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UK had 52,000 new cases today..... wow.

Hospitalisation, and ICU beds for covid patients are riseing slowly too now.
Give it a month, and you'll again see the deaths claim.

Its a race against the clock, get people vaccinated, before delta varient wrecks havoc with the systems needed to handle it.



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JRPGfan said:

UK had 52,000 new cases today..... wow.

Hospitalisation, and ICU beds for covid patients are riseing slowly too now.
Give it a month, and you'll again see the deaths claim.

Its a race against the clock, get people vaccinated, before delta varient wrecks havoc with the systems needed to handle it.

No good. Looks like even when my girlfriend (she lives in the UK) is fully vaccinated at the end of August I won't be visiting her anytime soon. 



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JRPGfan said:
haxxiy said:

Im happy denmark was like... nope, we're not doing the astrazeneca vaccine, anyone wanna trade us, for some Pfizer?
After looking at the data, for how effective it was, and how many people were getting blood clots ect.

Almost everyone here, is vaccinated with pfizer.

I'd be fine with AstraZeneca. Strong cellular response and antibody titers don't tip among the 80+ like with the mRNA vaccines. It just got unlucky the whole blood cot issue was found out before the myocarditis one.

As for CoronaVac, it actually matches Pfizer in cellular response. The problem is that it is outright not immunogenic in a minority of people, which likely explains  that extra 5 - 10% protection that is missing against severe disease. Sinopharm's vaccine, which is also made from the innactivated virus, has the same issue, which is why the UAE, Hungary, are giving third doses to those who are lab testing negative after the two-dose regimen.



 

 

 

 

 

Weekly update.

South Africa is rebounding from their 3rd wave, South America is trending down as well. The rest of the world is heading back up. Especially Europe which seems to be dead set on testing the vaccines to the max, giving the virus every opportunity to mutate into a more successful strain...


In total 3.45 million new cases were reported last week (up from 2.98 million) to a total of 190,269,458
Also another 56,652 more deaths were reported (slightly up from 55,172) to a total of 4,091,477

Europe and USA are both rising pretty fast, deaths are also slowly starting to rise again

The continents

Asia reported 1.35 million new cases (up from 1.14 million) and 21,552 more deaths (up from 18,674)

Europe reported 834K new cases (up from 603K) and 6,685 more deaths (6,618 last week)
South America reported 592K new cases (down from 697K) and 17,981 more deaths (down from 19,992)
North America reported 379K new cases (up from 256K) and 4,413 more deaths (up from 3,795)
Africa reported 289K new cases (slightly up from 280K) and 5,988 more deaths (6,061 last week)
Oceania reported 6,590 new cases (up from 4,766) and 33 deaths (32 last week)

Cases are growing exponentially in Fiji (Oceania), 39% with first dose is not doing much (only 7% fully vaccinated)


Corners of the world

Brazil reported 288K new cases (down from 333K) and 8,723 more deaths (down from 9,709)
India reported 269K new cases (down from 294K) and 5,950 more deaths (down from 6,105)
USA reported 218K new cases (up from 131K) and 1,898 more deaths (up from 1,547)
Iran reported 142K new cases (up from 111K) and 1,248 more deaths (up from 1,027)
South Africa reported 111K new cases (down from 138K) and 2,512 more deaths (2,541 last week)
Japan reported 17.2K new cases (up from 12.3K) and 97 deaths (115 last week)
South Korea reported 9,702 new cases (up from 6,795) and 15 deaths (12 last week)
Canada reported 2,677 new cases (down from 3,647) and 70 deaths (81 last week)
Australia reported 675 new cases (up from 266) and 2 deaths

Europe in detail

Play a game of chicken with the virus and vaccines, who will give up first...



It looks like unvaccinated conservative states are getting battered by Covid a bit more, as one might expect. I hope they don't go with the UK strategy, but it might be unavoidable with the vaccination hesitancy.

In the country I live in, the Olympics and the end to the rainy season has everyone moving out, creating a Delta cluster. I still have no hope for a vaccination any time soon, despite interacting with many people every day.



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An interesting discussion that I came across and shamelessly stole. Worth taking a few mins to read it. Added some extra posts in parentheses for context:

I don't think leaders here have wrapped their heads around the impact of Delta in the US. This is a new era: A) A bad phase of the pandemic for unvaccinated adults and B) The beginning of the endemic reality for vaccinated people. Policy responses require a new paradigm.

On A: A bad phase of the pandemic for unvaccinated adults. US vaccinations have flattened at an embarrassing level vs. peer countries. Lots of blame to go around here - I point fingers both at people yelling for NPIs forever and the nuts on Fox News - but the numbers are bad.

I was hopeful that the fact that the fast expansion into vaccinating younger people in the US would help suppress the Delta wave in unvaccinated people (herd immunity), but math for ~85% HITs given Delta probably makes that a pipe dream.

Scott Gottlieb hints at the CDC sitting on modeling showing a significant wave in the US.

In light of that, takes like this (So basically your choices are to get vaccinated or to get COVID) are probably fair.

Cases are just creeping up in the US on aggregate but I think we need to be prepared for a bad outbreak (in case numbers) like the UK, concentrated on unvaccinated people.

So far, the reaction has been mask mandates being reinstated in parts of CA, but other areas moving forward without NPIs. That is in a ~40k/day case environment. I'm not sure how the national mood will shift in a ~100k+/day case environment, concentrated on the unvaccinated.

But more on my policy thoughts later in the thread.

On B: The beginning of the endemic reality for vaccinated people. With Delta, it's unlikely that Covid will ever go away, or be held at low levels. I'm not convinced there's any realistic level of vaccination that could make that happen (it probably is now at a level that is unachievable even w/ very high vaccine coverage except maybe in some areas).

The dream would be treating this like the measles, of course. We know that global Zero Covid isn't possible, but in theory if you could keep sterilizing immunity high enough, you could keep infections low enough to not ever think about.

(Elimination is a red herring. Measles has extremely high R, has a low but notable rate of serious complications, and is not eliminated. But you never worry about it because over 90% of people were vaccinated as kids and it doesn't spread anymore. That should be our goal).

But transmissibility like Delta makes that unlikely. And we should remember that antigenic drift is real, and will likely break SARS-CoV-2 out of sterilizing immunity over time anyway. This isn't measles.

(CoV antigenic drift is capable of giving us a virus capable of evading sterilizing immunity & giving us a nasty cold for a few days. this is not the same as an immunologically novel virus).

Delta and low vaccination rates have ushered in the world where endemic SARS-CoV-2 is swirling around vaccinated people, but I suspect this was an inevitable reality. I was seduced by the VeryLowCovid reality of early Summer, hoping it would stay, but it's fleeting.

My takeaway here is that all vaccinated people will be at least exposed to SARS-CoV-2, and, with antigenic drift and waning nABs, will contract the virus at some point. Clearly, there are plenty of vaccinated people worried about this reality. How worried should we be?

The odds-on answer seems to be that once everyone is exposed (and we should expect 100% seroprevalence) it will be a common cold-level threat due to immunological memory, even with new variants over time.

If that's not the case, and this thing does burst through all immunity over time including protection against severe disease, I have no good answer. Boosters will be necessary but it will be a constant race to update them as variants spread. Let's hope not.

But I also suspect there is an outsized threat right now to some vaccinated people that is worse than the long-term threat of the endemic virus. My going hypothesis here is that some people who did not have a strong immune reaction to the vaccine are at risk right now.

There have been 791 deaths in the US of fully-vaccinated people, so we unfortunately cannot fully claim 100% protection against death from Covid-19 with the vaccines. Still, this of course pales in comparison to unvaccinated deaths.

There are signs that severe Covid cases are concentrated in sicker people who are less likely to have mounted a strong immune response to the vaccine, vs. breakthrough cases in the rest of the population.

(Almost all of them (96%) had comorbidities: heart disease, lung disease, renal disease, dementia, cancer, or other common ailments. People who get breakthrough infections and are admitted are sicker than a usual person).

In this world, the meaning of endemic Covid is that most of the vaccinated will be infected by SARS-CoV-2 at some point. For most of us that will be a cold. For those who don't seroconvert from the vaccine it could be a worse threat.

But, in this world, everyone will seroconvert eventually, one way or another. It will be a cold to everyone at that point. But on the road to that, vaccines won't perfectly protect everyone who is vaccinated from death.

That is both a tragedy and something I'm not sure we can solve.

Where does that leave us in terms of policy?

If my hypotheses are right, this leaves leaders in a dark place in the short-term but an okay place in the long-term. In the short term, there is nothing that leaders can really do to prevent 100% seroconversion, with all its consequences.

Obviously encouraging vaccination will reduce domestic deaths in the heretofore-unvaccinated, but even that comes at the cost of fewer vaccines available for abroad. And I don't think it protects those who don't mount strong immune responses long-term.

NPIs? Those come at a cost, and just delay the inevitable. We will not defeat Covid using NPIs - potentially just delay some infections into the future. That made sense when vaccines were on the horizon. Not as much now, unless there is imminent threat of HC system failure.

I make fun of places adding back light-weight NPIs with a history of failing. The reality is that masks won't stop the train to 100% seroconversion, but they do have real costs (bars / clubs / music can't functionally operate with masks; return to office just won't happen).

The sad reality here is that, even if the endemic steady state is okay, there are dark days ahead for the world. The sadder reality is that NPIs aren't very helpful tools, and come at a real cost. The sort-of exception is if you can buy time to higher vaccination with them.

I think the reality of endemic Covid needs to be communicated to the world at this point. As I said at the top of the thread, I don't think many US leaders have fully wrapped their heads around it. Maybe the CDC has, but probably not state leaders.

In a sense, I admire Boris Johnson and Chris Whitty for being pretty honest with their people about this reality.

The summer has been a fun summer of reopening in the US for many (myself included), but my crystal ball is foggy about both how leaders will react to the immediate surge in cases and to the reality of long-term endemicity.



 

 

 

 

 

It's all a bit hopeless tbh. We let it get too far and indeed any chances of eliminating Sars-Cov-2 have passed. What does this mean for my imunocompromised wife? The second shot was already a big burden on her, she was coughing up crap for almost 2 weeks, trouble breathing again, arms and hands going blue-ish from lack of oxygen. (I had a bit of a sore arm and felt a bit more tire for 2 days in comparison)

This doesn't sound like she can ever go without a mask again, but eventually the kids will bring it home from school. Hopefully the virus will have weakened enough by then not to bring more severe complications. She barely survived the first time (we think) she caught it. (She really needs a lung x-ray to check what's going on, and/or look for leftover damage, but doctors and hospitals are too busy)



While the risks for kids are low, there are some real risks
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/approximately-1-in-25-children-hospitalized-with-covid-19-develop-neurological-complications-u-k-study-1.5513185
Immunizing kids seems not neccessary atm (better to vaccinate the rest of the world first), however it will have to be added to the rest of the early vaccinations cocktails.

The best they can give us here is 'unlikely' now the borders are about to re-open
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/vaccinated-visitors-from-u-s-unlikely-to-spread-virus-experts-say-1.5513101
"The risk won't be zero ... (but) we have to start making these adjustments to move back to normal," he said. "We can't stay in suspended animation with our nearest neighbour."
That while cases are surging in the US, just as we got ours to the lowest level in many months.

A recent study from the United Kingdom compared spread among household contacts after vaccinated and unvaccinated family members got COVID-19. The study found at least one dose cut transmission to unvaccinated members by 40 to 50 per cent.

Another pre-print study from Israel, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, suggests vaccines are 88.5 per cent effective against transmission.

"So it's clearly not 100 per cent, but (vaccination) really does (reduce) the transmission chain," Chakrabarti said.

Nazeem Muhajarine, an epidemiology professor at the University of Saskatchewan, said that while spread from a fully vaccinated traveller would be rare, unvaccinated or partially-vaccinated Canadians are vulnerable, especially if visitors unknowingly bring in new variants of the virus.




Meanwhile the Olympics must go on (stupid)
https://www.ctvnews.ca/sports/first-positive-covid-19-tests-for-athletes-in-olympic-village-1.5513705

Organizers say since July 1, 55 people linked to the Olympics have reported positive tests. This figure does not include athletes or others who may have arrived for training camps but are not yet under the "jurisdiction" of the organizing committee.

The Olympics will open on Friday under a state of emergency in Tokyo and three neighbouring prefectures. The emergency order lasts until Aug. 22. The Olympics close on Aug. 8.

Fans -- local and those from abroad -- have been banned for all Olympic events in Tokyo and the three neighbouring prefectures. A few outlying venues may allow a smattering of local fans.

About 200 protesters gathered on Sunday outside Shinjuku station in central Tokyo, waving signs that read "No Olympics." It was the latest in a series of small protests over the last few months targeting the Games.

"We are not only protesting the Olympics," protester Karoi Todo told The Associated Press. "We are opposing the government overall -- this is ignoring human rights and our right to life. Infections are increasing. To do the Olympics is unforgivable."



haxxiy said:

An interesting discussion that I came across and shamelessly stole. Worth taking a few mins to read it. Added some extra posts in parentheses for context:

[snip]

Good write up. What are NPI's?



Reading the Covidist discussing together after 18 months of scam is fun and scary in the same time.

Do not worry for the unvaccinated people, full mandatory vaccination is coming soon to US too.



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SvennoJ said:
Barozi said:

Honestly, based on my recent research, Canada was the only country I encountered that did that.

Reporting them like that is pretty much pointless anyway as they can't be compared to other countries. In Germany for example, the eligible age is 18+. Therefore not comparable. Even less comparable for countries that have a different distribution of age groups (especially more young people).

Furthermore the eligible age could change at any time which will cause the percentages to suddenly drop even though you keep vaccinating more people. Just report it based on total population and accept that you can never reach 100% (which isn't the target anyway).

Ah, my incorrect assumption from the disclaimer below the graph.

They also put a table up
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-vaccination-tracker-how-many-people-in-canada-have-received-shots-1.5247509

Gibraltar is at the top with 116% of the population having received a first dose, I guess people go over the border to get a shot? And the worst, lots of countries in Africa still only around 1%.

Gibraltar, Malta and Iceland are the top 3 for fully vaccinated (115%, 80% and 72%)

About 50% of the workforce of Gibraltar are Spanish people living in Spain so I guess they were eligible to get a shot there.