Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; Week 31; Adjustments, Breakdowns, and Estimations

Just posted the latest numbers for Week 16. The PS4 obviously had its drop after the launch of FFVII Remake, but it held well enough to have a pretty good week. (Wish I could say the same the game itself. 90% drop... Ouch.)
The Switch managed to pick it up from last week's severe drop, which indicated some new stock. With Nintendo announcing they intended to have a 10% increase an Switch manufacturing, let's see how that effects sales moving forward.
The Xbox One also had a modest increase from last week, which is a bit surprising. Did it have a sale? What could have caused it. Not quite sure.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

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So XBOX ONE is on track to reaching at least 3M this year (and with this small drop off YOY I believe it has a chance to hit even 4M total for the year).
Everyone didn't believe this when the predictions were made for this year sales, but look at now, 3 full months in and xbox one has 1M units sold, with the summer 2M and with the autumn and the christmas period I think it can reach 4M, as opposite as everyone said in december/january that xbox one would struggle to even reach 3M.
XBOX ONE is getting to 50M lifetime sales now for sure.

For PS4 if they don't make pricecut I see it at 10M total for the year, however with a good 50 maybe 100$ pricecut and good bundles it can hit 12-13M I think.

Switch is on streak cool! I didn't though it would be so up YOY this year. If it continues with these numbers it can get to 25M total sales this year.



Just added Week 17 numbers per the latest update.
The PS4 continues to be up YoY this week, extending its streak to 3 weeks. Final Fantasy VII Remake is proving to have a longer effect than I thought after that massive drop from launch. Let's see how much longer it lasts.
The Xbox One extends its streak to 2 weeks and we'll see how long it lasts.
The Nintendo Switch got fresh stock this week and it most certainly shows. In one fell swoop, it has completely erased the deficit of the prior two weeks. It seems that their stock issues are being sorted in Japan, however, the rest of the world remains to be seen.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

After -950,000 print for the first nine weeks, the PS4 is only down an additional -223,000 the following eight, that is pretty good, not ideal, but good.



PAOerfulone said:
Just added Week 17 numbers per the latest update.
The PS4 continues to be up YoY this week, extending its streak to 3 weeks. Final Fantasy VII Remake is proving to have a longer effect than I thought after that massive drop from launch. Let's see how much longer it lasts.
The Xbox One extends its streak to 2 weeks and we'll see how long it lasts.
The Nintendo Switch got fresh stock this week and it most certainly shows. In one fell swoop, it has completely erased the deficit of the prior two weeks. It seems that their stock issues are being sorted in Japan, however, the rest of the world remains to be seen.

Nice work on keeping this updated. As the one who updates the hardware figures every week and writes the sales figures I know how time consuming it can be. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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PAOerfulone said:
Just added Week 17 numbers per the latest update.
The PS4 continues to be up YoY this week, extending its streak to 3 weeks. Final Fantasy VII Remake is proving to have a longer effect than I thought after that massive drop from launch. Let's see how much longer it lasts.
The Xbox One extends its streak to 2 weeks and we'll see how long it lasts.
The Nintendo Switch got fresh stock this week and it most certainly shows. In one fell swoop, it has completely erased the deficit of the prior two weeks. It seems that their stock issues are being sorted in Japan, however, the rest of the world remains to be seen.

I'm fairly sure the current boost is much more due to Covid-19 Lockdowns than due to FF7R.



Brace for adjustments now that the Nintendo quarterly numbers are out.



After an extended waiting period, Weeks 18 and 19 have finally been posted and added to the comparison chart. Furthermore, adjustments were made for all three systems, dating back Black Friday. As a result, all three systems have been adjusted up. The Nintendo Switch is now up by close to 2.5 million. The deficits for the PS4 and Xbox One have also dropped. Only by week 18 has the PS4 dropped below 1 million, YoY. While the Xbox One is just barely down, almost flat, YoY. Combination of the quarantine + Animal Crossing for the Switch and FFVII Remake for the PS4.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

Now that just past the latest FY reports for Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo and adjustments were made. I decided to do a few calculations.

At this same point last year, the PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch sold through 32.42731507%, 24.04823524%, and 23.04617186% of their 2019 yearly sales respectively.
If all of those percentages were to hold for this year, then the final 2020 totals would be as follows:
PlayStation 4: 11,116,298 units
Xbox One: 4,762,611 units
Nintendo Switch: 30,016,213 units.

Obviously, there is no way in hell 30 million is happening for the Switch. Animal Crossing momentum may be strong, but it ain't THAT strong! Plus, with the only game for the 2nd half of this year being Paper Mario: The Origami King, and no hardware revisions or price cuts in the works, it's not looking like the 2nd half of 2020 will be as strong as the 2nd half of 2019. Obviously, COVID-19 has thrown a monkey wrench into Nintendo's (and everyone else's) plans for this year. So we'll see what exactly they have in store. Since the Paper Mario rumor turned out to be true, there's a better chance that 3D Mario remastered collection may be true as well. I'd imagine they'd have SOMETHING big planned. Regardless, I see 2020 being roughly the same as 2019 in terms of sales. Whether or not it will be the peak year remains to be seen based on their plans.

As for Sony and Microsoft, I also have strong doubts about those projected 2020 totals being that high with the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X scheduled to release this holiday season. With the launch of their next-gen systems, their current gen counterparts are going to see sharp declines in holiday sales from last year. I would expect the PS4 to finish just shy of 10 million and the Xbox One around 3-3.5 million.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

PAOerfulone said:
After an extended waiting period, Weeks 18 and 19 have finally been posted and added to the comparison chart. Furthermore, adjustments were made for all three systems, dating back Black Friday. As a result, all three systems have been adjusted up. The Nintendo Switch is now up by close to 2.5 million. The deficits for the PS4 and Xbox One have also dropped. Only by week 18 has the PS4 dropped below 1 million, YoY. While the Xbox One is just barely down, almost flat, YoY. Combination of the quarantine + Animal Crossing for the Switch and FFVII Remake for the PS4.

Oof, that's a massive lead for the Switch, pretty much 12 weeks, so almost an entire quarter, in front of last year now.

I don't see how this won't be the peak year for the Switch - unless next year would be even bigger. But I seriously doubt that even could be the case without Covid and AC boost.

PAOerfulone said:

Obviously, there is no way in hell 30 million is happening for the Switch. Animal Crossing momentum may be strong, but it ain't THAT strong! Plus, with the only game for the 2nd half of this year being Paper Mario: The Origami King, and no hardware revisions or price cuts in the works, it's not looking like the 2nd half of 2020 will be as strong as the 2nd half of 2019. Obviously, COVID-19 has thrown a monkey wrench into Nintendo's (and everyone else's) plans for this year. So we'll see what exactly they have in store. Since the Paper Mario rumor turned out to be true, there's a better chance that 3D Mario remastered collection may be true as well. I'd imagine they'd have SOMETHING big planned. Regardless, I see 2020 being roughly the same as 2019 in terms of sales. Whether or not it will be the peak year remains to be seen based on their plans.

I expect more of a Mario collection, similar to the All-stars for the SNES, just with all the Super Mario games from NES through Wii U except NSMBU and SMM  since they have already their equivalents on the Switch, the 3DS titles since the latter is still selling, and Super Mario World 2 since that's more a Yoshi than a Mario game and thus probably rather gets into his own collection.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 14 May 2020