Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; Week 37 - Switch over 400k

It would be interesting to see 2013 PS3/360 performance against 2020 PS4/Xone performance.



Around the Network
xMetroid said:
Yea i don't expect Switch to beat the best calendar year for any console this year, atleast looking at the lack of titles and communication rn.
But i do think the pandemic is not the only factor here has MANY places have pretty much everything opened up now, just need to wear a mask. So the sales rn are mostly due to Word of mouth created by the pandemic and Animal crossing. But seeing how wildly popular animal crossing is, how every update is literally going #1 trending on Youtube, it is the main reason. I do not think the PS4 and the Xbox one could have still boost as big in % as the Switch even if they had stock.

Peak calendar year for both Wii and DS was 2008.  VGChartz has these numbers listed for 2008

Wii 24,188,263
DS 29,663,772

I DO think it is likely that Switch will beat Wii's top calendar year.  I DO NOT think it is likely that Switch will beat DS's top calendar year.  Animal Crossing + COVID + 2019 momentum has turbo charged Switch sales this year and they are in short supply in both Japan and North America (and perhaps other places as well).  On top of that Nintendo has announced that there haven't been any significant setbacks to software development, so expect more titles to come for the rest of the year. 

This year is going to be one for the record books.  I don't expect it to top the DS, but it's going to beat every home console year to date.



With Sony releasing their latest Earnings Release and updated Financial Data. We now know that PS4 shipments, as of June 30th, were at 112.1 million units. Before, VGChartz had sold units at roughly ~120 million, which meant that it was slightly overtracked.

Adjustments were made, I went in and looked for them, I did some math, and now the new figures have been posted to the tables. The U.S. and Japan numbers are the same. The adjustments were made in Europe and the Rest of the World, with both regions being adjusted down. As a result, Europe is clinging to its YoY advantage, which won't last very long as PS4 weekly sales continue to drop to pre-COVID levels. And now, the Worldwide deficit has gone from ~300k to a little over ~600k.

Microsoft and Nintendo have yet to release their updated figures.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

Interesting. I think the 9 million forecast is going to be pretty accurate.



xMetroid said:
Interesting. I think the 9 million forecast is going to be pretty accurate.

No, it wont, you are just nintendo fanboy and always saying everything good even more than good for their consoles and the most worst possible thing for other consoles. PS4 is down around 600k from the last year until now, therefore until the end of the year it can go up to 1-2M at max down, so PS4 have to finish with around 11-12M for this year, far ahead of your pesimistic (fanboism than only nintendo have to be the greatest and every other have to be very very bad) 9M prediction. PS4 is now 6.3M so according to you PS4 will sell only about 2.7M for another 5 months with christmas and possibly holiday deals ? impossible

I know PS5 is releasing maybe november, that's why I am taking into account some 2 to 3M down from 2019 sales, then PS4 sold 14.2M units so this year with little normal drop and PS5 releasing PS4 should reach around 11-12M.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 05 August 2020

Around the Network
yo33331 said:
xMetroid said:
Interesting. I think the 9 million forecast is going to be pretty accurate.

No, it wont, you are just nintendo fanboy and always saying everything good even more than good for their consoles and the most worst possible thing for other consoles. PS4 is down around 600k from the last year until now, therefore until the end of the year it can go up to 1-2M at max down, so PS4 have to finish with around 11-12M for this year, far ahead of your pesimistic (fanboism than only nintendo have to be the greatest and every other have to be very very bad) 9M prediction. PS4 is now 6.3M so according to you PS4 will sell only about 2.7M for another 5 months with christmas and possibly holiday deals ? impossible

I know PS5 is releasing maybe november, that's why I am taking into account some 2 to 3M down from 2019 sales, then PS4 sold 14.2M units so this year with little normal drop and PS5 releasing PS4 should reach around 11-12M.

I mean did 1.9 million this quarter with Corona virus boost and it's biggest exclusive of the whole generation, beating PS records. It is slowing down, 1k a week in japan and 160k WW (which might get adjusted down like Q1). It is out of stock and they don't care about putting more out there. Sony is expecting 9 millions if i'm not mistaken so i'm just going according to their projections since they don't seem to be willing to sell any more than that. This holiday season they will probably make sure the PS4 is out of the way. Maybe it will reach 10 milloins, but 12 is not happening unless they do a sale or something.



yo33331 said:
xMetroid said:
Interesting. I think the 9 million forecast is going to be pretty accurate.

No, it wont, you are just nintendo fanboy and always saying everything good even more than good for their consoles and the most worst possible thing for other consoles. PS4 is down around 600k from the last year until now, therefore until the end of the year it can go up to 1-2M at max down, so PS4 have to finish with around 11-12M for this year, far ahead of your pesimistic (fanboism than only nintendo have to be the greatest and every other have to be very very bad) 9M prediction. PS4 is now 6.3M so according to you PS4 will sell only about 2.7M for another 5 months with christmas and possibly holiday deals ? impossible

I know PS5 is releasing maybe november, that's why I am taking into account some 2 to 3M down from 2019 sales, then PS4 sold 14.2M units so this year with little normal drop and PS5 releasing PS4 should reach around 11-12M.

Fiscal year is not the same as calendar year.



German YouTuber and Streamer:

Me trying to write reviews:
Octopath Traveler

Amazon 2020 thread

okay, my bad, I talked about the calendar year, for the fiscal year I can't make predictions yet.



Since Nintendo’s Earnings Release is in less than 24 hours, I did some calculations.

After some crunching, I’ve got sold units at 59.1 million as of June 30th.

59.1 million.

Under normal circumstances, the discrepancy between sold and shipped units is somewhere between 1.5-2 million units for hot-selling systems like the Switch and PS4. And even as low as 1 million units for less successful consoles like the Xbox One and 3DS.

But as we all know, these are not normal circumstances. And with the latest adjustments to the PS4 numbers, VGC now gas sold units at 111.6 million to fall under Sony’s shipped number of 112.1 million.

That’s a discrepancy of ~500k units. And given the situation and how limited stock has been for all 3 systems, I think that’s about right.
When you have a system where demand is so high that it’s selling through shipments as fast as they’re being manufactured, I think the discrepancy can be lowered to about 500k - 1 million units.

And I bring this up for the Switch in particular because it gives us a ballpark of where we should aim for VGChartz tracking to be accurate. Since the PS4ms discrepancy is currently measured at 500k, and the Switch is selling and shipping at a considerably higher level than the PS4, then the Switch’s discrepancy needs to be higher as well.

The Switch is outselling the PS4 at a rate of about 150-200k a week, give or take. On some weeks, it more than doubles PS4 sales. So at a range of 150-200k, add that to the PS4’s current discrepancy, and the Switch should have one at roughly 700k. Therefore, the magic number in my view is 59.8.

59.8 million units; From my perspective, that’s what the number needs to be for tracking to be accurate. Anything lower would mean the Switch is overtracked. Anything higher would mean it’s undertracked.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

PAOerfulone said:
Since Nintendo’s Earnings Release is in less than 24 hours, I did some calculations.

After some crunching, I’ve got sold units at 59.1 million as of June 30th.

59.1 million.

Under normal circumstances, the discrepancy between sold and shipped units is somewhere between 1.5-2 million units for hot-selling systems like the Switch and PS4. And even as low as 1 million units for less successful consoles like the Xbox One and 3DS.

But as we all know, these are not normal circumstances. And with the latest adjustments to the PS4 numbers, VGC now gas sold units at 111.6 million to fall under Sony’s shipped number of 112.1 million.

That’s a discrepancy of ~500k units. And given the situation and how limited stock has been for all 3 systems, I think that’s about right.
When you have a system where demand is so high that it’s selling through shipments as fast as they’re being manufactured, I think the discrepancy can be lowered to about 500k - 1 million units.

And I bring this up for the Switch in particular because it gives us a ballpark of where we should aim for VGChartz tracking to be accurate. Since the PS4ms discrepancy is currently measured at 500k, and the Switch is selling and shipping at a considerably higher level than the PS4, then the Switch’s discrepancy needs to be higher as well.

The Switch is outselling the PS4 at a rate of about 150-200k a week, give or take. On some weeks, it more than doubles PS4 sales. So at a range of 150-200k, add that to the PS4’s current discrepancy, and the Switch should have one at roughly 700k. Therefore, the magic number in my view is 59.8.

59.8 million units; From my perspective, that’s what the number needs to be for tracking to be accurate. Anything lower would mean the Switch is overtracked. Anything higher would mean it’s undertracked.

I didn't crunch any numbers, but I have a gut feeling that Switch is slightly overtracked.



1doesnotsimply