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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; WEEK FIFTY-THREE!! GAME! SET! MATCH!

PDiddy said:

Hey, you were bold enough to state it, and even more bold than Tbone! I think in an alternate reality, 40 million could be possible if manufacturing was unaffected by Covid-19, but we must live in the present.

TBH, the only reason why the Switch has a chance of achieving 33 million and why 40 million was even in the discussion in the first place is BECAUSE of Covid. 

The reason why manufacturing was affected so drastically and why shortages were so common across the board throughout the year and still are is because as soon as this pandemic started, everyone rushed out to by all the consoles and video games they could so that they'd have something to occupy themselves AND their kids and keep everyone busy while all this has been happening. 

If there was no Covid, I still think 2020 would be the Switch's peak year. But 33 million? No way in hell.



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PAOerfulone said:
PDiddy said:

Hey, you were bold enough to state it, and even more bold than Tbone! I think in an alternate reality, 40 million could be possible if manufacturing was unaffected by Covid-19, but we must live in the present.

TBH, the only reason why the Switch has a chance of achieving 33 million and why 40 million was even in the discussion in the first place is BECAUSE of Covid. 

The reason why manufacturing was affected so drastically and why shortages were so common across the board throughout the year and still are is because as soon as this pandemic started, everyone rushed out to by all the consoles and video games they could so that they'd have something to occupy themselves AND their kids and keep everyone busy while all this has been happening. 

If there was no Covid, I still think 2020 would be the Switch's peak year. But 33 million? No way in hell.

I don't know if it has been discussed on here and reached a conclusion why Switch is selling gangbusters this year. But their numbers are really shocking to me. If I analyze it is pretty much a bunch of whammys of COVID, PS4/XB1 being in their end stage, Release of the Switch-Lite. How Switch does post-PS5/Series X launch is also very interesting to me. To be honest, I have a Switch myself, but they have zero complying software for 2020. Animal Crossing/Hyrule Warriors is really meh to me. The only title I have looking forward to is BOTW2. 

If Nintendo uses all this console sales and reinvest in themselves, bringing out some new ips, more AAA titles. Then I really applaud them. If they continue to shower us with Paper Mario, Mario Tennis, Mario Danceathon. Then meh, same Nintendo for the past 15 years. 

Last edited by Drakrami - on 27 November 2020

Drakrami said:

I don't know if it has been discussed on here and reached a conclusion why Switch is selling gangbusters this year. But their numbers are really shocking to me. If I analyze it is pretty much a bunch of whammys of COVID, PS4/XB1 being in their end stage, Release of the Switch-Lite. How Switch does post-PS5/Series X launch is also very interesting to me. To be honest, I have a Switch myself, but they have zero complying software for 2020. Animal Crossing/Hyrule Warriors is really meh to me. The only title I have looking forward to is BOTW2. 

If Nintendo uses all this console sales and reinvest in themselves, bringing out some new ips, more AAA titles. Then I really applaud them. If they continue to shower us with Paper Mario, Mario Tennis, Mario Danceathon. Then meh, same Nintendo for the past 15 years. 

If their 2020 lineup doesn't appeal to you, that's fine. I'm sort of 'meh' on Animal Crossing myself. But there's no denying that's it has become a megaton title and a cultural phenomenon. If not for Covid, 2020 would still be the peak year of the Switch primarily because of that game. Plus, some of those late '20-early '21 titles like Hyrule Warriors, Mario 3D World, Deluxe, Bravely Default 2, and Monster Hunter Rise would have all released in 2020 if not for Covid throwing a monkey wrench into their plans. It's just that WITH Covid, Animal Crossing REALLY took off because it was the PERFECT game to have for this type of situation that the world is in. 

"Same Nintendo for the past 15 years."

You mean the same Nintendo for the past 35 years? They ALWAYS reinvests in themselves. They're always trying to bring out new IPs and more AAA titles.

Each and every console generation has seen at least 1 new IP from Nintendo that goes on to have some success. Some of which are still became major franchises in their portfolio that are still big to this day. The NES originals are Mario, Zelda, and Metroid. From there:

4th Generation (SNES): Donkey Kong Country, F-Zero, Earthbound, Star Fox, Fire Emblem

5th Generation (N64, GB/GBC): Smash Bros., Pokémon.

6th Generation (GCN, GBA) Animal Crossing, Pikmin.

7th Generation (Wii, DS) Wii series, Brain Age series, Nintendogs, Tomodachi, Xenoblade Chronicles.

8th Generation (Wii U, 3DS) Splatoon, Kid Icarus Uprising, Nintendo Land.

9th Generation (Switch) ARMS, Ring Fit, Labo.

Not all of them are winners. In fact, Labo is pretty much a dud. But they're always trying to bring something new to the table. Whether it's a new IP they come up with are a collaboration with another studio or 3rd party company that leads to some unique ideas and franchises (Astral Chain, Octopath Traveler, Hyrule Warriors) Of course, they're going to keep continue showing us Mario, Mario Tennis, Mario Sports, Paper Mario, etc., that's their Golden Goose. Their Franchise Player. The Face of the Company. But Nintendo's not a one trick pony. That hasn't stopped them from coming out with all these other franchises and getting behind them and investing in their success as much as they have with that plumber. Now they're even starting to venture outside of video games. They have their Amusement Park with Universal that is supposed to open pretty soon, they've got the Mario movie in production with Illumination. All because they reinvest in themselves.



NSW vs. NDS/Wii Peaks (VG Chartz Data)

Black Friday week is next.  Last year the Switch did just under 1.9M, so 2M looks like a good bet (USA increase alone should carry it over).  Flat for the rest of the year gets us past 28M now, without considering potential November adjustments (NPD release next week).



Quarter 4 performance added to the above chart. Note that 2007 had Black Friday during W47 instead of W48, so NSW appears to be making a run at the record there as well. 2008 had an additional week included in the yearly total, W53 crossing between Dec/Jan with 770K. NSW is ahead of that pace and may also be getting a 53 week count.



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mk7sx said:

Quarter 4 performance added to the above chart. Note that 2007 had Black Friday during W47 instead of W48, so NSW appears to be making a run at the record there as well. 2008 had an additional week included in the yearly total, W53 crossing between Dec/Jan with 770K. NSW is ahead of that pace and may also be getting a 53 week count.

Yes, This year will be a 53 week year for calendars starting days of sunday and monday. The next 53 week year on a calendar where weeks start on sunday is 2025 and 2026 for calendars with weeks starting on monday.



Week 47 Breakdown:

PS4: Down in all regions
Xbox One: Down in all regions
Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions

We are officially in !WEEK 2! of the PS5/XSXS generation, or just Week 47 of the calendar year. And the PS4 and Xbox One remain essentially flat from previous weeks when they would usually trend upwards considerably in anticipation for Black Friday, which will take place next week as @mk7sx has pointed out. Yes, it looks like thanks to their next-gen counterparts, we have now officially reached the Twilight years of our old current gen consoles and Black Friday won't do them manner favors... The Switch on the other hand, is prime and poised to break 2 million units sold next week - Looking to become the first system to do it since the Nintendo DS in Christmas 2009. As well as the first system EVER to do it on Black Friday week. One way or the other, this holiday season promises to be one for the record books.

Calculations -

Based on percentages, the projected final (52-week) totals for 2020 would look as follows for all three systems:

PlayStation 4 - 10,529,816 units (Down from 10,796,262 units)

Xbox One - 4,599,465 units (Down from 4,678,665 units)

Nintendo Switch - 33,313,103 units (Down from 33,654,177 units)

As you can see, the projections are steadily getting lower as we get closer to the finish line. But as @PDiddy pointed out, this year is a 53-WEEK year. Hence why said this was the (52-week) projection. So whatever the projections are in the coming weeks, the actual, final 2020 totals will be slightly higher than those, because 2020 will have an extra week.



The PS4 and Xbox One projections are gonna drop hard after next week. You'll do the PS4 and Xbox One one last time in 2021 before replacing them with the new consoles in 2022 right?



Norion said:

The PS4 and Xbox One projections are gonna drop hard after next week. You'll do the PS4 and Xbox One one last time in 2021 before replacing them with the new consoles in 2022 right?

Not quite. I do plan on keeping the PS4 and Xbox One around in 2021, however, doing a 2020 vs 2021 would be pointless since everyone and their grandmother knows that they're going to be way down from this year, So, it would be rather pointless and quite honestly... boring. Because everyone will want to know about the PS5 and Xbox Series instead. So, I'm going to try something different.

The 2021 thread will be when I officially add the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series to these comparisons rather than 2022. However, since it'll be the first full calendar years on the market for them, I can't really compare them to their prior years since... ATM, they have no prior years. 

So what I am planning is to compare the PS5/XSXS in 2021 to the PS4 and Xbox One's first full year on the market, which was 2014.

The Nintendo Switch comparison will go on as normal: 2020 vs. 2021.

However, the PlayStation and Xbox comparisons will be the PlayStation 4 - 2014 vs. PlayStation 5 - 2021; And the Xbox One - 2014 vs. Xbox Series - 2021, respectively. That way, we'll get to see a couple of things:

1) How well both systems are doing compared to their predecessors.

2) If Microsoft was able to gain some ground on Sony and make this race closer than the last one.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 30 November 2020

With this week's numbers, the Switch's 2020 has officially surpassed the Wii's 2009 with 6 weeks still to go.

The Wii finished 2009 with 21,295,417 million units. The Switch is currently at 21,353,820 units. (+ 58,403 units)