Rise with the head start!

Rise is gonna smash World in Japan; a big part of MH's appeal there is portability, and Switch is just a much more popular system.

That 1.35m figure is for World's opening week, right?

Yeah, that's what Game Data Library shows for retail opening week sales.

Alrighty, well if World can pull in that much, I reckon Rise should be able to pull 2 million plus in its opening.

It definitely has the chance to be able to. That'd put it only behind Portable 3rd in terms of 1st week retail opening for a MonHun game.

That said, it's a bit surprising to me how muted Rise has been thus far. Like, I know Amazon isn't the end-all-be-all of predictor, but it says something that no SKU of Rise is in the Amazon JP top 50 for video games right now. The highest SKU is #60. 

Rise is going to sell a ton of copies of course, and it definitely could open up with 2 million (MH4 was just below that after all) but it's a bit surprising that it's not looking stronger at this point.  I wonder if the higher price point than what portable MonHun fans are used to is keeping them away? 8k yen is asking a lot.

Capcom have been a bit coy with it so far, only the one area and a couple of monsters have been shown as yet. More trailers and advertising should kick in as it gets closer to release.

COMG! Japan Pre-Order Chart November 26, 2020

Someone switched to the double pack.

More probable is cancelled due to lack of supplies. Happened all the time at COMGet with big releases.

But not over 100 days from release, where they don't even know how many they'll receive. Those cancellations always happened in the last week before release. And considering the numbers MHW got, having the next mainline title in the series only getting about 1/10th of the previous title's allocation would be ludicrous.