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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

SvennoJ said:

Australia reported 675 new cases (up from 266) and 2 deaths

I haven't kept track in a while, but didn't Australia have close to 0 daily cases for a while?
With quarantine required for people entering the country, how did it get to 675 in a week?



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Hiku said:
SvennoJ said:

Australia reported 675 new cases (up from 266) and 2 deaths

I haven't kept track in a while, but didn't Australia have close to 0 daily cases for a while?
With quarantine required for people entering the country, how did it get to 675 in a week?

They state lax quarantine at the border
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/australias-victoria-reports-10-local-covid-19-cases-first-day-lockdown-2021-07-15/

Officials reported 103 new cases on Friday, the bulk in Sydney with the remainder in Melbourne, taking total cases since the current outbreak began a month ago to above 1,000. Two people have died, 75 people are hospitalised with 18 in intensive care.

It's the delta variant together with low vaccination rate as of yet in Australia (28% first does, 11% fully vaccinated).

From Friday, 40% of the country's 25 million people - across Sydney, the outbreak epicentre, and the state of Victoria - were living under some form of lockdown conditions.

And who would have thought, Australians are just as stubborn as the rest of the world

Of major concern to health officials is the fact that the proportion of people out in public while infectious remains stubbornly high despite Sydney residents heading into a fourth week of lockdown.

Asutralia had only one Covid related death this year until last week.



I just got back in from our river exploring adventure (with my youngest). On the way back we came through the park and down town on our bikes. It's Sunday, very very busy. People all sitting close together in the park, huddled in the shade, queuing up for ice cream in town. Splash pads are back open and crowded. Mask use is down to 20% (still mandatory inside at least) but it just looks like a normal busy holiday, actually a bit more crowded than a normal summer holiday.

It's only a matter of time before our cases start rising again, although with near half the population now fully vaccinated, it should at least be a lot slower.



Australia and New Zealand definitely need to hurry up with vaccinations. Buy from China if you have to, 85-90% protection against deaths is better than nothing in the meantime.

TallSilhouette said:
haxxiy said:

An interesting discussion that I came across and shamelessly stole. Worth taking a few mins to read it. Added some extra posts in parentheses for context:

[snip]

Good write up. What are NPI's?

Non-pharmaceutical interventions. It can include anything from masks to lockdowns.



 

 

 

 

 

SvennoJ said:
Hiku said:

I haven't kept track in a while, but didn't Australia have close to 0 daily cases for a while?
With quarantine required for people entering the country, how did it get to 675 in a week?

They state lax quarantine at the border
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/australias-victoria-reports-10-local-covid-19-cases-first-day-lockdown-2021-07-15/

Officials reported 103 new cases on Friday, the bulk in Sydney with the remainder in Melbourne, taking total cases since the current outbreak began a month ago to above 1,000. Two people have died, 75 people are hospitalised with 18 in intensive care.

It's the delta variant together with low vaccination rate as of yet in Australia (28% first does, 11% fully vaccinated).

From Friday, 40% of the country's 25 million people - across Sydney, the outbreak epicentre, and the state of Victoria - were living under some form of lockdown conditions.

And who would have thought, Australians are just as stubborn as the rest of the world

Of major concern to health officials is the fact that the proportion of people out in public while infectious remains stubbornly high despite Sydney residents heading into a fourth week of lockdown.

Asutralia had only one Covid related death this year until last week.



I just got back in from our river exploring adventure (with my youngest). On the way back we came through the park and down town on our bikes. It's Sunday, very very busy. People all sitting close together in the park, huddled in the shade, queuing up for ice cream in town. Splash pads are back open and crowded. Mask use is down to 20% (still mandatory inside at least) but it just looks like a normal busy holiday, actually a bit more crowded than a normal summer holiday.

It's only a matter of time before our cases start rising again, although with near half the population now fully vaccinated, it should at least be a lot slower.

Basically all covid-19 transmission currently in Australia started from one unvaccinated person in Sydney who was driving international flight crews last month. From them it spread throughout Sydney, aided by the New South Wales state government's misguided and politically driven decision to not lock down until it was too late. 

From there it spread to other states. Last week a removalist who skipped interstate quarantine traveled from Sydney to Melbourne and worked at an apartment complex without wearing a mask. Another interstate arrival snuck out of home quarantine to go to the supermarket. Those two people seeded Delta throughout Melbourne and now we're in lockdown too.

Add to that our incompetent federal government refused to buy up enough vaccine when they had the chance; most people I know are desperate to get jabbed but there's just not enough to go around and for now only people over 40 or with special conditions are eligible, and most face wait times of months.

So yeah, basically idiot politicians and a few selfish people screwed us all.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Pretty condemning article to the "we're all in this together", "look how the world came together to quickly make vaccines for everyone" rhetoric

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/vaccine-inequity-inside-the-cutthroat-race-to-secure-doses-1.5513811

Basically still no tech sharing, big companies keeping the patents tightly locked up while rich countries stockpile vaccines beyond what they need.

Scientists agree that children are at low risk from COVID-19. But that hasn't stopped richer countries from stockpiling precious vaccine supplies to inoculate the young, even as poor countries have few or no shots to give.

A recent meeting of WHO's vaccine allocation group disbanded with nothing accomplished, because there was no vaccine to allocate. "Zero doses of AstraZeneca vaccine, zero doses of Pfizer vaccine, zero doses of J&J vaccine," said Dr. Bruce Aylward, a senior advisor at the organization.

"Every single one of our suppliers is unable to supply during this period because others are making demands on those products, others who are vaccinating very young populations that are not at risk," Aylward said.


But a plummeting jet takes all passengers with it, whether or not they are wearing masks. And the failure to provide vaccines across the globe ensures that COVID-19 will continue to spread, and mutate, and sicken, and kill.

"It speaks volumes about where we are as a globe when you have the source of decision-making sitting with very few people who have a lot of wealth and are essentially making life and death decisions for the rest of the globe," Mass General's Katz said. "Every month that we lost put us further and further behind."


We'll be stuck with Covid measures for a long time, and the death toll will keep adding up for years to come at this rate. It's sad, we're now destroying expired vaccine batches as we have more than people care to show up for.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/07/13/canada-has-let-thousands-of-astrazeneca-vaccine-doses-expire-and-thousands-more-soon-will-why-one-expert-calls-that-a-moral-failure.html?rf



And when it does get send on, it's beyond the expiry date and has to be destroyed
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/malawi-burns-20-000-expired-astrazeneca-covid-19-doses-despite-pleas-1.5434122

https://www.bbc.com/news/56940657

Many thousands of vaccine doses have been destroyed in African countries because they've exceeded their expiry dates.

Others are being returned by countries saying they will be unable to use them before they expire.



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What's going on. All the places that were successful in keeping the pandemic at bay are now falling one after the other. After Indonesia, now Vietnam is having a huge spike, first wave there, +128% week over week growth.

67 cases accredited to the Olympic games so far despite strict entry measures. 1,387 new cases in Tokyo on Tuesday. +52% week over week growth in Japan.



SvennoJ said:

What's going on. All the places that were successful in keeping the pandemic at bay are now falling one after the other. After Indonesia, now Vietnam is having a huge spike, first wave there, +128% week over week growth.

67 cases accredited to the Olympic games so far despite strict entry measures. 1,387 new cases in Tokyo on Tuesday. +52% week over week growth in Japan.

Other stuff going on:

India resently had a study find that, actually amount of mortality (deaths) due to covid19, could be around 10 times higher than the reported numbers.
(they simply go undiagnosed, or not reported to officals. This is obviously worse, near poorer area's and slums ect.)

However this means that they believe the actual number of dead in india due to covid could be in the range of 3+ million
(instead of the reported 400k ish number).

Myanmar, has had a military coup, resently and is currently dealing with mass riots and civil unrest.  They have no oxygen left to give at hospitals, nor drugs to treat the covid with.... leading to many becomeing pretty angry with them, which lead to doctors going into hideing. They basically have a 55 million population country, without healthcare, right when covid is spikeing (ontop of civil unrest, ect).  Black markets, opened up for oxygen. Mostly its just going to military.
In total they have recived something like 10,000 vaccines (a country of 55m). Without any health care, covid kills alot more people, if its allowed to just sweep accross the country, you might have like 5% of the population just die off due to it.



SvennoJ said:

What's going on. All the places that were successful in keeping the pandemic at bay are now falling one after the other. After Indonesia, now Vietnam is having a huge spike, first wave there, +128% week over week growth.

67 cases accredited to the Olympic games so far despite strict entry measures. 1,387 new cases in Tokyo on Tuesday. +52% week over week growth in Japan.

A lot of Eastern Asian countries, China included, had to deal with an outbreak of just A-lineage SARS-CoV-2 back in early 2020 before closing their borders. A-lineage viruses without the D614G mutation had an R0 of just ~ 1.8.

The B.1 lineage that emerged in Lombardy and wreaked havoc in Italy and New York was already 50% more contagious than this, and Delta is 100% more contagious than B.1. That might help explain what is happening there. The first casualty of Delta was the illusion of control...

JRPGfan said:
SvennoJ said:

Other stuff going on:

India resently had a study find that, actually amount of mortality (deaths) due to covid19, could be around 10 times higher than the reported numbers.
(they simply go undiagnosed, or not reported to officals. This is obviously worse, near poorer area's and slums ect.)

However this means that they believe the actual number of dead in india due to covid could be in the range of 3+ million
(instead of the reported 400k ish number).

Makes sense given seropositivity rates of no less than 67% - 85% following the second wave in India, up from 24% - 50% by the end of 2020. That's at least a billion people infected, many of them with sub-optimal healthcare availability.

Subsaharan Africa is probably following on India's footsteps. A lot of countries there are already past the peak, even, with catastrophic outcomes to healthcare in the meantime.



 

 

 

 

 

I don't really understand how India or poor countries can get so punished by Covid, when they have extremely young populations. When half of your population is kids, Covid won't be doing much as opposed to half of your population being old people. In Japan, we still need a lot of old people to get vaccinated, progress is very slow despite Japan being a rich country.



Farsala said:

I don't really understand how India or poor countries can get so punished by Covid, when they have extremely young populations. When half of your population is kids, Covid won't be doing much as opposed to half of your population being old people. In Japan, we still need a lot of old people to get vaccinated, progress is very slow despite Japan being a rich country.

Firstly, it's a myth that covid-19 isn't serious for young people; it may not be as deadly as it is to the elderly but it can still kill.

Secondly, a lot of poor countries have very large populations so there are still tens or hundreds of millions in late middle age or old age.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.