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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 12 october 2019

zorg1000 said:
trunkswd said:

It depends on two key factors.

1: How many Switch and Switch Lites Nintendo can ship to meet the demand. $199 for the Switch Lite will put it more in the price range of parents more willing to buy one for their kids. 

2: How low is Microsoft willing to go for Xbox One deals this holiday season. Rumors are showing Xbox One S for as low as $149. Microsoft previously said the All-Digital Edition would remain $50 below the standard Xbox One S, so could mean the digital edition available for as low as $99.

Rumors are for the digital edition at $149, not the standard S model.

Either way the cheaper Xbox One than a year ago will help keep sales from dropping too much this holiday. At least in the US. Not that it will be enough to stop the Switch from outselling it by the end of the year. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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curl-6 said:
Ka-pi96 said:

It was probably more to do with the tax hike.

The typhoon only got here on the 12th, so it would've only affected 1 day of the week, and only in the Toyko area. The previous week felt the effects of the hike, but also would have included the last 2 days of the previous tax rate, with everybody panic shopping before tax went up, so we're only really seeing the full effect of it in this week.

The first full week of the new taxes definitely had an effect too, but I think the typhoon was also significant; the Tokyo area has a bigger population than a lot of whole countries and close to 10% of Japan's people live there, plus it hit on the weekend which is when a lot of buying usually takes place.

Next week will likely also be affected; I doubt buying gaming systems will be foremost on people's minds during a crisis, most shops probably won't even be open.

It is probably a bit if both that affected sales of consoles. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
zorg1000 said:

Rumors are for the digital edition at $149, not the standard S model.

Either way the cheaper Xbox One than a year ago will help keep sales from dropping too much this holiday. At least in the US. Not that it will be enough to stop the Switch from outselling it by the end of the year. 

True but S was down to $189/199 in 2017/2018 so I dont really think a $149 SAD edition will do much to prevent the 20-30% decline it's been showing most of the year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
trunkswd said:

Either way the cheaper Xbox One than a year ago will help keep sales from dropping too much this holiday. At least in the US. Not that it will be enough to stop the Switch from outselling it by the end of the year. 

True but S was down to $189/199 in 2017/2018 so I dont really think a $149 SAD edition will do much to prevent the 20-30% decline it's been showing most of the year.

I forgot it was that cheap last holiday. Maybe better bundles this year. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

curl-6 said:
Ka-pi96 said:

It was probably more to do with the tax hike.

The typhoon only got here on the 12th, so it would've only affected 1 day of the week, and only in the Toyko area. The previous week felt the effects of the hike, but also would have included the last 2 days of the previous tax rate, with everybody panic shopping before tax went up, so we're only really seeing the full effect of it in this week.

The first full week of the new taxes definitely had an effect too, but I think the typhoon was also significant; the Tokyo area has a bigger population than a lot of whole countries and close to 10% of Japan's people live there, plus it hit on the weekend which is when a lot of buying usually takes place.

Next week will likely also be affected; I doubt buying gaming systems will be foremost on people's minds during a crisis, most shops probably won't even be open.

Aye, the next week should definitely be affected by it. For one thing the typhoon was still going on the 13th, but also things don't just get straight back to normal after that kind of thing either.



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I am not really happy with this graph...

Would it be better to make the Q3 start from 0 ? or should I keep the complete FY2019 ?



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TGM3 MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Western record on TGM3 EASY : 1484
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

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Radek said:

The weekly sales gap between Switch and PS4 is getting smaller every week. How can a 6 year old console still sell over 200K every single week?

PS4 has almost no Microsoft competition like last gen. XBox One is a mess compared to X360. If MS wouldn't have screwed up almost everything this gen their console would sell + 50K every week and PS5 about -50K. No heavy exclusives really hurt XOne. PS5 still gets big exclusives regularly.



Amnesia said:

I am not really happy with this graph...

Would it be better to make the Q3 start from 0 ? or should I keep the complete FY2019 ?

For a purely WoW comparison I would prefer that all Q3 graphs start at 0.

Makes it more easy to quantify the cumulative growth.

Btw I have to mention that I really appreciate the work you are doing with your sheet!
Its great to have a comparison and extrapolation



Marth said:
Amnesia said:

I am not really happy with this graph...

Would it be better to make the Q3 start from 0 ? or should I keep the complete FY2019 ?

For a purely WoW comparison I would prefer that all Q3 graphs start at 0.

Makes it more easy to quantify the cumulative growth.

Btw I have to mention that I really appreciate the work you are doing with your sheet!
Its great to have a comparison and extrapolation

Thanks a lot !

The projection is only the last FY ship multiplied by the current "up by cumulation", so here it is :

16,95 M x 1,295

I will do it like this from now :

The blue and orange values in my table have been ofcourse updated after the multiple adjustments from VGC's team. The green one however are only the last numbers announced.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TGM3 MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Western record on TGM3 EASY : 1484
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

trunkswd said:
zorg1000 said:

True but S was down to $189/199 in 2017/2018 so I dont really think a $149 SAD edition will do much to prevent the 20-30% decline it's been showing most of the year.

I forgot it was that cheap last holiday. Maybe better bundles this year. 

The rumored $150 SAD come with vouchers for Sea Of Thieves, Minecraft, and Forza Horizon 3......two? of which are on Game Pass. From the looks of it any way. Pretty sure Forza Horizon 3 is off Game Pass, and has been replaced with Forza Horizon 4.

oops. I just realized that's what it comes with all the time.

Last edited by COKTOE - on 23 October 2019

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