report.  I know one site said 5 million but then people trashed the site.

Not yet, we will get an idea May 7th



tbone51 on 26 April 2020

RolStoppable said:
10m would be bold enough already, beating the previous record by ~2m. 12m is pretty bonkers.

-Correct but I rather predict more near impossible bets. Like you said 10mil is bold enough... but not for me!!!


The game is certainly selling at a staggering pace, but the question of the saturation point is an important one. Pokémon was a phenomenon back in the day and ultimately had its legs cut short with the altered releases of Blue and especially Yellow, so 10m for a game in Japan is within the realms of possibility. But 12m? That's certainly more tbone-ish than a few other of your predictions lately, so I'll give it to you that you've been getting back in the groove.

-Lmao yes true, that’s why I rather go even more crazier than before. Felt as though it’s been on the safer side lately.


So...


Best-selling game of all time in Japan: Yes.
10m lifetime: Maybe. I am 50/50 on that one because the first several weeks had amazing sales.
12m lifetime: Nope.

-that’s the spirit!!! 



sethnintendo on 26 April 2020

T-bonish. That cracked me up. Should be trademark



brute on 26 April 2020

Everyone is saying that Pokemon RB is the top selling in Japan but are we certain that all Minecraft versions combined haven't passed it?



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

tbone51 on 26 April 2020
brute said:
Everyone is saying that Pokemon RB is the top selling in Japan but are we certain that all Minecraft versions combined haven't passed it?

Off the top of my head

ps4 1mil+
NSW 2mil+
vita 1.5mil+
3ds 1mil+

5.5mil minimum. So you might be right but it’s also unfair bit.  It could be potentially over 8mil right now.