Unless the ratio is incredibly off, Atelier Sophie 2 is looking rather good. The first game had first week sales of 65k split between the Vita/PS3/PS4 releases. Sophie 2 should exceed that. On the other hand, GT7's situation really needs to improve if it's going to beat the already lackluster (for the series) opening that GT Sport had.

Stranger of Paradise - Final Fantasy Origin appears.

Hope it gains a couple of points until the release.

Only 38 points for GT7 (both versions combined) and it just has 14 days left...

This series used to be so big in Japan.

A wild CHAOS appears.

ER has now has 166 points with 7 days left. Can it reach 180? Find out the answer to that and more on the action packed episode of COMG! Z!

SoP has finally appeared as expected.

during the next 2 weeks there will be a loooooot of new games appearing.
I dont think it will happen, because PS5 is too weak, but at least in theory in 2 weeks there could be no PS4 game left. But i guess there still will be some random smaller PS4 games appearing.

Good to see PS5 version of Elden Ring get some more orders during the final week.
Looks like it’s going to be easily the biggest launch week of any PS5 game in Japan.

I believe Tales of Arise on PS5 sold just over 50,000 first week at retail, and Resident Evil Village sold a bit under 80,000 lifetime.

Elden Ring on PS5 seems capable of selling over 75,000 during its first week and becoming the PS5’s first big hit at Japanese retail.

This year PS4/PS5 have far more games scheduled for the first few months compared to last year when in Q1 the Top 5 combined sold less than what Elden Ring is likely to achieve on the PS5 this quarter.

Top 5 PS4/PS5 Q1 2021 (Unofficial Ranking)

1. [PS4] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 24.968
2. [PS4] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 18.289
3. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (Sony) - 16.454
4. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 16.352
5. [PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 16.235

Elden Ring on the PS4 could be the final game to have a launch larger than 150K, while as you mention its also the first PS5 title to surpass 75K at launch and 100K overall. Last year the first major title was Resident Evil: Village in April, followed by Tales or Arise, Lost Judgement & Demon Slayer in the September-November period. 

This year beyond we also have Forbidden West which will be an interesting case as the original launched with 100K but ended up surpassing 250K, if it follows the trajectory of other Western AAA games we should be expecting launch & lifetime sales to drop by around 40-60% so 40-60K opening and 150-190K lifetime sales. It just came out but the PS5 version is already dropping quickly on Amazon.co.jp(#15 below Smash Ultimate). 

Following that we have Atelier Sophie 2 the first major multiplat of the year, so far on COMG & Amazon.co.jp the PS4 version is well ahead of the Switch - so a larger launch will still be maintained by the PS ecosystem but Switch version is likely to catch-up by outlegging it. 40-60K lifetime for this title is looking possible on the PS4. Atelier Ryza 2 managed 51K on the PS4 in 2020. 

Gran Turismo 7, GhostWire: Tokyo & Relayer don't look like they will do very strongly but its still a bit of time for pre-orders to pickup at the moment, its difficult to envision GT surpasses 100K on a single SKU, while GhostWire: Tokyo is an interesting case Microsoft isn't exactly promoting this game so pre-orders have been non-existent to say the least, the game is coming out end of March currently sitting outside the Top 200 on Amazon.co.jp; so it might not even crack 25K. Wrapping things up we have Relayer the PS4/PS5 version are outside the Top 1800 on Amazon.co.jp

For Square not sure what they are thinking launching so many games so close together Babylon's Fall, Forspoken & Stranger of Paradise, SoP the ceiling might be 50K. BF is heading for bomba. Once these games release we have Forspoken which is looking like it won't cause too much waves in Japan likely 25K opening is the best we can hope for.

Beyond Q1 I think you can expect very anemic line-up in terms of exclusives for the PS4/PS5 - I don't expect Square to launch FFXVI this year, while God of War/Street Fighter aren't huge franchise in Japan. We don't even know if SF6 will be exclusive to PS at this time

Pretty good final weekend for ER to move up to 175. Just 5 more to go to reach 180 with 5 days left.

Xenoblade Chronicles 2 ??