Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; Week 31; Adjustments, Breakdowns, and Estimations

javi741 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I posted not too long ago that I think Switch will sell in the 21M-24M range for the current calender year.  35M is far too optimistic for the current calender year, because it's based on a comparison with 2019.  Sales in 2019 were very strong in the last 4 months or so and not as impressive before that.  On the other hand, anyone saying Switch sales will be flat compared to last year (or down) is being far too pessimistic.  We're almost half way through the year and Switch is up an incredible 80% YoY.  Those gains are not going to be magically erased by the end of the year.  

So right now I think 21M-24M for Switch.

I think 21-24 might be a little too low, for the Switch to somehow land in that sales range, it either needs to have 0% YoY growth for every week for the rest 2020 or start having a significant YoY decline in the Holiday Season which I find difficult to believe will happen unless there are major shortages. 

The Switch sales in 2020 Year to Date compared to 2019 is already nearly 4M units ahead of 2019, so the Switch would essentially need to have a 0% growth or a decline for the rest of 2020 to land between 21-24M sold for the year,which let's be honest, it isn't going to happen since week after week during this quarantine Switch sales have DOUBLED from 2019, to think that the Switch in the future anytime this year would go week after week having a decline or 0% growth at this point is unrealistic.

You brought up the fact that the majority of the Switch's sales came from the Holiday Season 2019 which may be hard to top, which is true. However, based on how much demand there currently is for Nintendo Switch's and even before this Quarantine and Animal Crossing Switch sales were up 23% YoY, it's hard to believe the Switch's 2020 Holiday Season will sell any less than 2019 since there's more overall interest in the Switch and this quarantine will only help spread awareness of the Switch even if it ends by the Holiday Season.

I believe 24M sold is the min for 2020, unless shortages become a problem

You may be right.  At this point it is somewhat of a shot in the dark, because we don't know what kind of games they will have for the rest of the year.  Also there is still a chance of a "minor" title becoming a surprise hit like Clubhouse Games.

However, what I do know is that the last 1/3 of the year was extremely strong for 2019.  Switch Lite + Pokemon + a bunch of other titles gave Switch a strong boost.  I am skeptical that Nintendo will have a lineup anywhere near that good during this holiday.  So, given their strong current momentum + a weaker lineup for the rest of the year, I think an assumption of them being close to flat going forward is not unreasonable.

Of course if they have BotW 2 and another strong game this holiday, then they will probably sell even more, but I am skeptical their holiday titles will be as strong as last year.



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Just added Week 21 numbers. All 3 systems are up again. The PS4 continues to slowly cut into its deficit, the Xbox One adds to its lead, and the Switch is closing in on a lead of over 4 million.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

Took me a bit of time, but I've just posted Week 22 numbers to the charts.
The PS4 is down this week for the first time since Week 10. However, with Last of Us 2 right around the corner, it won't be long before it's back up again.
The Xbox One and Nintendo Switch continue to be up YoY and Week over Week. The Switch has now stretched its lead to 4 million. It should continue to be up for the next couple of weeks until Week 26, which was when Super Mario Maker 2 launched last year.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

Wow, 4M lead for the Switch already - and that's before adjustments in the US because it got lowballed again...

Am I the only one who find the PS4 numbers a bit hard to believe?



4 million lead mid year is CRAZY. Since May NPD results i don't think it's possible for 2019 to be the peak anymore. Switch will easily surpass 20 millions this year, probably a high 22/23 millions. Which would put it has the best year WW for a console since the Wii/DS.

Nintendo's 19 million forecast i think was mostly expecting the worse from Covid-19 but clearly it turned out to help the console more. I wonder if that many people buying a new console now will affect the launch of the new consoles.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:


Am I the only one who find the PS4 numbers a bit hard to believe?

Sold Out in most places but maybe you are right it must be overtracked.....



It's crazy that if the switch sells just as much as it's doing for 2019 from now on. The switch will sit pretty at 23.2mil. O hope that's not the case so the switch even has a chance of reaching 25mil this year



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

xMetroid said:
4 million lead mid year is CRAZY. Since May NPD results i don't think it's possible for 2019 to be the peak anymore. Switch will easily surpass 20 millions this year, probably a high 22/23 millions. Which would put it has the best year WW for a console since the Wii/DS.

Nintendo's 19 million forecast i think was mostly expecting the worse from Covid-19 but clearly it turned out to help the console more. I wonder if that many people buying a new console now will affect the launch of the new consoles.

It's already at 23.2mil right now with the current lead. It might reach 25mil if Ninty has a real holiday seller planned.



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Eagle367 said:
xMetroid said:
4 million lead mid year is CRAZY. Since May NPD results i don't think it's possible for 2019 to be the peak anymore. Switch will easily surpass 20 millions this year, probably a high 22/23 millions. Which would put it has the best year WW for a console since the Wii/DS.

Nintendo's 19 million forecast i think was mostly expecting the worse from Covid-19 but clearly it turned out to help the console more. I wonder if that many people buying a new console now will affect the launch of the new consoles.

It's already at 23.2mil right now with the current lead. It might reach 25mil if Ninty has a real holiday seller planned.

Yea but i'm expecting some weeks to be weaker in the Fall and holiday season with the Lite release last year and pokemon.

The Switch will come so close to the 3DS this year uh. Pretty wild knowing it will not even be 4 years old 



Week 23 numbers + NPD adjustments have just been posted.
All three systems have been adjusted down over the past couple of weeks.
I still get the sense that more adjustments may be incoming but time will tell. For now, it's largely been the same as it has been lately. PS4 is slightly down, XBO is slightly up, and NS... Wow.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)