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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; WEEK FIFTY-THREE!! GAME! SET! MATCH!

dmillos said:
RolStoppable said:

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/nintendo-historical-shipment-data-1983-present.701305/

Here's something to work with. You'll have to put pieces together in order to get global sales.

Wow!

Thank you @RolStoppable !

Thank you for sharing this data with me. It took me a little while, but I think it has some cool information. 

Regarding the conversation we are having about Nintendo Legs, there are two consoles here that are amazing, the NES and the Gameboy. Both have a little bit of an asterix besides them, but in any way both of them sold a lot, for a long time!

I see you are doing a lot of analysis of the data, especially what percentage of sales come during a system's 2nd 60 months.  I would ask that you look at the year each of these systems had their sales peak.  I think you will find a strong correlation here.  The systems that peak later tend to have a greater % of sales in the second 60 months.

I am saying this because Switch is obviously peaking later than most Nintendo systems.  If Switch is peaking this year, then we can still expect a large % of sales to be in the second 60 months.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:

I see you are doing a lot of analysis of the data, especially what percentage of sales come during a system's 2nd 60 months.  I would ask that you look at the year each of these systems had their sales peak.  I think you will find a strong correlation here.  The systems that peak later tend to have a greater % of sales in the second 60 months.

I am saying this because Switch is obviously peaking later than most Nintendo systems.  If Switch is peaking this year, then we can still expect a large % of sales to be in the second 60 months.

Hi @The_Liquid_Laser Thank you for your idea, it is definitely fun to look at all these different angles, here is the same chart but with the peak years:

A few things to highlight are:

1) GBA had its peak year on year 4 but it still sold much less in the second half. I checked that out and it coincides with the release of the DS on its year 5. 

2)PS4 should be able to climb up this list , even with a slight chance to catch up to X360 and maybe even DS.

3)XONE probably won't reach the 3DS, and the 3DS peaked on its first 12 months.  

4)I still want to know how did the N64 peak so early! I would love it if anyone has sales data for Playstation and Sega consoles. 

5) With regards to the switch, if this is its peak year, and it has similar second half than year 4 consoles, then it should sell about 30 million plus what it sells in 2021, so the end total should be near 130 million.

Here is where I think that it is important to not look at data to predict but rather to question. This was an unprecedented year, the switch is in new territory with it being the only console nintendo is focusing on. It is probable that this ends up being the NS peak year, it increased over 40% from last year. But this doesn't really mean it is going to behave like other consoles did. 

Personally I think the NS should easily be second place on this table.

6) Another extremely important factor that really is not seen here... But maybe I should look into adding it. Is when a new console got released, There are two reasons a console has poor second half. The first is that it simply peaks early like the WiiU, but the second is that a new Console is released like the GBA or even the DS.



yo33331 said:

You forget about the PS2.

The PS2 had the best second even third life

PS2 after it's first 60 months (after march of 2005) sold around 60-70M units way higher than DS or any other system.

And also which other system will sell almost as much its successors in the successors lifetime ? a.k.a. 360 and PS3 in 2005-2013 ? No one.

Hi @yo33331 Thank you for this information, I would love to see more data from Playstation and Sega, Do you happen to have these sales numbers? I would gladly add them to this list.

If you look at the graph, the Gameboy sold almost 90 million units in it's second life, so it seems like it could potentially be higher than the PS2. But like I mentioned before this is a bit fussy due to the fact that the Gameboy Color is being merged with the Gameboy. 

Also the Wii seems like it was very similar in regards of selling more than its successor during the second life (but that is like cheating because the WiiU sold horrible amounts).

And witht the gameboy asterisk, it sold way way more than the GBA did, According to this chart it sold nearly 90 million in its second life while the GBA sold 22 million in total.

Anyways, thanks for pointing this out, I am sad that there is not that much data on older consoles as it would make it a lot of fun to compare them.



I think a console lifespan of eight years (so 4 years each in first and second half) would be more accurate. Consoles that are relevant to the market for ten years are exceptions rather than typical. That said, great data and I loved reading the analysis on it. Thanks!



psychicscubadiver said:

I think a console lifespan of eight years (so 4 years each in first and second half) would be more accurate. Consoles that are relevant to the market for ten years are exceptions rather than typical. That said, great data and I loved reading the analysis on it. Thanks!

Hi @psychicscubadiver

I agree that 10 years is a lot for most consoles, especially if you consider good selling years, my idea is not try and split sales in two halves, but rather to have the strong first years compared to the end, what you could consider having good legs. 

Most consoles peak between year 4 and 5, so I understand why you would want to compare the first 4 years. I did the change and it seems like it is very interesting, specially because you see how X360 and PS3 sold more after year 4. 

Good idea, it might be better to view it this way. There is no real correct way to analyze it, so seeing things from different perspectives is always fun.



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dmillos said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I see you are doing a lot of analysis of the data, especially what percentage of sales come during a system's 2nd 60 months.  I would ask that you look at the year each of these systems had their sales peak.  I think you will find a strong correlation here.  The systems that peak later tend to have a greater % of sales in the second 60 months.

I am saying this because Switch is obviously peaking later than most Nintendo systems.  If Switch is peaking this year, then we can still expect a large % of sales to be in the second 60 months.

Hi @The_Liquid_Laser Thank you for your idea, it is definitely fun to look at all these different angles, here is the same chart but with the peak years: