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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: 2020 and/or 2021 will be slow years for console/handheld gaming.

Cerebralbore101 said:

Alphadream has kind of gotten stale over the years. Their last critical hit that wasn't a remake was Dream Team. 

If Atlus were to provide the same support for Switch that they provided to the 3DS, it would easily make Switch the greatest console of all time IMO. 

I am worried about whether or not Atlus' EO Team, and especially Alphadream are up to the challenge to making full fledged console style games. To be honest I'm even getting a little nervious about the new Fire Emblem, and Poke'mon. 

Pretty sure the Splatoon 2 team is working on Animal Crossing: New Horizons. Right now, I'm looking at 2020 for the Switch, and seeing Bayonetta 3, 75% odds of BotW2, Yokai Watch 4, and New Horizons. If BotW2 gets pushed to 2020, and nothing else new got put out there, then it would be a repeat of 2018, as far as I'm concerned. 

But yeah, Nintendo does like to wait until 6 months or less to even announce stuff. I definitely see the potential for a massive 2020 on Switch. But I have to remember that this is Nintendo we are talking about. They've always ran out of gas around year 3 or 4 of a console, or handheld's life cycle. Even if we were to stack and align both libraries of WiiU/3DS together, we would see a slowdown in 1st/2nd party games around the 3rd year. 

For Example: 3DS' 3rd year was 2014. Nintendo put out Kirby: Triple Deluxe, Pokemon ORAS, and Smash 4 on 3DS. Wii U's 3rd year was mostly 2015. We got Splatoon, Mario Maker, and Xenoblade X. Poke'mon ORAS was a remake. So the combined 1st party output for the 3rd year of both systems aligned would be Smash 4, Kirby, Splatoon, Mario Maker, and Xenoblade. 

Compare that to a combined 2nd year output of 3DS/WiiU...

Bayonetta 2, Tropical Freeze, Captian Toad, Mario Kart 8, Dream Team, Pokemon X/Y, Animal Crossing New Leaf, Luigi's Mansion 2, A Link Between Worlds, and Fire Emblem: Awakening. 

And that's if we are going to choose to be generous and give Smash 4 to the 3rd year lineup. If we take Smash 4, and say it's a Wii U game, then it belongs in the 2nd year catagory, which makes it even more lopsided. 

If you look at the 2nd year list of the combined WiiU/3DS 1st/2nd party output it looks really similar to 2019. I believe that we are getting that epic 2nd year dump in 2019, the same as if WiiU/3DS were the same system in in their 2nd year. I'm skeptical about 3rd parties ability to move from 3DS to Switch. But again, anything is possible. This is uncharted territory in a lot of ways, and previous years' analysis can only go so far. 

That combined 3DS and Wii U comparison makes no sense because it piles together games that were released during different calendar years. Furthermore, 2014 was the 3DS's fourth year; the 3DS launched in early 2011, so that should be counted as year 1. I am also wondering about what qualifiers you even use to put games on the list because Yoshi's Woolly World released in the same year as Splatoon. But really, it's not important because that approach is flawed to begin with.

If you actually use calendar years, then it becomes apparent why Nintendo regularly runs out of gas. The 3DS launched in early 2011 and Nintendo put out system sellers for it, but by 2013 they had shifted their focus to the Wii U to provide that console with system sellers, so the 3DS suffered in return and that became particularly visible in 2014, the 3DS's fourth year. Since the Wii U was such a flop and the 3DS wasn't overly successful either, the reasonable decision was to build towards a successor, so 2016 was lame for both the 3DS and Wii U in order to kickstart Switch in 2017. You see, the cause for a decline in system sellers in year 4 of a console is that in the past Nintendo had to move back and forth between different consoles. However, this kind of transition does not exist for Switch, so the console that all of Nintendo's development teams are working on is Switch and as a result the high profile software output won't decrease.



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RolStoppable said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Alphadream has kind of gotten stale over the years. Their last critical hit that wasn't a remake was Dream Team. 

If Atlus were to provide the same support for Switch that they provided to the 3DS, it would easily make Switch the greatest console of all time IMO. 

I am worried about whether or not Atlus' EO Team, and especially Alphadream are up to the challenge to making full fledged console style games. To be honest I'm even getting a little nervious about the new Fire Emblem, and Poke'mon. 

Pretty sure the Splatoon 2 team is working on Animal Crossing: New Horizons. Right now, I'm looking at 2020 for the Switch, and seeing Bayonetta 3, 75% odds of BotW2, Yokai Watch 4, and New Horizons. If BotW2 gets pushed to 2020, and nothing else new got put out there, then it would be a repeat of 2018, as far as I'm concerned. 

But yeah, Nintendo does like to wait until 6 months or less to even announce stuff. I definitely see the potential for a massive 2020 on Switch. But I have to remember that this is Nintendo we are talking about. They've always ran out of gas around year 3 or 4 of a console, or handheld's life cycle. Even if we were to stack and align both libraries of WiiU/3DS together, we would see a slowdown in 1st/2nd party games around the 3rd year. 

For Example: 3DS' 3rd year was 2014. Nintendo put out Kirby: Triple Deluxe, Pokemon ORAS, and Smash 4 on 3DS. Wii U's 3rd year was mostly 2015. We got Splatoon, Mario Maker, and Xenoblade X. Poke'mon ORAS was a remake. So the combined 1st party output for the 3rd year of both systems aligned would be Smash 4, Kirby, Splatoon, Mario Maker, and Xenoblade. 

Compare that to a combined 2nd year output of 3DS/WiiU...

Bayonetta 2, Tropical Freeze, Captian Toad, Mario Kart 8, Dream Team, Pokemon X/Y, Animal Crossing New Leaf, Luigi's Mansion 2, A Link Between Worlds, and Fire Emblem: Awakening. 

And that's if we are going to choose to be generous and give Smash 4 to the 3rd year lineup. If we take Smash 4, and say it's a Wii U game, then it belongs in the 2nd year catagory, which makes it even more lopsided. 

If you look at the 2nd year list of the combined WiiU/3DS 1st/2nd party output it looks really similar to 2019. I believe that we are getting that epic 2nd year dump in 2019, the same as if WiiU/3DS were the same system in in their 2nd year. I'm skeptical about 3rd parties ability to move from 3DS to Switch. But again, anything is possible. This is uncharted territory in a lot of ways, and previous years' analysis can only go so far. 

That combined 3DS and Wii U comparison makes no sense because it piles together games that were released during different calendar years. Furthermore, 2014 was the 3DS's fourth year; the 3DS launched in early 2011, so that should be counted as year 1. I am also wondering about what qualifiers you even use to put games on the list because Yoshi's Woolly World released in the same year as Splatoon. But really, it's not important because that approach is flawed to begin with.

If you actually use calendar years, then it becomes apparent why Nintendo regularly runs out of gas. The 3DS launched in early 2011 and Nintendo put out system sellers for it, but by 2013 they had shifted their focus to the Wii U to provide that console with system sellers, so the 3DS suffered in return and that became particularly visible in 2014, the 3DS's fourth year. Since the Wii U was such a flop and the 3DS wasn't overly successful either, the reasonable decision was to build towards a successor, so 2016 was lame for both the 3DS and Wii U in order to kickstart Switch in 2017. You see, the cause for a decline in system sellers in year 4 of a console is that in the past Nintendo had to move back and forth between different consoles. However, this kind of transition does not exist for Switch, so the console that all of Nintendo's development teams are working on is Switch and as a result the high profile software output won't decrease.

3DS year 1 = Feb 2011 to Feb 2012
3DS year 2 = Feb 2012 to Feb 2013
3DS year 3 = Feb 2013 to Feb 2014 

Yeah, my mistake. I know perfectly well the 3DS launched in the start of 2011. I'm too used to systems launching during the holidays, and glazed over that little fact.