Those options are good enough...

It will break a million even with the chip shortage issues. If that ever gets resolved it could do a bunch more. It is still going to come down to a must have game that will determine how close it gets to the 360. I'm not sure how well Starfield will do in Japan, but a Series version of Minecraft sure couldn't hurt. Avowed or Fable may even be the breakout hit to get the momentum flowing.

Added lifetime OG Xbox sales using Famitsu data. If someone can find weekly/monthly OG Xbox sales for Japan I can add that in.

The poll question is really difficult to answer due to alot of unknowns, the biggest one being: Will Xbox start putting bigger focus into exclusive JP games, or at least bigger gamepass deals for Japan than they have been recently? Will Xbox invest in more JP first party studios, just 2nd party deals and Tango, or just Tango? Will Xbox be able to get larger Series X shipments to Japan anytime soon?

Here is what we do know:

• Famitsu doesn't track sales from certain Japanese retailers, most notably Amazon Japan, so all Xbox Series consoles sold there go untracked. As many as 20k+ Xbox Series may have already been sold via Amazon Japan so far this gen, untracked by Famitsu. Unless Xbox releases official Xbox Series Japan numbers at some point, we may never know the true sales there.
• Series S demand in Japan appears to be slowing. A friend told me recently that Series S has dropped from like top 5 on Yodabashi's website (one of Japan's biggest electronics retailers) to like 300th place, despite still being in stock. Series S will soon enough reach the point where it is no longer selling out as soon as it is restocked, where anyone who wants one will be able to go into a store that carries Xbox in Japan and walk out with one, and when that happens it is a sign that initial demand for Series S is close to being met. 
• Series X has recently received only small restocks in Japan, and many gamers in Japan seem to be waiting for a Series X currently
• Xbox currently has no 2nd party JP exclusives rumored for Xbox Series, only the Kojima cloud only one
• Xbox currently only has just 1 first party JP studio, Tango Gameworks, which seems to be planning to make a larger number of smaller games in the future, instead of being one big AAA team
• Xbox Series sales are currently tracking towards passing OG Xbox, but not Xbox 360, though the pace could slow considerably in the near future with Series S demand seemingly being nearly met

Taking all of that into account, I do think it will exceed OG Xbox, perhaps even by a fairly considerable margin, but 360 seems out of reach unless Xbox surprises us with some big JP 2nd party exclusives soon, or unless they acquire some big JP studios or a whole JP publisher like Sega, if that happens, 360's lifetime sales may come into reach and possibly even be exceeded with a Sega acquisition in particular.

It is clear though that Xbox is rebuilding their Japanese team, a Producer specifically for Japan in Xbox Game Publishing for the 1st time in years, I read the 1st time since the X360 days, along with hiring others, they definitely aren't doing this only for Kojima, otherwise they'd have just used a Producer from XGP in America.

Xbox is sending out $5 digital to some people this weekend, just got it myself for the first time ever I think.

Hopefully this translates to more GP deals this June showcase. Last year was like two things, that 2D game and Yakuza. I'm not too hopeful though. 

Yeah, last year's JP showing sucked for sure. I feel like it was probably due to Xbox policy last year of mainly showing games that would be day one Gamepass, I think only 3 games that were shown weren't day one gamepass. It is stupid of them to limit themselves that way, when they really need to be showing that JP devs aren't avoiding Xbox like the plague. They had been doing pretty good with JP (and other Asian) games on earlier Summer shows up until that point:

2017

• Code Vein reveal
• Dragon Ball FighterZ reveal
• Black Desert Online coming to Xbox One

2018

• Sekiro gameplay reveal
• Nier Automata Xbox Port
• Kingdom Hearts 3 gameplay trailer and Frozen world reveal
• Tales of Vesperia Definitive Edition reveal
• Devil May Cry 5 reveal
• Jump Force reveal

2019

• DragonBall Z Kakarot reveal
• Elden Ring reveal
• Phantasy Star Online 2 Xbox port reveal
• Tales of Arise reveal

2020 (Split between May and July shows)

• Bright Memory Infinite reveal
• Scarlet Nexus reveal
• Yakuza Like A Dragon reveal
• Balan Wonderworld reveal
• Dragon Quest 11 Xbox port

2021

• Yakuza Like A Dragon coming to gamepass
• Eiyuden Chronicle Rising and Eiyuden Chronicle 100 Heroes gameplay reveal, both day one Gamepass

2021 was quite the downgrade for sure. This year they really need to show that they are committed to bringing Japanese games to Xbox and Gamepass. They should aim to at least match their previous best of 6 JP/Asian announces/games from 2018 on the 2022 show; 6 or more between JP studio acquisitions (if they have any), 2nd party JP exclusives (if they have any besides the Kojima cloud game), 3rd party late Xbox ports (FF7R or Persona 5 for instance), JP 3rd party multiplat new game reveals, and JP games on Gamepass announces. 

Does he even have a choice in the matter?

Still, good PR after the business insider expose. 

I'm getting $ in my Microsoft account very often (not really sure why to be honest); I believe it some kind of reward when you buy stuff digitally (I use Microsoft TV and Movies too to buy movies). But I usually get one of those every 2 or 3 months and sometime the amount is as high as 20$.

I never really questionned those and I'm just happy it happens :)