Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 90 49.18%
 
No, but I will be followi... 50 27.32%
 
No, its being overblown 43 23.50%
 
Total:183
Barozi said:

Amnesia said:

"they never stopped living normally"

You mean aside from having a bigger economic decline and higher unemployment rate than the other Nordic countries?

"they have made their largest number of test last week, conclusion, it is nearly over there"

"Over the past week the country carried out more than 120,000 tests, of which only 1.3 per cent identified the disease."

Germany's been below 1.3% since the end of May (with one week in between slightly above it at 1.37%). That's hardly an impressive number and shows just how much worse the Swedes handled it. I didn't check the numbers but I think Denmark, Norway and Finland had a much much lower number than Germany even.

And let's not talk about the death rate which is 5 times higher than Denmark, 9 times higher than Finland and almost 12 times higher than Norway...

Positivity rates around 1% are irrelevant and interchangeable considering noise from false positives or sample contamination.

Besides, both Norway and Denmark now have higher cases per capita, and even in absolute cases, if we are talking about Denmark. So, who knows what winter will bring. It's a sprint, not a race. Not that I'm rooting for disaster, of course, but the trend seems clear all over Europe and that will have to be reckoned and dealt with, with all the expected impacts.

There was also this:

The now completely laughable model from the Imperial College for Sweden, that evidently way, way overshot both the IFR and percentage of infected people until the outbreak ends.



 

 

 

 

 

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Barozi said:
Amnesia said:

15% of vaccinated people + a high level of immunization in the population will be more than enough to make it stop almost.

In Sweden, they have made their largest number of test last week, conclusion, it is nearly over there, and they never stopped living normally and without mask.

"they never stopped living normally"

You mean aside from having a bigger economic decline and higher unemployment rate than the other Nordic countries?

"they have made their largest number of test last week, conclusion, it is nearly over there"

"Over the past week the country carried out more than 120,000 tests, of which only 1.3 per cent identified the disease."

Germany's been below 1.3% since the end of May (with one week in between slightly above it at 1.37%). That's hardly an impressive number and shows just how much worse the Swedes handled it. I didn't check the numbers but I think Denmark, Norway and Finland had a much much lower number than Germany even.

And let's not talk about the death rate which is 5 times higher than Denmark, 9 times higher than Finland and almost 12 times higher than Norway...

As a french, I am just seeing that Sweden had as much death approx. as Italy and France, and yet they had no full lock down, and they could and are still living without mask. Today the 2nd wave doesn't take off in Sweden and it does in France. I am spared now from all this hysteria because I live in a far area of Hungary, but I am seriously considering searching a job in Sweden now.



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I guess we only have false positive here then with a positivity rate of average 0.5%... Test reliability must be getting worse as the positivity rate is slowly going up with the same number of tests. It was down to 0.25%, now up to 0.90%. All those people still in hiding for nothing, not allowed to visit hospitals and elderly homes for nothing, keeping the borders shut for nothing, keeping the kids home for nothing, sticking to their small social bubbles for nothing, keeping their distance for nothing, keeping people out / limiting customers inside for nothing, wearing masks for nothing.... It has been over for months!

Sorry, but only thanks to the ongoing measures we're staying below the predictions from the imperial college. It's still here, moving along the younger population that have far less severe symptoms and far less deaths. Life is far from back to normal.



302k cases today.



Amnesia said:
Barozi said:

"they never stopped living normally"

You mean aside from having a bigger economic decline and higher unemployment rate than the other Nordic countries?

"they have made their largest number of test last week, conclusion, it is nearly over there"

"Over the past week the country carried out more than 120,000 tests, of which only 1.3 per cent identified the disease."

Germany's been below 1.3% since the end of May (with one week in between slightly above it at 1.37%). That's hardly an impressive number and shows just how much worse the Swedes handled it. I didn't check the numbers but I think Denmark, Norway and Finland had a much much lower number than Germany even.

And let's not talk about the death rate which is 5 times higher than Denmark, 9 times higher than Finland and almost 12 times higher than Norway...

As a french, I am just seeing that Sweden had as much death approx. as Italy and France, and yet they had no full lock down, and they could and are still living without mask. Today the 2nd wave doesn't take off in Sweden and it does in France. I am spared now from all this hysteria because I live in a far area of Hungary, but I am seriously considering searching a job in Sweden now.

You're not thinking...at all.

You're comparing two countries from different regions. Compare Sweden to Norway, Denmark and Finland. They are far more similar in climate, wealth and mentality. They also share borders and thus the people there have more working and loving relations.

France borders Spain and Italy and they have a direct connection to the UK. All of these regions were hit the hardest and you're surprised that France is worse off than many other European states and just slightly better than Sweden?

Also you're not even considering what would've happened in France if they didn't go into lockdown and forced mask wearing. I told you what happened in Sweden's neighboring states in my previous post - several times lower death rates. Using the same multiplier for France, it's not unlikely to assume that their death toll would be 100k-300k without these measures.

You can't have a 2nd wave if the first isn't over. France and many other countries were trending down much earlier than Sweden, while Sweden finally "ended" their first wave. That doesn't mean that there won't be a 2nd wave in Sweden. You'd be incredibly naive to assume that. Just as naive as to assume that there won't be a 3rd, a 4th or a 5th wave in any other country until a vaccine is ready.

Last edited by Barozi - on 11 September 2020

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haxxiy said:
Barozi said:

"they never stopped living normally"

You mean aside from having a bigger economic decline and higher unemployment rate than the other Nordic countries?

"they have made their largest number of test last week, conclusion, it is nearly over there"

"Over the past week the country carried out more than 120,000 tests, of which only 1.3 per cent identified the disease."

Germany's been below 1.3% since the end of May (with one week in between slightly above it at 1.37%). That's hardly an impressive number and shows just how much worse the Swedes handled it. I didn't check the numbers but I think Denmark, Norway and Finland had a much much lower number than Germany even.

And let's not talk about the death rate which is 5 times higher than Denmark, 9 times higher than Finland and almost 12 times higher than Norway...

Positivity rates around 1% are irrelevant and interchangeable considering noise from false positives or sample contamination.

Besides, both Norway and Denmark now have higher cases per capita, and even in absolute cases, if we are talking about Denmark. So, who knows what winter will bring. It's a sprint, not a race. Not that I'm rooting for disaster, of course, but the trend seems clear all over Europe and that will have to be reckoned and dealt with, with all the expected impacts.

There was also this:

The now completely laughable model from the Imperial College for Sweden, that evidently way, way overshot both the IFR and percentage of infected people until the outbreak ends.

"Positivity rates around 1% are irrelevant and interchangeable considering noise from false positives or sample contamination."

That's not the point. The point is that it took ages for Sweden to get close to 1% while many many other countries have been around 1% for months.

"Besides, both Norway and Denmark now have higher cases per capita, and even in absolute cases, if we are talking about Denmark."

I'm not blindly going to believe the first part but I'm not in the mood to find their data. Let's just say even if it's true, it's probably not far off from Sweden's current numbers, so by your definition just statistical noise.

The second part of that statement however is just misleading at best and plain wrong at worst. Denmark currently has more confirmed cases because they are testing far far more people. ~45k daily tests (0.78% of the population) vs. 18k daily tests (0.18% of the population) (based on 126k tests last week).

That's roughly 4 times more tests per capita in Denmark compare to Sweden. You talk about confirmed cases while it's obvious that Sweden's true daily case count is quite a bit higher than Denmark's.



Barozi said:
haxxiy said:

Positivity rates around 1% are irrelevant and interchangeable considering noise from false positives or sample contamination.

Besides, both Norway and Denmark now have higher cases per capita, and even in absolute cases, if we are talking about Denmark. So, who knows what winter will bring. It's a sprint, not a race. Not that I'm rooting for disaster, of course, but the trend seems clear all over Europe and that will have to be reckoned and dealt with, with all the expected impacts.

There was also this:

The now completely laughable model from the Imperial College for Sweden, that evidently way, way overshot both the IFR and percentage of infected people until the outbreak ends.

"Positivity rates around 1% are irrelevant and interchangeable considering noise from false positives or sample contamination."

That's not the point. The point is that it took ages for Sweden to get close to 1% while many many other countries have been around 1% for months.

"Besides, both Norway and Denmark now have higher cases per capita, and even in absolute cases, if we are talking about Denmark."

I'm not blindly going to believe the first part but I'm not in the mood to find their data. Let's just say even if it's true, it's probably not far off from Sweden's current numbers, so by your definition just statistical noise.

The second part of that statement however is just misleading at best and plain wrong at worst. Denmark currently has more confirmed cases because they are testing far far more people. ~45k daily tests (0.78% of the population) vs. 18k daily tests (0.18% of the population) (based on 126k tests last week).

That's roughly 4 times more tests per capita in Denmark compare to Sweden. You talk about confirmed cases while it's obvious that Sweden's true daily case count is quite a bit higher than Denmark's.

If they are testing less per capita, wouldn't their positivity rate by default be higher, then? Or do you believe they're just blindly stumbling into positives?

I understand you wouldn't be in the mood to research data that contradicts your point of view (it's all freely available in Our World In Data, by the way) but don't expect me, then, to accept your logical inference, without any study to back it up, that Sweden MUST have more cases just because you think so.

Here's something to think about:

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/germany-covid-19-cases-rise-as-schools-reopen/1941262

Vs.

https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-09-07-here-the-mass-tests-continue-on-campus.By7ssdTX4v.html

Last edited by haxxiy - on 11 September 2020

 

 

 

 

 

So what do we have then when we compare neighbor countries...I believe it is too early to say. My bet is that at the end, if the vaccine takes too long to arrive, all these country will have a similar death per capita. Sweden had its dose of it and they are now more immunized.

But let's see the final stats in May 2021.

And I am aware about the testing capacity of Denmark vs Sweden, you can divide by 3 the height of the 2nd dome for Denmark, doesn't really change what I want to show.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
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Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

It looks like Peru will be the worst-hit nation in the world when all is said and done:

Over 60,000 excess deaths already by the looks of it - about 0.2% of its population. Thankfully, the number of daily deaths and hospitalized people has been in a consistent decline for a while, so I suspect the virus is finally running out of available hosts.

Somehow, Peru cooked the perfect storm: the low number of ICU beds (1,600 compared to 46,000 in Brazil and 93,000 in the US) was certainly a determinant factor, but it's likely that so were other biological and social particularities we can guess but only speculate about their precise impact.

Studies in the upcoming years will be interesting and hopefully we'll learn something from them.



 

 

 

 

 

Update for Canada and the struggle with back to school

A steady increase nation wide since the last re-openings. Cases aren't as high yet as before and the average age of infections is far lower than before, the more at risk people are still in hiding. However schools had to close early March when detected cases were far lower than they are currently, plus Doug Ford said at some point that he would like to be under 100 daily cases for schools to resume. Today added 213 cases to Ontario.

The latest news on online learning is, perhaps sometimes during the next week we'll get more information... But if you happen to still have your username and password from before the holidays you can attempt to log in to Bright space to re-familiarize yourself with it.

We know you are anxiously awaiting the start of our Grand Erie K-12 Virtual Academy. Many of you have questions about online learning, the availability of technology, and when your children can expect to begin their school year. As the letter shared last week said, it is our intention to have the Virtual Academy up and running before the end of next week (September 14 –18). We understand this isn’t as specific as anyone would like, and we apologize for that. We are currently in the process of staffing the Virtual Academy and will provide more details to you once that process is complete.

Erm the school year started on Tuesday, good job... The kids are happy, still on March break....

Schools have started for those who want to risk the full class rooms. 4 class rooms are and will remain empty in our school since they put all the students together to save on teachers. It's A-M one day, N-Z last names next day to start off, which actually created a class with only one student one day and all the others the next day. The incompetence has no end. It should be full attendance from next Wednesday. However one school has already closed again due to detecting cases and school buses are being cancelled left and right since the drivers don't feel it's safe. There is currently a CAD 5000 signing bonus to drive a school bus (if you have the correct license)

Total clusterfuck!