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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales : Wii Fit versus Ring Fit (launch aligned)

Ring Fit Adventure Famitsu Sales:

  • 2019: 495.639
  • 2020: 1.591.366
  • 2021: 283.354

Wii Fit Famitsu Sales:

  • 2007: 818.166
  • 2008: 2.149.131
  • 2009: 588.258
  • 2010: 6.232

Ring Fit can overtake Wii Fit and Wii Fit Sports by the end of the year, last holiday again it faced stock problems - the game could have easily surpassed 2.1 million if they had sufficient stock through-out the year. Since this will be the peak year for Software, I'm expecting the game to surpass 4 million by the end of 2021. The only thing that could stop it are stock problems or a sequel.  



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noshten said:

Ring Fit Adventure Famitsu Sales:

  • 2019: 495.639
  • 2020: 1.591.366
  • 2021: 283.354

Wii Fit Famitsu Sales:

  • 2007: 818.166
  • 2008: 2.149.131
  • 2009: 588.258
  • 2010: 6.232

Ring Fit can overtake Wii Fit and Wii Fit Sports by the end of the year, last holiday again it faced stock problems - the game could have easily surpassed 2.1 million if they had sufficient stock through-out the year. Since this will be the peak year for Software, I'm expecting the game to surpass 4 million by the end of 2021. The only thing that could stop it are stock problems or a sequel.  

I was wrong about the game, it's a very entertaining piece of software and a good game.

Nintendo needs Sports Games with online+ coop, league, world records, online cups, etc. 

Last edited by Agente42 - on 21 February 2021

noshten said:

Ring Fit Adventure heading to 15M EOY World Wide, over 30M lifetime

Resell price has gone down a bit from ¥14,000 in mid August to ¥12,000 in September. Its still 50% profit compared to its retail price for resellers/scalpers. 

Ring Fit Adventure sales in Japan by Quarter:

  • 2020 Q3: 495.639(new)
  • 2020 Q1: 249.488(-49.66%)
  • 2020 Q2: 328.387(+31.62%)
  • 2020 Q3: 346.423(+5.49%)

There are three weeks left for Ring Fit Adventure until the end of Q3, if Nintendo ships 50K on average the performance of the game prior to the holidays will actually be stronger than it's launch quarter. Still, we've seen supply fluctuate and the average so far this quarter has been 28K, I hope we actually see a big shipment to end the quarter strongly. So I'm theorizing that although they are possibly stockpiling for the holidays they might be able to ship 200K right before the end of their fiscal quarter. For me, I'm still not entirely sure Nintendo will be able to supply 10 million copies for the remainder of the year but I think based on what we are seeing is that the game will easily surpass 3M in Japan this year if there was sufficient supply. 

  1. Wii Sports - 3.724.565
  2. Wii Fit - 3.561.787
  3. Wii Sports Resort - 3.165.464
  4. Ring Fit Adventure - 1.420.027

Ring Fit will end up selling above Wii Sports in Japan, by the simple virtue that the Wii only managed to sell 10M units in Japan, compare that to the Switch, the franchise is prime for growth. At the end of the day in Japan lifetime sales will probably end up beyond 5M because I don't think Nintendo will be in a hurry to release Ring Fit 2, I'd expect Wii Sports spiritual successor to not come until 2022 and it will probably utilize a different peripheral. Ring Fit is likely to be the only game that utilizes this specific peripheral this generation. So it would be a better idea of just updating this game from  

Aug Amazon update: 7 Aug

  • USA: #32 -> #18
  • Canada: #4
  • UK: #48 -> #54
  • France: #13 -> #7
  • Germany: #14 -> #7

Sep 6th Amazon:

  • USA: #41
  • Canada: #1
  • UK: outside Top 100
  • France: #16
  • Germany: #23

Media Create South Korea, Taiwan(last 5 weeks:

  • South Korea W31: #2; W32: #2; W33: #1;  W34: #1
  • Taiwan: W31: #3; W32: #2 W33: #2; W34: #1

In terms of Worldwide, we are seeing the game continue to perform very strongly in some of Nintendo's top markets. Based on these trends, I think we can expect Ring Fit Adventure to be around 7 million shipped by the end of the quarter. That's provided Nintendo is able to ship that many while stockpiling for the holidays. If there is sufficient stock built up for the holidays they could easily ship >15M Worldwide by the end of the year, with around 20% coming from Japan.

Also basing the popularity in Japan/South Korea/Taiwan - I'd expect the game to perform very strongly in China(it launched this week). Tencent is distributing the game and it doesn't contain the cartridge, and because it's being distributed and assembled to China, it's likely to be very profitable for both Nintendo and Tencent if ends up being the top-performing Switch game there. Tencent being the geniuses they are have been promoting it with unhealthy food. Overall China could end up being a major factor in the future growth of both the Switch and Ring Fit Sales worldwide if it ends up being the game that really becomes a mass fad there... I don't think supply problems for the rest of the World will ever be fully resolved. According to some users on Twitter the game sold-out online in China during it's launched(this has not been confirmed by a major news channel). 

Like I said a while ago, the creators of Wii Fit and Wii Sports are likely to have another game that could enter the zeitgeist and sell above 30 million. I don't think Nintendo has really pushed Ring Fit Adventure marketing-wise and they could very easily with a major update. But because it took them so long to scale up production after realizing it was a hit, now that production is finally at the scale needed - well sky and a sequel are the only limits. 

Lol



UPDATED...

I think it is done at this point, or do you think that RING FIT can have a decent boost for next Christmas?



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TGM3 MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Western record on TGM3 EASY : 1484
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

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UPDATED

This will be the last time I update it, the data for the WII FIT just stops while it was still selling around 6000/week, unless someone has a better source with the missing data.
The gap also between the sales per week and the total is showing a big gap now, if I sum one by one the weeks for the WII FIT I obtain a big difference:

The table shows 3,536,288 but the sum is 3,376,471

SOURCE used so far:

http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php/gid/2674



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TGM3 MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Western record on TGM3 EASY : 1484
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

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Wii Games vs Ring Fit Adventure

  1. Wii Sports - 3.724.565
  2. Wii Fit - 3.561.787
  3. Wii Sports Resort - 3.165.464
  4. Ring Fit Adventure - 2.843.132 

Holiday quarter coming up so by end of the year Ring Fit will be above 3.2 million, could very well overtake Wii Fit if Nintendo provide enough supply for the holidays. Next year the game should also overtake Wii Sports on it's way to 4 million lifetime sales by the end of 2022. 

Ring Fit Adventure Annual Sales:

  • 2019: 495.639
  • 2020: 1.591.366
  • 2021: 756.127

I think the game is going to finish with close to 1.3 million sales this year at minimum. OLED launch will be able to either confirm this by seeing a big week for Ring Fit or disapprove this, if it doesn't see a big spike in sells

In terms of WW results, I think that Nintendo can easily ship over 4 million units World Wide and hit my other prediction of 15 million for the year by end of 2021. Ring Fit could definitely be another evergreen and reach over 30 million sales lifetime on the Switch if Nintendo doesn't cut it's legs via a sequel too early. Next year Ring Fit will also likely benefit from it being the peak of software sales on the system, especially if they can scale production to meet demand, which they haven't been able to do so far, as the game is selling entirely based on how much units they ship. 



Wii Games vs Ring Fit Adventure

  1. Wii Sports - 3.724.565
  2. Wii Fit - 3.561.787
  3. Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo) - 3.330.000
  4. Wii Sports Resort - 3.165.464

With the updated shipment figures from Nintendo, Ring Fit is in touching distance of Wii Sports by the end of the year. Currently the game is sold out again in Japan and the resell price has gone up to Y11,800 on Amazon.co.jp. 

As far as lifetime sales in Japan at this point I believe that 5 million is a possibility. Like I mentioned originally and many times through-out the thread games like Wii Sports & Wii Fit in the end were hurt by the size of the Wii audience compared to something like the Switch which is likely to surpass 30 million hardware in a few years:

noshten said:

Ring Fit Adventure is currently been effected by shortages. According to Chris over on era, it had sold 99,50% of it's stock and it's being sold out as soon as it's being restocked. Nintendo need to be able to ship 1 million in order meet demand for the next few weeks in Japan. The main question is whether they are able to supply so many copies. If there are shortages, Ring Fit won't realize it's true potential this holiday season which is comparable to Wii Fit which ended up selling 3.561.787 on the Wii a System that sold only 12.750.000 in Japan. Switch is currently on pace to easily overcome by the end of the fiscal year.

Right now it's at 12.21 million WW, so with enough stock this holiday it could definitely reach 2.79 million in order to hit 15 million, its another matter if Nintendo supply that much. In the past two quarters they shipped 2.1 million copies of the game, so it would be logical for them to ship 3 million in the holidays but production could be the bottleneck.

Also I don't see many signs that it will suddenly stop to sell next year so its definetly going to be a game that eventually makes it's way to 20 million lifetime sales world wide. 

Last edited by noshten - on 05 November 2021

I didn't imagine Ring Fit would even be up there but it is well deserved. It is much better than Wii Fit. A DLC would benefit Ring Fit, tbh. And, though I am not keen on micro trans but I would pay for more options on character designs.



Wii Games vs Ring Fit Adventure

  1. Wii Sports - 3.724.565
  2. Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo) - 3.610.000
  3. Wii Fit - 3.561.787
  4. Wii Sports Resort - 3.165.464

This year the game should surpass 4 million shipments in Japan and 4.5 million will be surpassed in 2023, definitely has a chance of 5 million lifetime

2019 - 630K/630K

2020 - 1840K/2470K(+192%)

2021 - 1140K/3610K(-38%)

noshten said:

Wii Fit sold 750.229 not counting it's launch, with its launch it sold 1,011,000 by Week 1 2007.
Super Mario Party last year sold 936.140 by Week 1 2019, 590.513 of that total came from Week 46 onwards.

Week 46 2018: Super Mario Party - 20.942 / 345.627
Week 46 2019: Ring Fit Adventure - 28.015 / 263.940

Ring Fit Adventure is currently been effected by shortages. According to Chris over on era, it had sold 99,50% of it's stock and it's being sold out as soon as it's being restocked. Nintendo need to be able to ship 1 million in order meet demand for the next few weeks in Japan. The main question is whether they are able to supply so many copies. If there are shortages, Ring Fit won't realize it's true potential this holiday season which is comparable to Wii Fit which ended up selling 3.561.787 on the Wii a System that sold only 12.750.000 in Japan. Switch is currently on pace to easily overcome by the end of the fiscal year.

Like I said end of day a game like Wii Fit was limited by the size of the Wii userbase in Japan. 

Ring Fit has achieved this huge numbers despite not getting bundled and while being one of the most expensive first party games by Nintendo due to the peripheral.  



Wii Fit was amazing but no as good as Wii Music.