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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; Week 47; Next-Gen Second Week!

PAOerfulone said:
Now that we're officially in Q4 of the calander year (Q3 of the Fiscal Year) or the Holiday Quarter so we all understand, it's time to bust out some calculations.

Through Week 40 of 2019, all three systems sold through the following percentages of their final yearly totals.

Worldwide:
PS4 - 62.18099956%
XBO - 44.71066283%
NSW - 49.65954887%

If those percentages were to hold (highly unlikely in the cases of the PS4 and Xbox One) than they would finish 2020 with these worldwide totals:

PlayStation 4 - 12,288,085 units
Xbox One - 5,037,950 units
Nintendo Switch - 34,100,674 units

As these final 12 weeks unfold, the floor is going to fall out from under the PS4 and Xbox One as we get ever so closer to their next-gen successors, and eventually when they arrive. Hence why I say those percentages are not going to hold for those two. As for the Nintendo Switch, it has no successor launching anytime soon and is selling at monstrous levels while STILL experiencing shortages.
But as of late, supply appears to have been improving for the Switch and Nintendo is beginning to catch up to demand. For one, the Animal Crossing bundle has been restocked and is being sold for $299 on Amazon, and it's currently #3 on the hourly rankings (Still in stock too.) And the regular hybrid SKUs aren't too far behind and both are listed at their retail price. So it seems like supply in the US is catching up to demand. Meanwhile, Japan continues to struggle with finding them in stores.
So, that 34 million number may be possible. If Nintendo ships that much, they're going to sell that much.

That is definitely a monstrous number for Switch.  I really think the key question at this point is how much Nintendo can ship.  It is very competitive for breaking the annual sales record this year, but enough Switches need to be sent out.  I would like to see weekly sales increase before we get to Black Friday.  That would indicate that Nintendo has upped their production and shipping ability.  

It's going to be an exciting holiday season for Switch sales.  That much is certain.



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I think the Switch will obviously do around 30 millions this year. We will be able to make better prediction with the next quarterly reports.
It would be a breath of fresh air to have a new console take the crown as the best selling of all time. Switch would look pretty on that throne.

Nintendo has been expanding a lot this generation. Attraction park, Mario movie coming in the Switch's lifecycle and Netflix having wishes of a Zelda series will just push Nintendo forward. It could give them more brand recognition and enlarge their target audience. If the Mario movie and Zelda series happens and does well, i can see them making more moves like this like a Metroid series or Movie (knowing Aliens as a franchise on screen pretty much died and the Metroid IP will get pretty valuable after MP4).

This is exciting times, glad Nintendo is finally loosen up.



What is the likelihood that Europe is being under tracked again? It and the ROTW are the two question marks that will be the deciding factors on the performance of the Switch being great or astounding.



PDiddy said:
What is the likelihood that Europe is being under tracked again? It and the ROTW are the two question marks that will be the deciding factors on the performance of the Switch being great or astounding.

Large I guess, but we'll find out soon enough in 3 weeks.



Top years through 41 weeks (VGC)



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Week 41 breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions
Xbox One: Down in all regions
Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions

Another week; Same old song and dance.

To answer a prior question: There is a slight chance that the Switch may be undertracked in Europe and Other regions. But there’s no way to be sure. The nest we can do is guess and wait until we get Nintendo’s official reports for the end of the quarter in late Oct./early Nov.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

PAOerfulone said:

Week 41 breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions
Xbox One: Down in all regions
Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions

Another week; Same old song and dance.

To answer a prior question: There is a slight chance that the Switch may be undertracked in Europe and Other regions. But there’s no way to be sure. The nest we can do is guess and wait until we get Nintendo’s official reports for the end of the quarter in late Oct./early Nov.

Nintendo's data will be out Thu Nov 5th.



mk7sx said:

Top years through 41 weeks (VGC)

Wow, Switch is just a hair behind DS in 2007 (about 150k).  It has a pretty decent lead on the other years (almost 1m ahead of 2008).  It's in a very good position to break the record.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
mk7sx said:

Top years through 41 weeks (VGC)

Wow, Switch is just a hair behind DS in 2007 (about 150k).  It has a pretty decent lead on the other years (almost 1m ahead of 2008).  It's in a very good position to break the record.

Yeah, DS 2009 sales seem like being the floor on what the Switch can reach this year, with a chance of breaking the magic 30M mark. Anybody who would have predicted that even just before the AC launch would probably have been declared crazy.



Seems like PS4 will be adjusted down a little bit YTD.