Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; Week 26 - HALFWAY THERE!!!

Nu-13 said:
Mbolibombo said:
Yeah I cant see the Switch peak in it's 5th year either.

That would make the Switch be closing in on 100M after not even 5 full years on the market and I cant see that happening.
I'm very confident in 2020 being the peak year though.

The switch will peak in 2020 AND close in on 100m before 5 full years. Those two aren't mutually exclusive.

Well yeah I guess.. let me rephrase then.

I think the Switch will peak in 2020 with a tad over 20 million sold.. let's say 22M if they were to beat that in 2021 it would hit 23M+ and that would leave the Switch at 95M+ at the end of next year and I cant see that happening.. 22M this year and maybe 17-18 next year for a more 'modest' 90M ;P



Around the Network
Mbolibombo said:
Nu-13 said:

The switch will peak in 2020 AND close in on 100m before 5 full years. Those two aren't mutually exclusive.

Well yeah I guess.. let me rephrase then.

I think the Switch will peak in 2020 with a tad over 20 million sold.. let's say 22M if they were to beat that in 2021 it would hit 23M+ and that would leave the Switch at 95M+ at the end of next year and I cant see that happening.. 22M this year and maybe 17-18 next year for a more 'modest' 90M ;P

Your 2020 expectations are too low.



Nu-13 said:
Mbolibombo said:

Well yeah I guess.. let me rephrase then.

I think the Switch will peak in 2020 with a tad over 20 million sold.. let's say 22M if they were to beat that in 2021 it would hit 23M+ and that would leave the Switch at 95M+ at the end of next year and I cant see that happening.. 22M this year and maybe 17-18 next year for a more 'modest' 90M ;P

Your 2020 expectations are too low.

No, I dont think 22M is too low. That would be the highest shipment in a year since the Wii/DS days. 



Mbolibombo said:
Nu-13 said:

Your 2020 expectations are too low.

No, I dont think 22M is too low. That would be the highest shipment in a year since the Wii/DS days. 

Obviously I'm not saying too low for the industry, but as in too low compared to what the numbers are likely to be.



We'll see for this year but it is almost sure it will peak. If Nintendo pushes it enough it could do over 22 millions. But with a price cut and strong lineup I think some people will be surprised at how well it will perform. Its momentum is stronger yoy and that's compared to a 20+ million year... dont think anyone saw that coming and even didnt see it reach 20 millions before like fall. Feels like switch has just been breaking expectations since day 1.

It will be the first console since the Wii/DS to achieve multiple 20+ years. Outstanding.



Around the Network

This is a one horse race until the new consoles come out.



If 2020 becomes the peak year, I see Switch outselling Wii and probably PS1 as well. If people in this thread are right and somehow Switch doesn't peak until next year, it's outselling the Gameboy and PS4 as well.



HylianSwordsman said:
If 2020 becomes the peak year, I see Switch outselling Wii and probably PS1 as well. If people in this thread are right and somehow Switch doesn't peak until next year, it's outselling the Gameboy and PS4 as well.

What's stopping it from peaking this year and outselling ps4 and gameboy?



Nu-13 said:
HylianSwordsman said:
If 2020 becomes the peak year, I see Switch outselling Wii and probably PS1 as well. If people in this thread are right and somehow Switch doesn't peak until next year, it's outselling the Gameboy and PS4 as well.

What's stopping it from peaking this year and outselling ps4 and gameboy?

You mean what's stopping it from peaking next year? Not much, I guess, if the rumors about the upgraded hardware are true. Nintendo just needs to announce some good titles for the holiday season. BotW 2 would probably be enough. Announce that at E3, and you can just imagine the hype when out of nowhere BotW 2 is less than half a year away. I still say it'll be pretty shocking to see it peak in 2021, if only because no Nintendo console has ever peaked in its 5th year, at least for the ones we have data for. Not even the DS did, it barely peaked in its fourth year. Maybe the Game Boy did, but the Game Boy Color felt like an entirely new system, and made the Game Boy last through two console generations, so it was a phenomenon unto itself. Switch repeating that would be a sea change for the gaming market, drawing a clear line in the sand of the point where Nintendo went from being the secondary console you own in addition to your preferred console of Xbox and Playstation, to being the preferred console with PS and Xbox being the secondary choice. Not just a portable supplement to home console gaming like Game Boy and DS were, but the primary experience, the only apt comparison being the first two Playstations. Even if you feel you can predict it, it still feels pretty astounding.

Let's say Switch ends up 20% this year, and another 20% in a hypothetical 2021 peak year. That would be 24.25 million this year, and 29 million for the peak. That's DS numbers, it would be less than a million shy of DS' peak at that point. If it peaked in its 4th year, that would match PS4, but since Nintendo consoles tend to decline faster than the other big platforms, it would probably come up short. If it peaks in 2021, it could do a typical Nintendo decline and still end up past PS4's likely lifetime sales by the end of its sixth year. It would have a non-zero chance of passing the DS or PS2, but I'd probably estimate about 135 million.

Now if you're asking what's stopping it from outselling the PS4 and Game Boy even if it does peak this year, well nothing, aside from past data for past Nintendo consoles. Which to me means nothing's stopping it per se, but I still wouldn't bet on it.



HylianSwordsman said:
Nu-13 said:

What's stopping it from peaking this year and outselling ps4 and gameboy?

You mean what's stopping it from peaking next year? Not much, I guess, if the rumors about the upgraded hardware are true. Nintendo just needs to announce some good titles for the holiday season. BotW 2 would probably be enough. Announce that at E3, and you can just imagine the hype when out of nowhere BotW 2 is less than half a year away. I still say it'll be pretty shocking to see it peak in 2021, if only because no Nintendo console has ever peaked in its 5th year, at least for the ones we have data for. Not even the DS did, it barely peaked in its fourth year. Maybe the Game Boy did, but the Game Boy Color felt like an entirely new system, and made the Game Boy last through two console generations, so it was a phenomenon unto itself. Switch repeating that would be a sea change for the gaming market, drawing a clear line in the sand of the point where Nintendo went from being the secondary console you own in addition to your preferred console of Xbox and Playstation, to being the preferred console with PS and Xbox being the secondary choice. Not just a portable supplement to home console gaming like Game Boy and DS were, but the primary experience, the only apt comparison being the first two Playstations. Even if you feel you can predict it, it still feels pretty astounding.

Let's say Switch ends up 20% this year, and another 20% in a hypothetical 2021 peak year. That would be 24.25 million this year, and 29 million for the peak. That's DS numbers, it would be less than a million shy of DS' peak at that point. If it peaked in its 4th year, that would match PS4, but since Nintendo consoles tend to decline faster than the other big platforms, it would probably come up short. If it peaks in 2021, it could do a typical Nintendo decline and still end up past PS4's likely lifetime sales by the end of its sixth year. It would have a non-zero chance of passing the DS or PS2, but I'd probably estimate about 135 million.

Now if you're asking what's stopping it from outselling the PS4 and Game Boy even if it does peak this year, well nothing, aside from past data for past Nintendo consoles. Which to me means nothing's stopping it per se, but I still wouldn't bet on it.

The hell? The question was so simple. You say the switch needs to peak next year in order to beat ps4 and gameboy. Why? Looking at the numbers, there's nothing in the way of switch peaking in 2020 and beating the ps4 and gameboy.