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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts February 2020 Discussion Thread

trunkswd said:

Read the article here.

PS4 vs Wii in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – February 2020

PlayStation 4 Vs. Wii US:

Gap change in latest month: 77,989 – PS4

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,009,082 – PS4

Total Lead: 8,319,923 – Wii

PlayStation 4 Total Sales: 32,543,229

Wii Total Sales: 40,863,152

February 2020 is the 76th month that the PlayStation 4 has been available for in the US. During the latest month the gap grew in favor of the PlayStation 4 when compared with the Wii during the same timeframe. The PlayStation 4 has caught up to the Wii by 77,989 units and in the last 12 months outsold the Wii by 2.01 million units. The Wii currently leads by 8.32 million units.

Both consoles launched in November. The Wii launched in November 2006, while the PlayStation 4 launched in November 2013. The PlayStation 4 has sold 32.54 million units, while the Wii sold 40.86 million units during the same timeframe.

The Wii sold units 41.70 million lifetime in the US, therefore the PlayStation 4 needs to sell another 9.16 million units to outsell the Wii.

Like PS3 vs PS4 in Japan, this is a fun one to watch as it may end up quite a tight race in the end. I still reckon the Wii will come out the winner, but it'll be close.

trunkswd said:

Read the article here.

Switch vs 3DS and Wii U in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – February 2020

Switch Vs. 3DS and Wii U USA:

Gap change in latest month: 95,758 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 1,265,996 - Switch

Total Lead: 1,490,623 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 17,674,547

3DS and Wii U Total Sales: 16,183,924

February 2020 is the 36th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for in the US. During the latest month the gap grew in favor of the Switch when compared to the combined sales of the 3DS and Wii U during the same timeframe by 95,758 units. In the last 12 months the gap has grown in favor of the Switch by 1.27 million units. The Switch is currently ahead of the 3DS and Wii U by 1.49 million units.

The 3DS launched in March 2011 and the Wii U launched in November 2012, while the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017. The Switch has sold 17.67 million units, while the 3DS and Wii U have sold 16.18 million units during the same timeframe.

The 3DS and Wii U have sold a combined 28.77 million units in the US. The Switch is currently 11.10 million units behind.

Gives me a lot of satisfaction to see this one after years of "it's not a success if it's not outselling Wii U + 3DS combined" downplaying.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Around the Network
curl-6 said:
trunkswd said:

Read the article here.

PS4 vs Wii in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – February 2020

PlayStation 4 Vs. Wii US:

Gap change in latest month: 77,989 – PS4

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,009,082 – PS4

Total Lead: 8,319,923 – Wii

PlayStation 4 Total Sales: 32,543,229

Wii Total Sales: 40,863,152

February 2020 is the 76th month that the PlayStation 4 has been available for in the US. During the latest month the gap grew in favor of the PlayStation 4 when compared with the Wii during the same timeframe. The PlayStation 4 has caught up to the Wii by 77,989 units and in the last 12 months outsold the Wii by 2.01 million units. The Wii currently leads by 8.32 million units.

Both consoles launched in November. The Wii launched in November 2006, while the PlayStation 4 launched in November 2013. The PlayStation 4 has sold 32.54 million units, while the Wii sold 40.86 million units during the same timeframe.

The Wii sold units 41.70 million lifetime in the US, therefore the PlayStation 4 needs to sell another 9.16 million units to outsell the Wii.

Like PS3 vs PS4 in Japan, this is a fun one to watch as it may end up quite a tight race in the end. I still reckon the Wii will come out the winner, but it'll be close.

trunkswd said:

Read the article here.

Switch vs 3DS and Wii U in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – February 2020

Switch Vs. 3DS and Wii U USA:

Gap change in latest month: 95,758 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 1,265,996 - Switch

Total Lead: 1,490,623 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 17,674,547

3DS and Wii U Total Sales: 16,183,924

February 2020 is the 36th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for in the US. During the latest month the gap grew in favor of the Switch when compared to the combined sales of the 3DS and Wii U during the same timeframe by 95,758 units. In the last 12 months the gap has grown in favor of the Switch by 1.27 million units. The Switch is currently ahead of the 3DS and Wii U by 1.49 million units.

The 3DS launched in March 2011 and the Wii U launched in November 2012, while the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017. The Switch has sold 17.67 million units, while the 3DS and Wii U have sold 16.18 million units during the same timeframe.

The 3DS and Wii U have sold a combined 28.77 million units in the US. The Switch is currently 11.10 million units behind.

Gives me a lot of satisfaction to see this one after years of "it's not a success if it's not outselling Wii U + 3DS combined" downplaying.

Agreed the Wii will likely remain ahead if the PS4 in the US by the end, however, the gap will continue to close every month from here on out. 

Switch is on track to sell 100+ million. So it will easily beat 3DS and Wii U.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Like PS3 vs PS4 in Japan, this is a fun one to watch as it may end up quite a tight race in the end. I still reckon the Wii will come out the winner, but it'll be close.

Gives me a lot of satisfaction to see this one after years of "it's not a success if it's not outselling Wii U + 3DS combined" downplaying.

Agreed the Wii will likely remain ahead if the PS4 in the US by the end, however, the gap will continue to close every month from here on out. 

Switch is on track to sell 100+ million. So it will easily beat 3DS and Wii U.

Yeah unless Nintendo do something unbelievably stupid Switch should breeze passed 3DS + Wii U.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
trunkswd said:

Agreed the Wii will likely remain ahead if the PS4 in the US by the end, however, the gap will continue to close every month from here on out. 

Switch is on track to sell 100+ million. So it will easily beat 3DS and Wii U.

Yeah unless Nintendo do something unbelievably stupid Switch should breeze passed 3DS + Wii U.

Animal Crossing has sold like mad and in turn pushed Switch sales to holiday levels. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

curl-6 said:
trunkswd said:

Read the article here.

PS4 vs Wii in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – February 2020

PlayStation 4 Vs. Wii US:

Gap change in latest month: 77,989 – PS4

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,009,082 – PS4

Total Lead: 8,319,923 – Wii

PlayStation 4 Total Sales: 32,543,229

Wii Total Sales: 40,863,152

February 2020 is the 76th month that the PlayStation 4 has been available for in the US. During the latest month the gap grew in favor of the PlayStation 4 when compared with the Wii during the same timeframe. The PlayStation 4 has caught up to the Wii by 77,989 units and in the last 12 months outsold the Wii by 2.01 million units. The Wii currently leads by 8.32 million units.

Both consoles launched in November. The Wii launched in November 2006, while the PlayStation 4 launched in November 2013. The PlayStation 4 has sold 32.54 million units, while the Wii sold 40.86 million units during the same timeframe.

The Wii sold units 41.70 million lifetime in the US, therefore the PlayStation 4 needs to sell another 9.16 million units to outsell the Wii.

Like PS3 vs PS4 in Japan, this is a fun one to watch as it may end up quite a tight race in the end. I still reckon the Wii will come out the winner, but it'll be close.

You keep saying that every month. What is your strong optimism for PS4 sales based on?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Like PS3 vs PS4 in Japan, this is a fun one to watch as it may end up quite a tight race in the end. I still reckon the Wii will come out the winner, but it'll be close.

You keep saying that every month. What is your strong optimism for PS4 sales based on?

The fact that it's already one of the highest selling systems of all time and that PS consoles typically don't fizzle out quickly.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

You keep saying that every month. What is your strong optimism for PS4 sales based on?

The fact that it's already one of the highest selling systems of all time and that PS consoles typically don't fizzle out quickly.

Quite true. PlayStation consoles generally have longer legs than Xbox or Nintendo consoles.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

You keep saying that every month. What is your strong optimism for PS4 sales based on?

The fact that it's already one of the highest selling systems of all time and that PS consoles typically don't fizzle out quickly.

The latter part is an outdated notion and too many people are unwilling to reassess that perception. Only the PS1 and PS2 can boast with strong legs, but none of the following three PS consoles came anywhere close. The PS3 sold only ~8m after the PS4 had launched, the PSP sold under 10m after the PSV had launched, the PSV tanked in all phases of its life. So in a dataset of five consoles we have three that fizzled out quickly, all of which are the more recent ones.

For additional context, the 3DS sold 11m after its successor had launched, showing better legs than any of the recent PS consoles. The Wii U was much like the PSV, the DS sold ~10m after the 3DS had launched, the Wii sold ~5m after the Wii U had launched. The Xbox 360 sold ~7m after the Xbox One had launched. When you look at all those numbers from the past two generations, it doesn't make sense to assign more longevity to PS consoles.

The factors that led to the PS1 and PS2 having strong legs - staggered launches across lots of countries over the years and general economical positives in certain parts of the world - did not apply for later generations anymore because PS consoles had more simultaneous launches across the whole world and there were no general economical boosts of the same magnitude anymore. That's why the PS4 should be expected to follow the PS3 and PSP trajectories, and if we look at the development of PS4 sales, we see indeed that PS4 sales are already strongly declining even before its successor is launching. The PS4's trajectory isn't going to get better once the PS5 is out. If @trunkswd 's current estimates are in the correct ballpark, then the PS4 is heading for a 40% decline in 2020 after an already notable decline of more than 20% in 2019.

All the above concerned global sales, but said sales trajectory of the PS4 holds true for the USA just the same. It's yearly sales dropped from ~5.5m in 2018 to a good 4m in 2019, so in 2020 it's likely going to sell about 3m, maybe even less. With the PS5 being available through the entirety of 2021, PS4 sales will fall by an even bigger percentage than in 2020, so a yearly total of under 2m is looking likely. Beyond 2021 it's just scraps. The PS4 needs another ~9m to match the Wii's lifetime sales in the USA, but the aforementioned numbers don't allow Sony to squeeze out much more than 6m and that is if things go well.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

The fact that it's already one of the highest selling systems of all time and that PS consoles typically don't fizzle out quickly.

The latter part is an outdated notion and too many people are unwilling to reassess that perception. Only the PS1 and PS2 can boast with strong legs, but none of the following three PS consoles came anywhere close. The PS3 sold only ~8m after the PS4 had launched, the PSP sold under 10m after the PSV had launched, the PSV tanked in all phases of its life. So in a dataset of five consoles we have three that fizzled out quickly, all of which are the more recent ones.

For additional context, the 3DS sold 11m after its successor had launched, showing better legs than any of the recent PS consoles. The Wii U was much like the PSV, the DS sold ~10m after the 3DS had launched, the Wii sold ~5m after the Wii U had launched. The Xbox 360 sold ~7m after the Xbox One had launched. When you look at all those numbers from the past two generations, it doesn't make sense to assign more longevity to PS consoles.

The factors that led to the PS1 and PS2 having strong legs - staggered launches across lots of countries over the years and general economical positives in certain parts of the world - did not apply for later generations anymore because PS consoles had more simultaneous launches across the whole world and there were no general economical boosts of the same magnitude anymore. That's why the PS4 should be expected to follow the PS3 and PSP trajectories, and if we look at the development of PS4 sales, we see indeed that PS4 sales are already strongly declining even before its successor is launching. The PS4's trajectory isn't going to get better once the PS5 is out. If @trunkswd 's current estimates are in the correct ballpark, then the PS4 is heading for a 40% decline in 2020 after an already notable decline of more than 20% in 2019.

All the above concerned global sales, but said sales trajectory of the PS4 holds true for the USA just the same. It's yearly sales dropped from ~5.5m in 2018 to a good 4m in 2019, so in 2020 it's likely going to sell about 3m, maybe even less. With the PS5 being available through the entirety of 2021, PS4 sales will fall by an even bigger percentage than in 2020, so a yearly total of under 2m is looking likely. Beyond 2021 it's just scraps. The PS4 needs another ~9m to match the Wii's lifetime sales in the USA, but the aforementioned numbers don't allow Sony to squeeze out much more than 6m and that is if things go well.

I don't think PS4 will have legs anywhere near PS1 or PS2 for the exact reasons you mentioned, but it should sell more post-replacement than PS3 simply by virtue of being a more popular system to begin with. If it drops by the same amount as PS3 percentage wise, shouldn't that still amount to a greater gross total as it's starting from a higher amount?

That said, I do expect Wii to end up ahead in the US, just not by a huge amount.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

I don't think PS4 will have legs anywhere near PS1 or PS2 for the exact reasons you mentioned, but it should sell more post-replacement than PS3 simply by virtue of being a more popular system to begin with. If it drops by the same amount as PS3 percentage wise, shouldn't that still amount to a greater gross total as it's starting from a higher amount?

That said, I do expect Wii to end up ahead in the US, just not by a huge amount.

The thing about the PS3 is that it had a backloaded sales curve unlike the PS4, so in 2013 (which is the comparable year to the PS4's 2020) it still managed to sell 8.25m units globally despite lower peak sales than the PS4 pulled off. In 2012 the PS3 sold 12.15m.

The PS4 sold 14.2m in 2019 and if the currently estimated 40% decline holds throughout the year, then that's ~8.5m in 2020. So heading into the post-replacement phase, the PS4 is selling similarly to the PS3. Since some time the big question has been if and when Sony will give the PS4 another price cut. If the PS4 gets cheaper, then it can do a bit better than the PS3 in terms of post-replacement sales (say, 10-12m instead of ~8m). But if it doesn't get a price reduction, then it's looking likely that we'll only see PS3 levels.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments