So then what big 3rd party IP are you basing your thoughts on? Or do you just expect Momotaro to sell like the Nintendo published heavily bundled Super Mario Party because.... it's a party game?

I mean, if they were selling a bundle for 10k yen where you could buy a joycon set and Momotaro like they did with SMP then sure, I'd see your confidence. A joycon set it 8k yen, so you're looking at only 2k yen for Momotaro. A lot of people would buy that. But Konami is selling Momotaro for 6-7k yen. It's not going to be anything like Super Mario Party.

Beware of the thinking that "if it hasn't been done before, it cannot be done". This logic has been disproven many times on Switch.

In terms of 3rd party software, can you provide an example?

That's exactly what I'm saying, there doesn't necessarily need to be an example.

Unprecedented things can happen.

Right, unprecedented things can happen. Anything is possible.

Neptunia on PS5 could sell a million copies in Japan despite no Neptunia game ever selling even 100,000. Final Fantasy 16 could sell less than 100,000 copies in Japan. Monster Hunter Rise could sell 10 million copies in Japan or could sell less than a million copies in Japan. 

All of those are possible but all of them have no rational argument as to why it would be the case. What, exactly, is the point of commenting on something that has no foundational reason, logic, or sentiment behind it? It's a pointless waste of space is it not? Is not the point of these sales and metric-tracking threads to provide rational arguments based on already established trends and data?  

No precedent does not imply no logic or reason. There are logical reasons why unprecedented things happen.

I can't speak to this particular case as this is not my area, but "it hasn't happened before" isn't a sound argument that something won't or can't happen.

I don't really see your point, there is no family friendly game from a 3rd Party on the Switch that has launched with >300K sales. 

As commented previously the highest launch for a third party has been DQXI, which launched with 300K sales and has doubled this total since launching despite being a JRPG. 

In terms of sales pattern there is already a precedent you are overlooking - Minecraft, it launched with only 66K sales and is currently at 1.5M.

• Minecraft Launch - 66.050
• Minecraft 2018 - 525.045
• Minecraft 2019 - 620.903
• Minecraft 2020 - 413.448*

I chose Super Mario Party because of it's price, launch date, genre and lack of additional content, just because it's a Nintendo game doesn't mean we cannot compare it to 3rd Party games like Momotaro. Minecraft would be a bad comparison because it's much cheaper than both and receives constant updates. This is why I said we should look at Super Mario Party's sales and compare the two games. 

• Same Price
• Launched in October
• Same Genre
• Didn't get additional updates to drive sales

There is plenty of rational reasons to expect Momotaro to become the first million selling Japanese 3rd Party on the Switch and to do so fairly quickly. But I feel we are going in circles, the first very rational reasons is that the Switch will be over 17 million user base by the end of the year and the +1 million new owners buying it this holiday will be purchasing additional Software.

Below are Minecraft and Fishing Spirits sales last year during the holiday, 

Week 50:

• Minecraft # (Microsoft) (¥3.600) - 25.036
• Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai) (¥5.700) - 20.932

Week 51:

• Minecraft # (Microsoft) (¥3.600) - 41.907 
• Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai) (¥5.700) - 38.527

Week 52:

• Minecraft # (Microsoft) (¥3.600) - 40.905 
• Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai) (¥5.700) - 33.623

Week 1: 

• Minecraft # (Microsoft) (¥3.600) - 46.963 
• Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai) (¥5.700) - 30.705

Minecraft TOTAL: 154.811 (25% of Annual Sales)

Fishing Spirits TOTAL: 123.787 (37% of Annual Sales)

Now Momotaro would blow that out of the water this holiday, so lets look at Super Mario Party's launch holiday

• Super Mario Party - 97.529
• Super Mario Party - 155.060
• Super Mario Party - 98.682
• Super Mario Party - 95.102

Super Mario Party TOTAL: 446.373 (58% of Annual Sales)

Lets say Momotaro doesn't achieve the same numbers, instead it has an average of 70K compared to Super Mario Party's 111K average. Thats still 280K physical and would bring total shipped numbers to over 800K for the year, add a conservative 10% digital and we are very close to 1M shipped + digital. The initial shipment of 500K will be sold before Week 50 BTW, I can guarantee that without needing a precedent. 

Quick update Momotaro is already confirmed to have exceeded 500K shipped+digital by Konami, I guess after the unprecedented WW success of AoC we are in for another unprecedented performance  

Momotaro has officially exceeded half a million shipped + digital during its launch week.
Congratulations on the successful launch Konami#桃太郎電鉄500K #桃太郎電鉄～昭和平成令和も定番 #Momotaro https://t.co/DWq5c66Dhp

— Nocturnal (@Noshten) November 24, 2020

Rise with the head start!

Rise is gonna smash World in Japan; a big part of MH's appeal there is portability, and Switch is just a much more popular system.

That 1.35m figure is for World's opening week, right?

Yeah, that's what Game Data Library shows for retail opening week sales.