By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 24 9.02%
 
First half of 2023 21 7.89%
 
Second half of 2023 32 12.03%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.64%
 
Second half of 2024 16 6.02%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.63%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.88%
 
Later than above 2 0.75%
 
Never 144 54.14%
 
Total:266
victor83fernandes said:
padib said:

Today is Feb 2020. The switch was launched on March 3rd 2017 and therefore has been on the market for roughly 3 years.

It will have various models and can have multi-sales due to having a portable incarnation, so it will enjoy sales strength greater than a Nintendo handheld.
It will see various revisions and is seeing strong early success, therefore a sequel will be late for the Switch compared to previous handhelds and home consoles. I believe it will have an 10-year lifespan due to success and scalability of graphical power.

Over the course of these 10 years, it will have a front-loaded curve which will peak in around 2 years and slowly decrease.

Currently the Switch sells on average 16 million per years (AVG 1m per month, and 5 million in December). That number can rise up to 18m within the next 2 years.

Current sales: 50.5m
YoY Feb 2021: 17m (67.5m)
YoY Feb 2022: 18m (75.5m)
YoY Feb 2023: 18m (93.5m)
YoY Feb 2024: 15m (108.5m)
YoY Feb 2025: 13m (121.5m)

The PS4 is selling 10.8m per year right in 2020, in 2019 it was selling ~18m last year. I see this trend for PS4
YoY Feb 2021: 6m (113m)
YoY Feb 2022: 4m (117m)
YoY Feb 2023: 2m (119m)
YoY Feb 2024: 1m (120m)
YoY Feb 2025: 0.5m (120.5m)

In my opinion the Switch will outsell the PS4 during the 2024 holidays.

Nintendo is not keeping the switch for another 5 years, I am 100% certain they will release a new console before then. They never had a console going for 8 years without a successor. Sales will drop fast, just like 3ds, no way the switch would be selling 13 million in 2025, no way, most people who wanted one already have it, unless they would be sold at 120 dollars in 2025.

You expect the ps4 to sell 6 million until next year? I don't know what drugs are you on, but there will be a price drop, games price drops and a thing called Christmas and blackfriday, the ps4 will sell minimum 10 million until next February, easily. And minimum 5million the year after, because of the low prices, there are a lot of poor people who cant afford 450dollars consoles + 60-70 dollars games. I know of people still using a ps3 and still waiting on the ps4 to reach 150dollars with games.

At current pace the ps4 would sell 7 million, but its a slow month, when last of us 2 releases, the ps4 sales will more than double, and then on black Friday with price drop it will triple. 7 million would be the absolute minimum sales possible, there's less than 10% chance of them selling only 7 million. Maybe if sony released the ps5 at 399dollars which is impossible, as the ssd alone costs more than 100 dollars.

Come back to me when its proven that I'm right yet again.

Lmaoooo



Around the Network

Switch will hit 100M in 2021. PS4's lifetime sales should be around 125M. I expect another close to 20M year for Switch in 2022, so Switch should outsell PS4 sometime in 2023, probably second half to make a safe bet.



TruckOSaurus said:

I'm sad that the people who argued with me about the PS4 selling 150m have stopped posting so I can't rub it in their faces.

How about the one who created the thread that PS4 would never relinquish its 50% market share against the combined sales of Switch and XBOne? Don't you want to rub his face too?



wohufana said:
TruckOSaurus said:

I'm sad that the people who argued with me about the PS4 selling 150m have stopped posting so I can't rub it in their faces.

How about the one who created the thread that PS4 would never relinquish its 50% market share against the combined sales of Switch and XBOne? Don't you want to rub his face too?

I don't think I've engaged with that person in particular though so it's less personal.



Signature goes here!

TruckOSaurus said:

I'm sad that the people who argued with me about the PS4 selling 150m have stopped posting so I can't rub it in their faces.

You could still collect all their posts into one post and turn it into a wall of shame



Around the Network

If it sells 35 million next year it could happen the first halve of 2022. But it will probably happen during the holiday of 2023 or shortly after. Unless the clif is real.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

The first pages of this thread gives me a strong "Pre-launch Switch prediction thread" feeling. What makes it hilarious is that this thread was made in 2020.

Did people really thought the Switch hardware would start decreasing the year we would get the first mainline Animal Crossing in freaking 7 years?



Switch Friend Code: SW - 1286-0025-9138

Stuart23 said:

The first pages of this thread gives me a strong "Pre-launch Switch prediction thread" feeling. What makes it hilarious is that this thread was made in 2020.

Did people really thought the Switch hardware would start decreasing the year we would get the first mainline Animal Crossing in freaking 7 years?

"Nintendo platforms always peak early, there's no way Switch's 4th year will be bigger than it's 3rd, the future can only ever consist of repetitions of past patterns."



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Wow, impressive how much opinion has drifted.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
TruckOSaurus said:

I'm sad that the people who argued with me about the PS4 selling 150m have stopped posting so I can't rub it in their faces.

You could still collect all their posts into one post and turn it into a wall of shame

I agree with this.  If TruckOSaurus can't rub it in their faces, then at least we can all appreciate their ridiculousness together.

Stuart23 said:

The first pages of this thread gives me a strong "Pre-launch Switch prediction thread" feeling. What makes it hilarious is that this thread was made in 2020.

Did people really thought the Switch hardware would start decreasing the year we would get the first mainline Animal Crossing in freaking 7 years?

To be fair, I don't think anyone though Animal Crossing would be THIS BIG of a release.  I've been predicting that Switch would be the #1 selling system of all time for years now, but I never remotely imagined Animal Crossing would be on track to be Switch's top selling game.  For all we know AC has already outsold Mario Kart.  (We'll have to wait for Nintendo's Q3 report to find out.) 

Nintendo even releases Mario Kart bundles sometimes.  Animal Crossing doesn't care.  Animal Crossing doesn't give a shit.  Animal Crossing is the honey badger of video game sales.