Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: Animal Crossing NH Will Be The Best Selling Game of all time in Japan [8mil+

Woah, Nelly! That IS bold. I'm guessing no, but... that was a hell of a first week.



Retro Tech Select - My Youtube channel. Covers throwback consumer electronics with a focus on "vid'ya games."

Latest Video: Make Your Switch Games Sharper! Improve Picture Quality without Hacks or Mods – Bit Sized, Episode 4

Around the Network



German YouTuber and Streamer:
StarCraft and Fallout 4 currently.

Me trying to write reviews:
Octopath Traveler

Amazon thread

Now that's an actual bold prediction because we are talking about a market that cannot benefit from population growth because there is none. Becoming the best-selling AC is one thing (which looks like a given), but that still leaves quite a bit more sales to go in order to reach the predicted target.

This is a thread worthy of the tbone51 name. I am 60/40 on this, meaning it's slightly more probable to come true than not.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Now that's an actual bold prediction because we are talking about a market that cannot benefit from population growth because there is none. Becoming the best-selling AC is one thing (which looks like a given), but that still leaves quite a bit more sales to go in order to reach the predicted target.

This is a thread worthy of the tbone51 name. I am 60/40 on this, meaning it's slightly more probable to come true than not.

Thank you good sir, now let’s have a looksie here....

If AC does in fact sells around 700k in its second week we are looking at roughly 2.6mil sold with shortages in its first 2 weeks (first quarter). Add in digital which I’ll put it under 35% (lol) so let’s say 1.2mil. That’ll make Q1 ship+Digital over 3.8mil.

AC new leaf first quarter was around 2.3mil-2.5mil? First quarter which is 8 weeks and holiday.

Now Q2 will have shortages in the beginning as well as multiple 100k/200k weeks including Golden Week holiday. That could well be over 1.4mil in Q2 alone which would put it above 5.2mil and that doesn’t include summer quarter and especially holiday quarter (and rest of life)

I don’t believe hardware will slow down anytime if we exclude worldwide shortages, so it’s looking real good. 6mil is the floor and that’s only if the game comes crashing down



Well, it's a BOLD Tbone prediction.

In other words, nothing you should bet against, since those always seem to play out right.

My take: It will beat GS for sure, and could go the distance and beat RGB on the very long run (aka will take several years), but that's gonna be very difficult to pull off.



Around the Network
tbone51 said:
RolStoppable said:
Now that's an actual bold prediction because we are talking about a market that cannot benefit from population growth because there is none. Becoming the best-selling AC is one thing (which looks like a given), but that still leaves quite a bit more sales to go in order to reach the predicted target.

This is a thread worthy of the tbone51 name. I am 60/40 on this, meaning it's slightly more probable to come true than not.

Thank you good sir, now let’s have a looksie here....

If AC does in fact sells around 700k in its second week we are looking at roughly 2.6mil sold with shortages in its first 2 weeks (first quarter). Add in digital which I’ll put it under 35% (lol) so let’s say 1.2mil. That’ll make Q1 ship+Digital over 3.8mil.

AC new leaf first quarter was around 2.3mil-2.5mil? First quarter which is 8 weeks and holiday.

Now Q2 will have shortages in the beginning as well as multiple 100k/200k weeks including Golden Week holiday. That could well be over 1.4mil in Q2 alone which would put it above 5.2mil and that doesn’t include summer quarter and especially holiday quarter (and rest of life)

I don’t believe hardware will slow down anytime if we exclude worldwide shortages, so it’s looking real good. 6mil is the floor and that’s only if the game comes crashing down

Team 7M+ here we go!



German YouTuber and Streamer:
StarCraft and Fallout 4 currently.

Me trying to write reviews:
Octopath Traveler

Amazon thread

Maybe this isn’t bold enough lol

It’s at 2.6mil retail in 2 weeks



tbone51 said:
Maybe this isn’t bold enough lol

It’s at 2.6mil retail in 2 weeks

At retail when factoring in digital it's likely at 4m total already.



It's crazy how Animal Crossing has become even bigger than Pokemon in Japan.



Making a slight change... it’ll be number 1


Red/green sold over 8mil. It’s only 10mil when you add in blue that came out later