Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; Week 37 - Switch over 400k

PAOerfulone said:
I just posted the Week 25 numbers to the thread.

This week marks the release of Last of Us 2 for the PlayStation 4, and it shows. I'm somewhat surprised. The boost wasn't as big as I thought it would be. I actually think it may be undertracked, but time will tell in the coming weeks.

The quarterly report ain't too far off, I'm sure there we'll know more.

The question is, did Sony keep enough units at hand for this release or did they got blindsided by the coronavirus that they didn't have more at hand at the time?

Also, could it be overtracked in the weeks leading to the release and undertracked at the release itself if the total numbers will be spot on with the quarterly report?



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I have posted the latest numbers for Week 26 along with a few minor adjustments that @trunkswd made in accordance to data from the UK. The Xbox One was adjusted slightly down, while the PS4 and Switch were adjusted up.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

!!!WE'RE AT THE HALFWAY POINT NOW!!!

Therefore, it's time to bust out some calculations to track the direction all three systems are headed if they maintain their current pace.

So far, the PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch, at this point last year, sold through 42.86637705%, (PS4), 31.63096172%, (XBO), and 30.37839799%, (NS), of their final 2019 totals respectively.

If those percentages hold for this year as well, then the final 2020 totals for all three systems would be as follows.

PlayStation 4: 13,688,033 units
Xbox One: 6,248,729 units
Nintendo Switch: 33,837,795 units

For the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One, I would expect the actual final totals to be less than the projected totals due to the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X released this year and those are going to be the new items this holiday season.

As for the Nintendo Switch...
...
...
... SWEET JESUS CHRIST ON A STICK!!
There is absolutely, positively no way in hell the actual total will come even remotely close to that projected total. I mean... almost 34 million units in a single year?!? Not even the DS was able to pull that off! There's just no way that's going to happen. How can it happen?!? The COVID-19 boost has been beneficial for all three systems, but the Switch in particular has seen the biggest boost. That + Animal Crossing has lead to its massive increase YoY. It's strong, but it ain't THAT strong! I think ~25 million is more likely, which would match the Wii's peak year, but we shall see.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

PAOerfulone said:

!!!WE'RE AT THE HALFWAY POINT NOW!!!

Therefore, it's time to bust out some calculations to track the direction all three systems are headed if they maintain their current pace.

So far, the PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch, at this point last year, sold through 42.86637705%, (PS4), 31.63096172%, (XBO), and 30.37839799%, (NS), of their final 2019 totals respectively.

If those percentages hold for this year as well, then the final 2020 totals for all three systems would be as follows.

PlayStation 4: 13,688,033 units
Xbox One: 6,248,729 units
Nintendo Switch: 33,837,795 units

For the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One, I would expect the actual final totals to be less than the projected totals due to the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X released this year and those are going to be the new items this holiday season.

As for the Nintendo Switch...
...
...
... SWEET JESUS CHRIST ON A STICK!!
There is absolutely, positively no way in hell the actual total will come even remotely close to that projected total. I mean... almost 34 million units in a single year?!? Not even the DS was able to pull that off! There's just no way that's going to happen. How can it happen?!? The COVID-19 boost has been beneficial for all three systems, but the Switch in particular has seen the biggest boost. That + Animal Crossing has lead to its massive increase YoY. It's strong, but it ain't THAT strong! I think ~25 million is more likely, which would match the Wii's peak year, but we shall see.

Yea i also think PS4 and Xbox one will be down a little more, also considering the covid seems to have less of an effect these past weeks (unless we get adjustments again but we'll see).

For the Switch, i keep putting my own projections up like each month at this point. Don't feel like it will get close to 30 millions, that would be just insane and i don't even think Nintendo could produce that much, but i do think it should go mid 20 millions. 



PAOerfulone said:

!!!WE'RE AT THE HALFWAY POINT NOW!!!

Therefore, it's time to bust out some calculations to track the direction all three systems are headed if they maintain their current pace.

So far, the PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch, at this point last year, sold through 42.86637705%, (PS4), 31.63096172%, (XBO), and 30.37839799%, (NS), of their final 2019 totals respectively.

If those percentages hold for this year as well, then the final 2020 totals for all three systems would be as follows.

PlayStation 4: 13,688,033 units
Xbox One: 6,248,729 units
Nintendo Switch: 33,837,795 units

For the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One, I would expect the actual final totals to be less than the projected totals due to the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X released this year and those are going to be the new items this holiday season.

As for the Nintendo Switch...
...
...
... SWEET JESUS CHRIST ON A STICK!!
There is absolutely, positively no way in hell the actual total will come even remotely close to that projected total. I mean... almost 34 million units in a single year?!? Not even the DS was able to pull that off! There's just no way that's going to happen. How can it happen?!? The COVID-19 boost has been beneficial for all three systems, but the Switch in particular has seen the biggest boost. That + Animal Crossing has lead to its massive increase YoY. It's strong, but it ain't THAT strong! I think ~25 million is more likely, which would match the Wii's peak year, but we shall see.

No way any of the three will get near those totals. COVID-19 boost in game sales have skewed numbers for 2020. Unless there are some amazing deals this Holiday I expect PS4 and Xbox One to be down year on year when you compare 2nd half 2019 to 2nd half 2020. Switch for rest of 2020 will likely be up when you compare each week to the same week last week. But I doubt it will be anywhere near how much it has been up. What we NEED to know are the big Switch games for later this year. Right now we have Paper Mario coming out later this month and likely New Pokemon Snap. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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trunkswd said:
PAOerfulone said:

!!!WE'RE AT THE HALFWAY POINT NOW!!!

Therefore, it's time to bust out some calculations to track the direction all three systems are headed if they maintain their current pace.

So far, the PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch, at this point last year, sold through 42.86637705%, (PS4), 31.63096172%, (XBO), and 30.37839799%, (NS), of their final 2019 totals respectively.

If those percentages hold for this year as well, then the final 2020 totals for all three systems would be as follows.

PlayStation 4: 13,688,033 units
Xbox One: 6,248,729 units
Nintendo Switch: 33,837,795 units

For the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One, I would expect the actual final totals to be less than the projected totals due to the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X released this year and those are going to be the new items this holiday season.

As for the Nintendo Switch...
...
...
... SWEET JESUS CHRIST ON A STICK!!
There is absolutely, positively no way in hell the actual total will come even remotely close to that projected total. I mean... almost 34 million units in a single year?!? Not even the DS was able to pull that off! There's just no way that's going to happen. How can it happen?!? The COVID-19 boost has been beneficial for all three systems, but the Switch in particular has seen the biggest boost. That + Animal Crossing has lead to its massive increase YoY. It's strong, but it ain't THAT strong! I think ~25 million is more likely, which would match the Wii's peak year, but we shall see.

No way any of the three will get near those totals. COVID-19 boost in game sales have skewed numbers for 2020. Unless there are some amazing deals this Holiday I expect PS4 and Xbox One to be down year on year when you compare 2nd half 2019 to 2nd half 2020. Switch for rest of 2020 will likely be up when you compare each week to the same week last week. But I doubt it will be anywhere near how much it has been up. What we NEED to know are the big Switch games for later this year. Right now we have Paper Mario coming out later this month and likely New Pokemon Snap. 

Yea we do need that, some insiders are saying the end of the year might not be that impressive so let's see. I don't think they need much tho just games to satisfy consumers and the talking. The mario collection would enough with one new title for the holidays.



xMetroid said:
trunkswd said:

No way any of the three will get near those totals. COVID-19 boost in game sales have skewed numbers for 2020. Unless there are some amazing deals this Holiday I expect PS4 and Xbox One to be down year on year when you compare 2nd half 2019 to 2nd half 2020. Switch for rest of 2020 will likely be up when you compare each week to the same week last week. But I doubt it will be anywhere near how much it has been up. What we NEED to know are the big Switch games for later this year. Right now we have Paper Mario coming out later this month and likely New Pokemon Snap. 

Yea we do need that, some insiders are saying the end of the year might not be that impressive so let's see. I don't think they need much tho just games to satisfy consumers and the talking. The mario collection would enough with one new title for the holidays.

I'm hoping the rumored Super Mario 3D All Stars is real or some remaster / remake of the older 3D Mario games. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Switch could easily do 33 million or more with a price cut or pokemon snap bundle as holiday deals .



PAOerfulone said:

!!!WE'RE AT THE HALFWAY POINT NOW!!!

Therefore, it's time to bust out some calculations to track the direction all three systems are headed if they maintain their current pace.

So far, the PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch, at this point last year, sold through 42.86637705%, (PS4), 31.63096172%, (XBO), and 30.37839799%, (NS), of their final 2019 totals respectively.

If those percentages hold for this year as well, then the final 2020 totals for all three systems would be as follows.

PlayStation 4: 13,688,033 units
Xbox One: 6,248,729 units
Nintendo Switch: 33,837,795 units

For the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One, I would expect the actual final totals to be less than the projected totals due to the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X released this year and those are going to be the new items this holiday season.

As for the Nintendo Switch...
...
...
... SWEET JESUS CHRIST ON A STICK!!
There is absolutely, positively no way in hell the actual total will come even remotely close to that projected total. I mean... almost 34 million units in a single year?!? Not even the DS was able to pull that off! There's just no way that's going to happen. How can it happen?!? The COVID-19 boost has been beneficial for all three systems, but the Switch in particular has seen the biggest boost. That + Animal Crossing has lead to its massive increase YoY. It's strong, but it ain't THAT strong! I think ~25 million is more likely, which would match the Wii's peak year, but we shall see.

Well, let's not forget that the Switch combo is actually covering two different markets; the Nintendo console crowd and the Nintendo handheld crowd, so if Wii and DS were able to sell 20m each in the same year, then it is not out the realm of possibility for the Switch to reach 30m in a year.



Dyotropic said:
Switch could easily do 33 million or more with a price cut or pokemon snap bundle as holiday deals .

Not easily, maybe all that could push it to such level but i don't expect a price cut this year since they can barely produce enough of it to meet demand. Also the fact they are looking into making it's lifecycle longer than usual Nintendo consoles, i think a price cut in a time where it's momentum is peaking is not a good move.