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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; WEEK FIFTY-THREE!! GAME! SET! MATCH!

Mar1217 said:

Even with the stalemate the Switch has relatively reached. I think ending up around 28M-29M is an amazing feat for any consoles nowadays. Especially for a Nintendo console since historically were more front-loaded and never seemed to reach much in the later years. Switch is on the way to rectify this statement prolly do just as well in fifth year too !

The DS sold much more than any PS in its fourth and fifth year on the market, so the whole conventional wisdom about Nintendo consoles is based on cherry-picking and convenient omission of facts.

The plus side of this is that masses of gamers run into fallacies and make everyone who cares about historical data look incredibly smart, because predictions are very different when they are based on fiction on one side and facts on the other side.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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RolStoppable said:
Mar1217 said:

Even with the stalemate the Switch has relatively reached. I think ending up around 28M-29M is an amazing feat for any consoles nowadays. Especially for a Nintendo console since historically were more front-loaded and never seemed to reach much in the later years. Switch is on the way to rectify this statement prolly do just as well in fifth year too !

The DS sold much more than any PS in its fourth and fifth year on the market, so the whole conventional wisdom about Nintendo consoles is based on cherry-picking and convenient omission of facts.

The plus side of this is that masses of gamers run into fallacies and make everyone who cares about historical data look incredibly smart, because predictions are very different when they are based on fiction on one side and facts on the other side.

I should've specified that I meant Home console in my post, yet I know the fact that Switch is an hybrid means it can cather to multiple markets at once which amplify the possibilities and can't be taken into straight comparison with it's predecessor  but otherwise I agree with your post.

Still, I think the Switch specially is an outlier of sort when looking at historical data for most Nintendo consoles. Just like the DS once they released the DS Lite. Though if these results persist during the next iteration of whatever Nintendo does, then I'll be glad to call it a new norm.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Mar1217 said:

Even with the stalemate the Switch has relatively reached. I think ending up around 28M-29M is an amazing feat for any consoles nowadays. Especially for a Nintendo console since historically were more front-loaded and never seemed to reach much in the later years. Switch is on the way to rectify this statement prolly do just as well in fifth year too !

@Mar1217 I agree with you, whatever the switch ends up making this year can only be considered an outstanding result. It is going to be over 40% growth from it's previous year, something that as far as I can tell, no other console has done so in it's fourth year of release (months 37-48). In the chart below you will see how much each console grew from year 3 to year 4. Also you see how much the switch would need to sell in order to match such growth. Basically it only has the PS3 to pass.

It is true that Many nintendo consoles on vgchartz show that they have poor legs, I wish we could see how older consoles did, but it seems likely that it was similar to what happened with the 3ds or the wii. Having said that. the DS is a big exception, as it sold more than any other console (at least the ones we have data on) during the second half of its life cycle. I don't see any reason to believe that the switch will have the future of most nintendo consoles. It should be closer to what the DS did than to what the Wii did. Here is a chart comparing first and second halves of each console based on months released:

WiiU barely made it to the "Second Half"



Mar1217 said:

I should've specified that I meant Home console in my post, yet I know the fact that Switch is an hybrid means it can cather to multiple markets at once which amplify the possibilities and can't be taken into straight comparison with it's predecessor  but otherwise I agree with your post.

Still, I think the Switch specially is an outlier of sort when looking at historical data for most Nintendo consoles. Just like the DS once they released the DS Lite. Though if these results persist during the next iteration of whatever Nintendo does, then I'll be glad to call it a new norm.

Sorry, it took me so long to write my post that I didn't see that you meant home consoles. Still, as far as we can tell, only the DS had strong legs. Maybe it was different with older consoles, It is tough to make a statement with over half of the consoles missing from the data.



dmillos said:
Mar1217 said:

Even with the stalemate the Switch has relatively reached. I think ending up around 28M-29M is an amazing feat for any consoles nowadays. Especially for a Nintendo console since historically were more front-loaded and never seemed to reach much in the later years. Switch is on the way to rectify this statement prolly do just as well in fifth year too !

@Mar1217 I agree with you, whatever the switch ends up making this year can only be considered an outstanding result. It is going to be over 40% growth from it's previous year, something that as far as I can tell, no other console has done so in it's fourth year of release (months 37-48). In the chart below you will see how much each console grew from year 3 to year 4. Also you see how much the switch would need to sell in order to match such growth. Basically it only has the PS3 to pass.

It is true that Many nintendo consoles on vgchartz show that they have poor legs, I wish we could see how older consoles did, but it seems likely that it was similar to what happened with the 3ds or the wii. Having said that. the DS is a big exception, as it sold more than any other console (at least the ones we have data on) during the second half of its life cycle. I don't see any reason to believe that the switch will have the future of most nintendo consoles. It should be closer to what the DS did than to what the Wii did. Here is a chart comparing first and second halves of each console based on months released:

WiiU barely made it to the "Second Half"

We need two things: numbers and context.

Nintendo, since 1989, never has one pipeline for software production. It's new territory here. The transition, from Nintendo perspective, seems hard because needs to take four pipelines ( at the same time), the other company has two or three, in the best-case scenario ( Sony abandons Psvita because of that. Focus in Ps4 is a correct path). And the transition has only two. The long span life for Switch is a focus by Nintendo.  Maybe, with luck, the fifth year may become the top year? The new version, a ton of games, and price reduction of older versions? Let's see. 



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dmillos said:
Mar1217 said:

I should've specified that I meant Home console in my post, yet I know the fact that Switch is an hybrid means it can cather to multiple markets at once which amplify the possibilities and can't be taken into straight comparison with it's predecessor  but otherwise I agree with your post.

Still, I think the Switch specially is an outlier of sort when looking at historical data for most Nintendo consoles. Just like the DS once they released the DS Lite. Though if these results persist during the next iteration of whatever Nintendo does, then I'll be glad to call it a new norm.

Sorry, it took me so long to write my post that I didn't see that you meant home consoles. Still, as far as we can tell, only the DS had strong legs. Maybe it was different with older consoles, It is tough to make a statement with over half of the consoles missing from the data.

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/nintendo-historical-shipment-data-1983-present.701305/

Here's something to work with. You'll have to put pieces together in order to get global sales.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

That Switch is on track to exceed PS4's best year by about 50% is both telling and insane.
By the end of this month, it will probably only need to sell another 50 million for the rest of its lifespan to pass PS4's final sales, which is an average of just 17 million per year for 2021-2023.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Just a quick heads up: I will be out of town for Christmas. These upcoming 5 days, I will be in Dallas, TX, to spend Christmas with my brother, his girlfriend, and their daughter. So, I most likely won't have access to a computer so I can update the tables when the new numbers come in on Thursday. I will certainly try, but I just wanted to let everyone know in case the thread title and OP aren't updated. I should be back by Saturday afternoon and I'll do it then if I don't do it beforehand. Thank you all for your continued interest and support.



dmillos said:
Mar1217 said:

Even with the stalemate the Switch has relatively reached. I think ending up around 28M-29M is an amazing feat for any consoles nowadays. Especially for a Nintendo console since historically were more front-loaded and never seemed to reach much in the later years. Switch is on the way to rectify this statement prolly do just as well in fifth year too !

@Mar1217 I agree with you, whatever the switch ends up making this year can only be considered an outstanding result. It is going to be over 40% growth from it's previous year, something that as far as I can tell, no other console has done so in it's fourth year of release (months 37-48). In the chart below you will see how much each console grew from year 3 to year 4. Also you see how much the switch would need to sell in order to match such growth. Basically it only has the PS3 to pass.

It is true that Many nintendo consoles on vgchartz show that they have poor legs, I wish we could see how older consoles did, but it seems likely that it was similar to what happened with the 3ds or the wii. Having said that. the DS is a big exception, as it sold more than any other console (at least the ones we have data on) during the second half of its life cycle. I don't see any reason to believe that the switch will have the future of most nintendo consoles. It should be closer to what the DS did than to what the Wii did. Here is a chart comparing first and second halves of each console based on months released:

WiiU barely made it to the "Second Half"

You forget about the PS2.

The PS2 had the best second even third life

PS2 after it's first 60 months (after march of 2005) sold around 60-70M units way higher than DS or any other system.

And also which other system will sell almost as much its successors in the successors lifetime ? a.k.a. 360 and PS3 in 2005-2013 ? No one.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 21 December 2020

RolStoppable said:

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/nintendo-historical-shipment-data-1983-present.701305/

Here's something to work with. You'll have to put pieces together in order to get global sales.

Wow!

Thank you @RolStoppable !

Thank you for sharing this data with me. It took me a little while, but I think it has some cool information. 

Regarding the conversation we are having about Nintendo Legs, there are two consoles here that are amazing, the NES and the Gameboy. Both have a little bit of an asterix besides them, but in any way both of them sold a lot, for a long time!

The gameboy sold an insane 3 times more than what it had sold the first 5 years. This one has 2 pieces of key information, the first one, is that these numbers combine the original Gameboy and the Gameboy Color, so a bump is obvious. There is something very important, and that is that the original gameboy had its highest selling year the year before the GBC came out. It was actually increasing in sales. This can easily be explained with the fact that in 1996 Pokemon Red and Blue came out. It is insane how much impact it had in sales. 

Yearly Gameboy units sold

Just to put things in perspective, if the switch would have such growth after year 5, it would sell more than 300 million units....

@Mar1217 Something you might find interesting is how much the NES sold after it's first five years (Actually this is how much it sold after 8 years because it was released much earlier in Japan). Therefore as a console it is a great example of a nintendo console selling well for a long time. 

Now... you will definitely find interesting how poor nintendo home consoles sold after 5 years, percentile wise, 4 of the bottom 5 consoles are nintendo home consoles (Wii, GC, N64, WiiU). 

I find it unbelievable that how bad the N64 sold.... I love that console, with games like SMB64, Mario Kart, Goldeneye, Starfox, Zelda, Mario Party, Waverace (and many others) how did it sell so bad! I just can't imagine how this is possible. 

Anyways, thank you Rol for sharing that link, it is a great insight into the past, obviously it is not like comparing apples with apples, but it gives a general idea.

Last edited by dmillos - on 21 December 2020