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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 26 October 2019

curl-6 said:
KBG29 said:

Wow, thanks for setting me straight. I don't know what I was thinking when I wrote that. 

Don't sweat it, we all get things wrong sometimes. In January 2017 I predicted Switch wouldn't outsell the Gamecube.

We all have had wrong predictions. With the 3DS and PS Vita launching at the same price I thought the PS Vita would stand a better chance against the 3DS. Than Nintendo quickly dropped the price of the 3DS and the PS Vita was pretty much dead on arrival. 



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KBG29 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch 36% up YOY, very nice.

So much for claims that 2018 would be its peak year.

Really? Who would have thought 2018 was peak?

I think we could have made a pretty strong case for 2019 being the peak year as far back as 2017, but was there ever really a case to be made for 2018?

With a proper Pokemon title this year, the Lite model, and very likely a good Black Friday deal, combine with the introduction on PS5 and XB4 in 2020, I think it is almost a certainty that 2019 will be the peak for Switch.

The only question going forward is, is it the next DS, or will it follow in the foot steps of Wii and 3DS, and just hit a wall?

First year buyers, and particularly first few months buyers (I suspect PS5 and XB4 will launch late 2020 for holidays perhaps), are usually just the hardcores. More casuals will wait until the software lineup fills a bit more, for marketing to focus on them, and for price cuts on consoles/games. I think, if these two launch late enough 2020, that 2020 could perhaps be Switch's peak year with a price cut, potential pro version released, and the insane sellability/legs of Animal Crossing. And you never know, they could have a Pokemon remake planned for holiday 2020 of Diamon/Pearl for all we know.



By the way, great work to the staff for the massive catchup; the hardware sales are back to being less than a week behind realtime.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Dulfite said:
KBG29 said:

Really? Who would have thought 2018 was peak?

I think we could have made a pretty strong case for 2019 being the peak year as far back as 2017, but was there ever really a case to be made for 2018?

With a proper Pokemon title this year, the Lite model, and very likely a good Black Friday deal, combine with the introduction on PS5 and XB4 in 2020, I think it is almost a certainty that 2019 will be the peak for Switch.

The only question going forward is, is it the next DS, or will it follow in the foot steps of Wii and 3DS, and just hit a wall?

First year buyers, and particularly first few months buyers (I suspect PS5 and XB4 will launch late 2020 for holidays perhaps), are usually just the hardcores. More casuals will wait until the software lineup fills a bit more, for marketing to focus on them, and for price cuts on consoles/games. I think, if these two launch late enough 2020, that 2020 could perhaps be Switch's peak year with a price cut, potential pro version released, and the insane sellability/legs of Animal Crossing. And you never know, they could have a Pokemon remake planned for holiday 2020 of Diamon/Pearl for all we know.

Solid points. It is possible that PS5/XB4 won't have any effect on Switch until 2021. This is why I love watching sales, it is going to be some exciting times over the next 2 - 3 years with Stadia, Switch, PS5, and XB4! What is the market going to loook like by 2022? It could be a totally different landscape compared to today. I wish all competitors the best of luck.



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KBG29 said:
Dulfite said:

First year buyers, and particularly first few months buyers (I suspect PS5 and XB4 will launch late 2020 for holidays perhaps), are usually just the hardcores. More casuals will wait until the software lineup fills a bit more, for marketing to focus on them, and for price cuts on consoles/games. I think, if these two launch late enough 2020, that 2020 could perhaps be Switch's peak year with a price cut, potential pro version released, and the insane sellability/legs of Animal Crossing. And you never know, they could have a Pokemon remake planned for holiday 2020 of Diamon/Pearl for all we know.

Solid points. It is possible that PS5/XB4 won't have any effect on Switch until 2021. This is why I love watching sales, it is going to be some exciting times over the next 2 - 3 years with Stadia, Switch, PS5, and XB4! What is the market going to loook like by 2022? It could be a totally different landscape compared to today. I wish all competitors the best of luck.

It is exciting! And yeah I think 2021 is when Switch will start to go downhill considerably in sales. I have a feeling most games during the last year or two of it being the flagship will be budget friendly 3ds sequels, while they are secretly developing the launch eave for next gen. I also think we are likely to get Switch 2 either in 2022 or early 2023.



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Dulfite said:
KBG29 said:

Solid points. It is possible that PS5/XB4 won't have any effect on Switch until 2021. This is why I love watching sales, it is going to be some exciting times over the next 2 - 3 years with Stadia, Switch, PS5, and XB4! What is the market going to loook like by 2022? It could be a totally different landscape compared to today. I wish all competitors the best of luck.

It is exciting! And yeah I think 2021 is when Switch will start to go downhill considerably in sales. I have a feeling most games during the last year or two of it being the flagship will be budget friendly 3ds sequels, while they are secretly developing the launch eave for next gen. I also think we are likely to get Switch 2 either in 2022 or early 2023.

fall 2023 or early 2024. 

The true Mario 2d, Donkey Kong platformer, Animal Crossing, switch Sports. Tomodachi games. A metroid prime. Switch have too many games yet. And too much sequels. 

The unified team allows a bunch of games in same year. That's is unique in this generation for Nintendo. 

Best years =2020, 2021

Slow decline = 2022, 2023

Fast decline = 2024, 2025



Agente42 said:
Dulfite said:

It is exciting! And yeah I think 2021 is when Switch will start to go downhill considerably in sales. I have a feeling most games during the last year or two of it being the flagship will be budget friendly 3ds sequels, while they are secretly developing the launch eave for next gen. I also think we are likely to get Switch 2 either in 2022 or early 2023.

fall 2023 or early 2024. 

The true Mario 2d, Donkey Kong platformer, Animal Crossing, switch Sports. Tomodachi games. A metroid prime. Switch have too many games yet. And too much sequels. 

The unified team allows a bunch of games in same year. That's is unique in this generation for Nintendo. 

Best years =2020, 2021

Slow decline = 2022, 2023

Fast decline = 2024, 2025

Can you clarify?

Are you saying the next Mario 2-d game, the next DK 3d platformer game, Animal Crossing New Horizons, the next Switch Sports game, Tomodachi game, MP4 all have to come out before Switch 2.0 launches? And Botw2 I assume is a Switch game. If they do that Switch will potentially outsell ps4, but it could cripple the Switch 2.0 hardware sales if they have all these games come out exclusively for Switch and hardly anything to launch Switch 2.0 with.

And something else to consider is the fact that Nintendo is far more used to this level of graphics (Switch vs. Wii U games are barely noticeable) during this generation since they had practice with HD in Wii U. The next hardware will probably be another huge jump forward and, therefore, their development teams will probably be a bit slower again like they were with Wii U.



Switch will decline in 2021, and people will claim it's because of PS5 and Nextbox, but it won't be. It will be because it is completely normal for a system to decline in its 5th year. 



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

Switch will decline in 2021, and people will claim it's because of PS5 and Nextbox, but it won't be. It will be because it is completely normal for a system to decline in its 5th year. 

Honestly I think people will still make weekly posts in each sales thread about how impressive the PS4 sales are for a console which is X years old, could be 2050 and the fact that someone bought one at a post apocalyptic bootsale will summon a mutant to post on here about an impressive week for a system which is in its 37th year and we live in an era where no one has had electricity for 10 years outside of the potato plant ruling farmers.



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