If Switch stays above 200k throughout July and August I'll be impressed. If it dips below that i early Sept that'd be understandable, Japan especially is gonna hold their breath for the Lite.
I seriously think Nintendo are gonna have supply issues again from the release of Lite to the end of the year; Switch's sales were already really good, add both a $200 revision and the absolute onslaught of games it's getting in the last four months of the year, including Pokemon, Dragon Quest, and Luigi's Mansion, and I can see them having serious trouble keeping up with demand.
It's fairly insane, but if you take away the 60k sold in Japan this week, like... if literally 0 systems sold there, then the system would have still sold 230k Globally, the Switch has such a wide appeal to all markets they've really made a product which customers worldwide are happy with for all the different modes of play it allows.
Regarding the supply issues, don't forget that Nintendo are likely to have been pumping out Switch Lite hardware from their new manufacturing plants and they've moved some production from China to other regions just to make sure they've got stock which can sail into the US without being touched by any crazy border taxes if that becomes the issue it might do, the side result of this will mean that they've got more power to produce more of the systems.
In the week of Pokemon though... I think we're going to see a Holiday season number set by the Switch, I mean, deep holidays figure with 7 digits in it.