Now that we're officially in Q4 of the calander year (Q3 of the Fiscal Year) or the Holiday Quarter so we all understand, it's time to bust out some calculations.
Through Week 40 of 2019, all three systems sold through the following percentages of their final yearly totals.
PS4 - 62.18099956%
XBO - 44.71066283%
NSW - 49.65954887%
If those percentages were to hold (highly unlikely in the cases of the PS4 and Xbox One) than they would finish 2020 with these worldwide totals:
PlayStation 4 - 12,288,085 units
Xbox One - 5,037,950 units
Nintendo Switch - 34,100,674 units
As these final 12 weeks unfold, the floor is going to fall out from under the PS4 and Xbox One as we get ever so closer to their next-gen successors, and eventually when they arrive. Hence why I say those percentages are not going to hold for those two. As for the Nintendo Switch, it has no successor launching anytime soon and is selling at monstrous levels while STILL experiencing shortages.
But as of late, supply appears to have been improving for the Switch and Nintendo is beginning to catch up to demand. For one, the Animal Crossing bundle has been restocked and is being sold for $299 on Amazon, and it's currently #3 on the hourly rankings (Still in stock too.) And the regular hybrid SKUs aren't too far behind and both are listed at their retail price. So it seems like supply in the US is catching up to demand. Meanwhile, Japan continues to struggle with finding them in stores.
So, that 34 million number may be possible. If Nintendo ships that much, they're going to sell that much.
That is definitely a monstrous number for Switch. I really think the key question at this point is how much Nintendo can ship. It is very competitive for breaking the annual sales record this year, but enough Switches need to be sent out. I would like to see weekly sales increase before we get to Black Friday. That would indicate that Nintendo has upped their production and shipping ability.
It's going to be an exciting holiday season for Switch sales. That much is certain.