Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; Week 41

Switch could be overtracked but i'm sure it is doing insanely well if they are not saying anything all year. They can afford to just randomly announce stuff on Twitter currently and get 50k likes and millions of views. The period of April/June had pretty bad stock issues tho, July numbers have been incredible in Japan. Still expecting Q1 to be insane.



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PAOerfulone said:
Since Nintendo’s Earnings Release is in less than 24 hours, I did some calculations.

After some crunching, I’ve got sold units at 59.1 million as of June 30th.

59.1 million.

Under normal circumstances, the discrepancy between sold and shipped units is somewhere between 1.5-2 million units for hot-selling systems like the Switch and PS4. And even as low as 1 million units for less successful consoles like the Xbox One and 3DS.

But as we all know, these are not normal circumstances. And with the latest adjustments to the PS4 numbers, VGC now gas sold units at 111.6 million to fall under Sony’s shipped number of 112.1 million.

That’s a discrepancy of ~500k units. And given the situation and how limited stock has been for all 3 systems, I think that’s about right.
When you have a system where demand is so high that it’s selling through shipments as fast as they’re being manufactured, I think the discrepancy can be lowered to about 500k - 1 million units.

And I bring this up for the Switch in particular because it gives us a ballpark of where we should aim for VGChartz tracking to be accurate. Since the PS4ms discrepancy is currently measured at 500k, and the Switch is selling and shipping at a considerably higher level than the PS4, then the Switch’s discrepancy needs to be higher as well.

The Switch is outselling the PS4 at a rate of about 150-200k a week, give or take. On some weeks, it more than doubles PS4 sales. So at a range of 150-200k, add that to the PS4’s current discrepancy, and the Switch should have one at roughly 700k. Therefore, the magic number in my view is 59.8.

59.8 million units; From my perspective, that’s what the number needs to be for tracking to be accurate. Anything lower would mean the Switch is overtracked. Anything higher would mean it’s undertracked.

59.8m LTD would mean 4.03m shipped in fiscal Q1.

Sell-through during this timeframe in Japan has been 0.96m; 1.75-1.80m in the USA (no exact numbers for June known). That's 2.7-2.75m in those two countries alone, so filling up those 4.03m with sales from the rest of the world is quite doable.

Alternatively, we can work with the LTD share of Switch shipments that Japan has which is just under 25%, so that would allow us to multiply 0.96m by 4 and round it up. Brings us to roughly 4m worldwide as well.

Hard to imagine Switch being overtracked by any meaningful amount. VGC numbers should be in the right ballpark, so it shouldn't be significantly undertracked either.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Nintendo's numbers are in.

61.44 million units.

...

...

.. Holy Mother of God.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

Even if this were under normal circumstances and we went with the normal discrepancy of 1.5-2 million units between sold and shipped for the Switch. Two million less than Nintendo’s shipped numbers would be 59.44 million. That’s still over 300k below the mark with the estimates VGC has now!

It’s not just undertracked! It’s REALLY, Goddamn undertracked!

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 06 August 2020

Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

PAOerfulone said:

Even if this were under normal circumstances and we went with the normal discrepancy of 1.5-2 million units between sold and shipped for the Switch. Two million less than Nintendo’s shipped numbers would be 59.44 million. That’s still over 300k below the mark with the estimates VGC has now!

It’s not just undertracked! It’s REALLY, Goddamn undertracked!

The numbers were even better than I hoped for (5m). Switch sell-through should get a bump to just over 60m, leaving a difference of a good 1m between sell-in and sell-through.

That in combination with PS4 adjustments should make Europe look a whole lot different than what it was before.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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PAOerfulone said:

Even if this were under normal circumstances and we went with the normal discrepancy of 1.5-2 million units between sold and shipped for the Switch. Two million less than Nintendo’s shipped numbers would be 59.44 million. That’s still over 300k below the mark with the estimates VGC has now!

It’s not just undertracked! It’s REALLY, Goddamn undertracked!

Do you think it could potentially be undertracked by 1 million?



RolStoppable said:
PAOerfulone said:

Even if this were under normal circumstances and we went with the normal discrepancy of 1.5-2 million units between sold and shipped for the Switch. Two million less than Nintendo’s shipped numbers would be 59.44 million. That’s still over 300k below the mark with the estimates VGC has now!

It’s not just undertracked! It’s REALLY, Goddamn undertracked!

The numbers were even better than I hoped for (5m). Switch sell-through should get a bump to just over 60m, leaving a difference of a good 1m between sell-in and sell-through.

That in combination with PS4 adjustments should make Europe look a whole lot different than what it was before.

I've thought for a while that numbers seemed low in Europe. AC has usually been very popular in Europe, it would be strange for it to have so much less impact compared to America.



PAOerfulone said:

Even if this were under normal circumstances and we went with the normal discrepancy of 1.5-2 million units between sold and shipped for the Switch. Two million less than Nintendo’s shipped numbers would be 59.44 million. That’s still over 300k below the mark with the estimates VGC has now!

It’s not just undertracked! It’s REALLY, Goddamn undertracked!

And it was already doing so good in the comparisons vs last year. It could very well be doing 400k + a week currently in the middle of summer and still out of stock with no announcements and price cut. This is bonkers. Animal Crossing's sales shows it is the main reason and not Covid. The game is VIRAL and is a phenomenon like the first pokemon game tbh. Like i don't see the franchise topping that ever again.

But yea, i wouldn't have thought Switch was selling that well rn. VGChartz figures were already insane. Maybe it is doing way better than we thought in Europe after all.



Switch is really killing it!



PAOerfulone said:
Nintendo's numbers are in.

61.44 million units.

...

...

.. Holy Mother of God.

Did not see this happening, I thought around 59 million units as well.  This says to me that they are meeting demand even better than originally thought and still unable to keep up... And with it appearing that Sony/Microsoft not worried about stocking their current systems, Nintendo pretty much has several more weeks to themselves to sell units.  And I have a feeling that the holiday will be even better than last years.  Too many people are still wanting the Switch and Animal Crossing, I see a lot of shoppers going for that "bundle" over spending $500+ on the new systems.  I would not be surprised if the Switch is right around PS3/Xbox 360 numbers at the end of March 2021.



Nintendo with the Switch: