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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; WEEK FIFTY-THREE!! GAME! SET! MATCH!

Week 27 numbers have just been added.
The Xbox One and Switch continue to add to their lead. The PS4 falls just a little bit further, but all three systems continue to sell incredibly well.

June NPD should be around the corner. And not too long after that, official shipment updates for the first quarter of the fiscal year. We’ll see how that affects the numbers for the last 5 weeks and what adjustments will be made. Something tells me that Last of Us 2 may have a few things to say about the PS4 numbers.



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That's Crazy for the Nintendo Switch



I mean the Switch sell more than the Wii U in christmas periode



Bofferbrauer2 said:
padib said:

Nah, it doesn't work like that. The 3DS and WiiU are outliers in that they are consoles with sever design flaws which hampered sales. The WiiU is the most obvious one, it's popularity was at an all-time low and was essentially a failure, even admitted so by Reggie after he retired (in other words of course).

No the reality is a mix of what you're saying and the potential of Nintendo consoles, when they are properly designed, and the sales potential of their IPs. The idea is that the handheld and home console line were capable of selling much more, but that the consoles that sold less did so due to a design problem or due to increased competition. Let me prove it:

  • SNES: Did not enjoy the monopoly that Nintendo had with the NES. The reasons for this you can research I won't do an exposé.
  • GBA: Same idea as the SNES, with competition from Bandai (Wonderswan Color) and Sony (PSP, at the tail end of the GBA).
  • N64: lost the support of many top-tier developers, and their series main entries, due to choosing a cartridge-based format
  • GC: Chose a custom mini-DVD format, and the purple lunch-box design alienated gamers who prefered the PS or Xbox brands. The PS2 was also the follow-up to the most popular console of the previous gen, and had all the big 3rd party exclusives at the time. The GC launced some controversial sequels (Zelda:WW, Mario Sunshine)
  • WiiU: Suffered from aweful identity issues (was it a Wii, was it a U, was it a tablet), and severe design issues (battery life on tablet, not being able to play on the go, confusion with only 1 tablet allowed per WiiU, etc.)
  • 3DS: Suffered from a serious design flaw in the 3D screen, forcing Nintendo to produce a version free of 3D. But the damage had been done.

The consoles that worked:

  • NES: Perfect design at the time, and great focus on hand-picked quality titles that made the library top-notch (in contrast with the crumbled ruins of the gaming industry just prior)
  • Wii: Lightning in a bottle. The motion controls made a lot of noise, the game launched with Twilight Princess, the highly awaited successor to OoT, and the virtual console (novel at the time) allowed people to dive back into NES classics (yes the NES that is in this same list)
  • DS: Same idea as the wii, but with a stylus-enabled dual-screen setup instead of motion controls. The DSLite was a bombshell.
  • Gameboy: Same as the NES, but portable! So even better

So, well guess what. The Switch fits in list #2.

What does that mean? It means that the Switch is not only a sexy bombshell, but it also has the benefit of a combined library. Which means it has the potential to sell over 200m units in its lifetime. Proof of this is in the huge boost in sales of series like Animal Crossing, Smash and Mario Kart as compared to past generations. Games that used to sell 10m now sell 20m (Smash). Games that used to sell 8m now sell 17m (BotW).

I removed everything else because I agreed with almost everything.

Wait,wait, wait, the GBA didn't work?

GBA was a great success. It just got cut short as Nintendo panicked when Sony announced their PSP and rushed to release the DS. GBA wasn't killed by lack of success, but simply bad timing, meaning it got severely cut short. It was only on the market for 3.5 years before it's successor, the DS, came out.

Also, your assessment of the SNES is flawed in a myopic way. The NES had never had a monopoly either in the first place (it didn't have much to fear in the US or Japan, but fierce competition in Europe with the Sega Master System), but saying the SNES didn't work because it had competition is like saying the only reason why the PS3 only sold 80M would be because the 360 existed, excluding all it's other blunders. SNES did work, but just looking from a purely north american standpoint can make you easily think it was underwhelming in terms of sales, excluding several factors along the way.

Also, to get back on the NES, the videogame market only crashed in North America, it stayed very healthy in Europe and Japan. I mean, that's the very reason why Nintendo even could start selling the NES in the US in the first place, because their videogame market didn't crash.

Considers profitwise only fails, Nintendo has Wiiu and Virtual Boy. When considers market penetration, SNES , 3DS and N64 lost market ground and 3DS have to bleed money to works, in the first moment. GBA is not a fail, it's cut short as Nintendo focus in Disruptive System against Sony handheld. GBA is not a good portable fit against Sony powerhouse because is the same formula, more power and minor innovations. Sony handheld is a better product in same league. DS have another focus: new gameplay, brings ex-players and then new public. 



(Sees discussions about Switch sales in Europe + Famitsu threads)

Hmmm.... this gives me an idea...



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(Edits first three posts.)

...Yep, I think this is gonna work! >:)



PAOerfulone said:
(Edits first three posts.)

...Yep, I think this is gonna work! >:)

I love what you did there, great work!



Aaaaaaand DONE!

Phew, that took longer than I thought it would. But I think the end result was worth it.

I came up with this idea a few days ago after skimming through the Famitsu threads (thanks Rol), and reading the thread about the Switch's potential in Europe. I thought, "hmmmm, we know how the systems are doing overall, but what about all the pieces that make up the puzzle?"

So, after looking through the past data from the "Hardware-by-Date" section and A LOT of math, I finally put together my latest addition to the thread:

REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS!!!

Now, in addition to the worldwide numbers, we can now see how all three systems are performing in all 3 major regions: The United States, Europe, and Japan, as well as the numbers made up from other regions (Rest of the World).

This way, we get a better understanding of the bigger picture and see just where the spikes or drops in sales week over week are taking place, as well as year over year.
For example: with the PlayStation 4, we can see that it's currently up YoY in the United States and Europe, the system's two strongest regions. However, it is down YoY in Japan and the Rest of the World, and the deficit between these two regions is greater than the lead in the U.S. and Europe, which is why the PS4 is slighty down overall worldwide.

Another thing I feel this addition highlights is just how much the other regions throughout the rest of the world make up sales in comparison to the three major regions. Like how the combined sales of the smaller regions account for a considerable percentage of PS4 sales; Or how sales in the small regions are actually not too far behind sales in Japan for the Switch; Or how the holiday season can effect sales from these regions compared to the main three.

(We also, get to see just how truly pathetic the situation for Microsoft is in Japan... Seriously, why do they even bother?)

So, moving forward, in addition to updating the thread with the new worldwide numbers that come in like I have been doing, I will also be adding the new numbers for each region individually as well.

Let me know what you guys think.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 14 July 2020

It's really a great thing you did there. I just hope you don't get overwhelmed when sales adjustments come in as you'll have much more data points to adapt now.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
It's really a great thing you did there. I just hope you don't get overwhelmed when sales adjustments come in as you'll have much more data points to adapt now.

That was definitely a concern I thought about. Though, if I just pace myself and set aside the workload for various intervals, I'll be fine. 

Your concern is very much appreciated as well! :)