Crazy week for Switch in Japan. I have to say I've seen bigger shipments on that week in Canada and US so I wouldn't be surprised if it is under tracked here. Feels like only Japan is changing lately.

Week 33 Breakdowns:

PlayStation 4:
Down in all regions

Xbox One:
Down in the United States, Europe, and the Rest of the World.
Up in Japan (HA!)
Down overall.

Nintendo Switch:
Up in all regions.


Latest adjustments were made in conjunction with the release of July NPD figures... Those Xbox One numbers are just sad. But it's not just the Xbox One, all systems were adjusted down with the reveal of the figures. The PS4 and Xbox One this week sold the lowest they have sold out of any week all year. With the PS4/XSX launches looming closer, expect production for those systems to start ramping up and these numbers will likely continue to fall. These next 3 months, the console market will be almost entirely carried by the Nintendo Switch until the Next Gen twins arrive.

Imagine Nintendo also replacing their hardware at the same time, we'd probably hit below 100k total in weekly sales before the next gen launches...

One good thing that came out of Nintendo saying "Screw competition. If Sony and Microsoft want to measure sizes, let 'em. We're doing our own thing."

Week 34 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4:
Down in all regions.

Xbox One:
Down in all regions.

Nintendo Switch:
Up in all regions.

Covid or not; Stock or not; Doesn't matter to Sony and Microsoft. They have clearly moved on and are prepping for the next generation. Meanwhile, Nintendo continues to scramble to provide stock for the Switch.

Switch is currently up 92% YoY which is incredible.  Switch got a significant sales spike last year at week 38.  So if we apply a 92% increase up to week 37 and then flat the rest of the year, Switch sales will be 26.8m.  I would call this the floor on Switch sales at this point, because it is very likely Switch will be up YoY after week 38.  

The real limiter at this point seems to be Nintendo's production capabilities.  They amount they are going to sell is mostly limited by what they are able to ship.

I'm in awe how well the Switch is doing in the RoW right now. Sales have jumped over 100% compared to last year (1.3M 2019 to this point, while 2020 sits at 2.85M), and sales are really doing well.

Also, those 2.85M from this year so far are exactly what the GBA sold RoW - in it's entire lifetime! It's also already ~60% of what the 3DS (4.43M) and the XBO (4.76M) reached in those regions throughout their run.

Switch will certainly outsell the DS there and become the bestselling Nintendo console in RoW since the Switch will only need an additional 4.1M there to reach that goal, and at the current speed we'll be there next summer. From there, Switch will break up the Playstation block on top, which reads all Playstation for the top 4 - 2,4,P and 3, in that order.

Yep, it being over 90% YoY in late August has to be a new record for console sales. It'll start to lose the lead fast in September with the launch of the lite but this has still been an incredible run.

Week 35 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4:
Down in all regions.

Xbox One:
Down in all regions

Nintendo Switch:
Up in the United States, Europe, and the Rest of the World.
Down in Japan.
Up overall.

This week marked the release of the upgraded Nintendo Switch SKU last year which beefed up the battery, that release saw a noticeable hardware bump in Japan, which is why it is down this week in that region. But this also highlights a bigger stretch, we are now entering the brief 3 week period in between the release of that updated model and the release of the Nintendo Switch Lite - coming up on Week 38. Weeks 36 and 37 should still go off largely the same as they have been up to this point with the Switch comfortably building on its lead. But from Week 38 onwards will be the REAL test. Now, with the Super Mario 35th Anniversary Direct that dropped earlier today, it is now confirmed that Super Mario 3D All Stars is real and it will release on September 18th. And we all know that any time a Mario game comes out, Nintendo will ship more hardware in accordance with it, so there should be a very noticeable boost on the week 3D All Stars comes out... Which just so happens to be Week 38!! How about that?!
Now, I still don't think the level of sales for Week 38 this year will be on the same level as last year, but it'll be closer than I originally thought with that release. From then on, it's all hands on deck.

Seriously, Nintendo? Couldn't you release 3 weeks earlier to fit the theme here???