Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; Weeks 21 Numbers Added

Bofferbrauer2 said:
PAOerfulone said:
After an extended waiting period, Weeks 18 and 19 have finally been posted and added to the comparison chart. Furthermore, adjustments were made for all three systems, dating back Black Friday. As a result, all three systems have been adjusted up. The Nintendo Switch is now up by close to 2.5 million. The deficits for the PS4 and Xbox One have also dropped. Only by week 18 has the PS4 dropped below 1 million, YoY. While the Xbox One is just barely down, almost flat, YoY. Combination of the quarantine + Animal Crossing for the Switch and FFVII Remake for the PS4.

Oof, that's a massive lead for the Switch, pretty much 12 weeks, so almost an entire quarter, in front of last year now.

I don't see how this won't be the peak year for the Switch - unless next year would be even bigger. But I seriously doubt that even could be the case without Covid and AC boost.

PAOerfulone said:

Obviously, there is no way in hell 30 million is happening for the Switch. Animal Crossing momentum may be strong, but it ain't THAT strong! Plus, with the only game for the 2nd half of this year being Paper Mario: The Origami King, and no hardware revisions or price cuts in the works, it's not looking like the 2nd half of 2020 will be as strong as the 2nd half of 2019. Obviously, COVID-19 has thrown a monkey wrench into Nintendo's (and everyone else's) plans for this year. So we'll see what exactly they have in store. Since the Paper Mario rumor turned out to be true, there's a better chance that 3D Mario remastered collection may be true as well. I'd imagine they'd have SOMETHING big planned. Regardless, I see 2020 being roughly the same as 2019 in terms of sales. Whether or not it will be the peak year remains to be seen based on their plans.

I expect more of a Mario collection, similar to the All-stars for the SNES, just with all the Super Mario games from NES through Wii U except NSMBU and SMM  since they have already their equivalents on the Switch, the 3DS titles since the latter is still selling, and Super Mario World 2 since that's more a Yoshi than a Mario game and thus probably rather gets into his own collection.

Those were remasters though.



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JWeinCom said:
I feel I must defend Paper Mario 2. Fun story (best in the series after TTYD) and unique gameplay that blended exploration with classic Mario platforming. It didn't always work perfectly, but that's what happens when you try out new ideas, and for the most part it worked.

SpokenTruth said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Oof, that's a massive lead for the Switch, pretty much 12 weeks, so almost an entire quarter, in front of last year now.

I don't see how this won't be the peak year for the Switch - unless next year would be even bigger. But I seriously doubt that even could be the case without Covid and AC boost.

I expect more of a Mario collection, similar to the All-stars for the SNES, just with all the Super Mario games from NES through Wii U except NSMBU and SMM  since they have already their equivalents on the Switch, the 3DS titles since the latter is still selling, and Super Mario World 2 since that's more a Yoshi than a Mario game and thus probably rather gets into his own collection.

Those were remasters though.

True, but I don't see a point in remastering many of the older titles. Even Super Mario Galaxy would still look rather bad on the Switch unless given some brand new assets, upscaling the textures just ain't enough for pre-Wii U titles without an unique art style like Wind Waker.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
JWeinCom said:
I feel I must defend Paper Mario 2. Fun story (best in the series after TTYD) and unique gameplay that blended exploration with classic Mario platforming. It didn't always work perfectly, but that's what happens when you try out new ideas, and for the most part it worked.

SpokenTruth said:

Those were remasters though.

True, but I don't see a point in remastering many of the older titles. Even Super Mario Galaxy would still look rather bad on the Switch unless given some brand new assets, upscaling the textures just ain't enough for pre-Wii U titles without an unique art style like Wind Waker.

What I'm saying is that Mario Bros 1 - 3 did get new assets.  It wasn't just upscaled textures.   If a new Mario collection that the same treatment as Mario All Stars did, then even the Galaxy series would get new assets.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

True, but I don't see a point in remastering many of the older titles. Even Super Mario Galaxy would still look rather bad on the Switch unless given some brand new assets, upscaling the textures just ain't enough for pre-Wii U titles without an unique art style like Wind Waker.

What I'm saying is that Mario Bros 1 - 3 did get new assets.  It wasn't just upscaled textures.   If a new Mario collection that the same treatment as Mario All Stars did, then even the Galaxy series would get new assets.

Getting new assets was pretty easy 30 years ago, but these days that would be much more time consuming and barely worth the effort as all in all it costs almost as much as simply making new game. There's a reason why that is almost never done.

Then again, Mario is so popular that Nintendo could pull it off.



PAOerfulone said:
Now that just past the latest FY reports for Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo and adjustments were made. I decided to do a few calculations.

At this same point last year, the PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch sold through 32.42731507%, 24.04823524%, and 23.04617186% of their 2019 yearly sales respectively.
If all of those percentages were to hold for this year, then the final 2020 totals would be as follows:
PlayStation 4: 11,116,298 units
Xbox One: 4,762,611 units
Nintendo Switch: 30,016,213 units.

Obviously, there is no way in hell 30 million is happening for the Switch. Animal Crossing momentum may be strong, but it ain't THAT strong! Plus, with the only game for the 2nd half of this year being Paper Mario: The Origami King, and no hardware revisions or price cuts in the works, it's not looking like the 2nd half of 2020 will be as strong as the 2nd half of 2019. Obviously, COVID-19 has thrown a monkey wrench into Nintendo's (and everyone else's) plans for this year. So we'll see what exactly they have in store. Since the Paper Mario rumor turned out to be true, there's a better chance that 3D Mario remastered collection may be true as well. I'd imagine they'd have SOMETHING big planned. Regardless, I see 2020 being roughly the same as 2019 in terms of sales. Whether or not it will be the peak year remains to be seen based on their plans.

As for Sony and Microsoft, I also have strong doubts about those projected 2020 totals being that high with the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X scheduled to release this holiday season. With the launch of their next-gen systems, their current gen counterparts are going to see sharp declines in holiday sales from last year. I would expect the PS4 to finish just shy of 10 million and the Xbox One around 3-3.5 million.

I don't think Paper Mario is the only game left to release this year on Switch.  If it was, they would never release it in July without a direct or anything.  Actually a July release for Paper Mario shows Nintendo has got plenty more games coming.  So, I agree 30m sales for Switch is too optimistic, but assuming flat sales YoY is too pessimistic.

Based on what limited knowledge we have about the rest of the year, I'd project something like this:

-Switch sales are currently up 56% YoY, and before Animal Crossing released they were up 18% YoY.
-Last year Switch Lite released week 38.  Total sales just before that (week 37) were 8,199,543.  Total sales for 2019 were 19,278,543.  Difference is 11,078,995.  They basically sold 11m from Switch Lite release to the end of the year.
-Low end estimate is they are up 18% until week 37 and then flat YoY after that = 20.8m
-High end estimate is they are up 56% until week 37 and then flat YoY after that = 23.9m

So, current estimate is they are going to sell 21m - 24m.  That takes into account Switch's strong finish in 2019 without erasing the huge lead and momentum they already have due to Animal Crossing plus being up YoY before Animal Crossing released.



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Week 20 + NPD release adjustments should help everything pop. NSW is now up 3.7M YoY lol.

Last edited by mk7sx - on 22 May 2020

So with the new adjustments .. when I said last year that there will be little to no decrease at PS4 and XB1, now I maybe on the right track .. with the new numbers PS4 have to be around flat with 2019 and XB1 even a little up .. and yes we have more month to go, and yes there is big chance of drop off however because of the 5 months flat sales there is chance also the flat sales to continue .. and even if they do worse it will be a little worse not by much ..

So my expectations then were around 12-14M (and even maybe 15M if PS4 get price cut) for the year total, and around 4M for XB1, so I still stand behind those predictions .. I think PS4 can easily reach 12-13M this year and if lucky, and if pricecut is done maybe 14 to 15M at max, despite PS5 (which will not take PS4 sales because the new console will be at least 500$ maybe even 600$, and PS4 at worst will be 299 and with the normal holidays temporary pricecut - 250$). For all of those predicting 10M at the end of the last year - guess what, it ain't gonna happen. With almost 5M sold through the middle of may there is no chance PS4 is doing only 10M total .. 12M at worst case scenario.

XB1 is getting 4M. For sure! If they make those temporary pricecuts that are now 299$ for the X and maybe 199$ for the normal one I can see them even reaching 5M again.

As for the switch, very good sales, congratulations. It can go 25M this year. or 20M at worst.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 22 May 2020

yo33331 said:

So with the new adjustments .. when I said last year that there will be little to no decrease at PS4 and XB1, now I maybe on the right track .. with the new numbers PS4 have to be around flat with 2019 and XB1 even a little up .. and yes we have more month to go, and yes there is big chance of drop off however because of the 5 months flat sales there is chance also the flat sales to continue .. and even if they do worse it will be a little worse not by much ..

So my expectations then were around 12-14M (and even maybe 15M if PS4 get price cut) for the year total, and around 4M for XB1, so I still stand behind those predictions .. I think PS4 can easily reach 12-13M this year and if lucky, and if pricecut is done maybe 14 to 15M at max, despite PS5 (which will not take PS4 sales because the new console will be at least 500$ maybe even 600$, and PS4 at worst will be 299 and with the normal holidays temporary pricecut - 250$). For all of those predicting 10M at the end of the last year - guess what, it ain't gonna happen. With almost 5M sold through the middle of may there is no chance PS4 is doing only 10M total .. 12M at worst case scenario.

XB1 is getting 4M. For sure! If they make those temporary pricecuts that are now 299$ for the X and maybe 199$ for the normal one I can see them even reaching 5M again.

As for the switch, very good sales, congratulations. It can go 25M this year. or 20M at worst.

Right now we have PS4 sales down ~4% for 2020, Xbox One up ~30% and Switch up ~80%



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
yo33331 said:

So with the new adjustments .. when I said last year that there will be little to no decrease at PS4 and XB1, now I maybe on the right track .. with the new numbers PS4 have to be around flat with 2019 and XB1 even a little up .. and yes we have more month to go, and yes there is big chance of drop off however because of the 5 months flat sales there is chance also the flat sales to continue .. and even if they do worse it will be a little worse not by much ..

So my expectations then were around 12-14M (and even maybe 15M if PS4 get price cut) for the year total, and around 4M for XB1, so I still stand behind those predictions .. I think PS4 can easily reach 12-13M this year and if lucky, and if pricecut is done maybe 14 to 15M at max, despite PS5 (which will not take PS4 sales because the new console will be at least 500$ maybe even 600$, and PS4 at worst will be 299 and with the normal holidays temporary pricecut - 250$). For all of those predicting 10M at the end of the last year - guess what, it ain't gonna happen. With almost 5M sold through the middle of may there is no chance PS4 is doing only 10M total .. 12M at worst case scenario.

XB1 is getting 4M. For sure! If they make those temporary pricecuts that are now 299$ for the X and maybe 199$ for the normal one I can see them even reaching 5M again.

As for the switch, very good sales, congratulations. It can go 25M this year. or 20M at worst.

Right now we have PS4 sales down ~4% for 2020, Xbox One up ~30% and Switch up ~80%

So you're saying Switch is now about the same level the Switch was last year... shortly before the Lite came out in September??? That is absolutely bonkers!



So PS4 went from 40% down to only 4%? Damm that’s spectacular considering it’s age and still $299/399.

With the TLOU2, GOT and a possibly price cut now I can the see PS4 doing around 12-14 millions for this year.