Since Nintendo’s Earnings Release is in less than 24 hours, I did some calculations.
After some crunching, I’ve got sold units at 59.1 million as of June 30th.
Under normal circumstances, the discrepancy between sold and shipped units is somewhere between 1.5-2 million units for hot-selling systems like the Switch and PS4. And even as low as 1 million units for less successful consoles like the Xbox One and 3DS.
But as we all know, these are not normal circumstances. And with the latest adjustments to the PS4 numbers, VGC now gas sold units at 111.6 million to fall under Sony’s shipped number of 112.1 million.
That’s a discrepancy of ~500k units. And given the situation and how limited stock has been for all 3 systems, I think that’s about right.
When you have a system where demand is so high that it’s selling through shipments as fast as they’re being manufactured, I think the discrepancy can be lowered to about 500k - 1 million units.
And I bring this up for the Switch in particular because it gives us a ballpark of where we should aim for VGChartz tracking to be accurate. Since the PS4ms discrepancy is currently measured at 500k, and the Switch is selling and shipping at a considerably higher level than the PS4, then the Switch’s discrepancy needs to be higher as well.
The Switch is outselling the PS4 at a rate of about 150-200k a week, give or take. On some weeks, it more than doubles PS4 sales. So at a range of 150-200k, add that to the PS4’s current discrepancy, and the Switch should have one at roughly 700k. Therefore, the magic number in my view is 59.8.
59.8 million units; From my perspective, that’s what the number needs to be for tracking to be accurate. Anything lower would mean the Switch is overtracked. Anything higher would mean it’s undertracked.
59.8m LTD would mean 4.03m shipped in fiscal Q1.
Sell-through during this timeframe in Japan has been 0.96m; 1.75-1.80m in the USA (no exact numbers for June known). That's 2.7-2.75m in those two countries alone, so filling up those 4.03m with sales from the rest of the world is quite doable.
Alternatively, we can work with the LTD share of Switch shipments that Japan has which is just under 25%, so that would allow us to multiply 0.96m by 4 and round it up. Brings us to roughly 4m worldwide as well.
Hard to imagine Switch being overtracked by any meaningful amount. VGC numbers should be in the right ballpark, so it shouldn't be significantly undertracked either.